Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

153 
FZAK52 PAFG 022154
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-031400-
154 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1001 mb low near the Pribilofs will move SE as a 1030 mb high
develops over Chukotka and moves to the Western Chukchi Sea by Mon
afternoon. Low pressure will persist over mainland Alaska. High
pressure will push N over the Western Bering Sea Sun night and 
move to the Eastern Bering Sea by Tue afternoon as high pressure
extends N through the Bering Strait and across the Chukchi Sea.

$$

PKZ200-031400-
Norton Sound-
154 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-031400-
Dall Point to Wales-
154 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. NE winds 35 kt NW of St Lawrence
Island. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft subsiding. Blowing snow. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-031400-
Kotzebue Sound-
154 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-031400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
154 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1248 AM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively quiet weather is expected over the next few days
across Northern Alaska. A gradual warming and drying trend begins
today over the Interior which will continue into the middle of
next week. The North Slope will see less snow, fog and clouds
today as a front pushes off into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas
today. A weather system will bring a chance for showers to the
Yukon Delta on today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 02/00Z model suite initialized well when compared to
observational data. The models are in generally good agreement
with the overall synoptic scale pattern out through early next
week. Very few changes were made to the inherited forecast
package.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 517 dm low anchors a longwave trough over the
Bering Sea while a ridge continues to build north over the Eastern
and Central portions of Alaska and the Yukon. The ridge looks to
be in control over much of the area today and into early next
week over the Central and Eastern Interior. On Tuesday a
shortwave associated with a low in the Gulf of Alaska will push
into the southeastern Interior. Also on Tuesday, a shortwave will
push southward over the northwest Arctic and into the Interior on
Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...A warming trend in temperatures
will begin today and will continue for the next few days with
temperatures in the upper 50s today and the upper 50s to around
60 degrees expected by Monday. Winds are expected to remain light
into Monday but will bump up along and near the Alaska Range on
Tuesday as a thermal trough develops over the Southern Interior.
We are looking for dry conditions to continue over the Interior
today and into Monday. Chances for showers increase in the
southeastern Interior Monday night into Tuesday. Shower activity
looks to increase on Wednesday as a trough digs southward over the
Interior from the northwest.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Patchy fog this morning will
diminish through the day, but is expected again along the coast
tonight into Monday morning. Winds will be variable, but
generally less than 15 mph. Temperatures will remain cool, with
highs over the next few days in the teens and 20s, while lows will
be in the single digits to lower teens above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Patchy fog is expected to form
along the coast near open leads in the ice again tonight. Winds
are expected to be light and variable to 15 mph this morning, but
will increase today as a low moves into the Bering Sea. High
temperatures today will be in the 30s to lower 40s along the
coast and in the 50s inland. Some warming is expected for Monday
as a ridge builds over the area. A weak low pressure system
pushing into the Southern Bering Sea will bring a chance of rain
and snow to the Yukon Delta this afternoon. Otherwise no significant
precipitation is expected through the middle of the upcoming week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming and drying trend is expected begin today and continue for
the next few days. Temperatures will warm into the middle to
upper 50s on today and into the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday
and beyond. Relative Humidity values will drop into the 20s and
30s today in the Central and eastern Interior while values in the
Western Interior drop into the 40s and 30s. Minimum relative
humidity levels will drop into mostly the 20s on Monday in the
Central and Eastern Interior and into the 30s in the Western
Interior. Winds are expected to remain light into Monday. As a
thermal trough develops over the Southern Interior on Tuesday
winds in and near the Alaska Range will increase to around 15 mph
with wind gusts to 25 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers, streams, and creeks in the Interior continue to run high,
but within banks, with no known flooding issues. Some minor ice
dams have been reported, but with no reported impacts at this
time. Cooler temperature have helped slow the breakup, but warming
temperatures this week will help accelerate melt off again. River
Ice will continue to break down faster than lake ice, but extreme
caution should be used around all bodies of water. The Yukon
River remains solidly in place.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC MAY 21