Brisk Wind Advisory 169, NWS Fairbanks, AK

751 
FZAK52 PAFG 031242
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
442 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-040215-
442 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1003 mb low near the Pribilofs will move SE as a 1030 mb high
develops over Chukotka and moves to the Western Chukchi Sea by Mon
afternoon. Low pressure will persist over mainland Alaska. High
pressure will push N over the Western Bering Sea Sun night and 
move to the Eastern Bering Sea by Tue afternoon as high pressure
extends N through the Bering Strait and across the Chukchi Sea.

$$

PKZ200-040215-
Norton Sound-
442 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-040215-
Dall Point to Wales-
442 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-040215-
Kotzebue Sound-
442 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-040215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
442 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

886 
FZAK52 PAFG 032313
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-041600-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1010 mb low near Unalaska will move quickly into the North 
Pacific. A 1028 mb high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will build
south across the eastern Bering Sea and remain in place through
Wednesday.

$$

PKZ200-041600-
Norton Sound-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-041600-
Dall Point to Wales-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft subsiding.
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-041600-
Kotzebue Sound-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt becoming NE. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-041600-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

869 
FZAK52 PAFG 041150
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-050300-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1028 mb high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will build south 
across the eastern Bering Sea and remain in place through 
Wednesday while a series of lows moves across the Aleutian Chain.

$$

PKZ200-050300-
Norton Sound-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-050300-
Dall Point to Wales-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-050300-
Kotzebue Sound-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-050300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

May 21

945 
FZAK52 PAFG 042250
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-051430-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1028 mb high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will continue to cause
northerly flow through the Bering Sea into Wednesday. A series of
lows will move across the Aleutian Chain going into Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-051430-
Norton Sound-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-051430-
Dall Point to Wales-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-051430-
Kotzebue Sound-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt becoming NE. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-051430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
137 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

SYNOPSIS...Pleasant spring weather across the forecast area
through at least Monday. Some patchy fog and stratus near open
leads in the sea ice along the coast. Temperatures warming across
the Interior will help accelerate breakup this week as low
temperatures from the Yukon south only cool into the upper 20s.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...02/12Z Solutions short term continuity is good and they
are in good agreement today. Pattern is a bit on the weak side in
the midrange and the extended periods, so there is a lot of detail
lost and solution agreement is poor at best. Leaned on an equal
blend for most elements today. With potential for a more
convective seasonal pattern developing with make precipitation
showery in nature. Tuesday solutions are showing lifted Indices in
the +1 to -1 range, and none zero CAPE which is an early season
formula for afternoon shower activity. Temperatures will be
warming in most areas.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging has pushed northwest across the state
with 540 dam heights pushed west to the Bering Strait and north
over the Brooks Range and Northwest Arctic Coast. A 533 dam low
has developed over the Eastern Arctic Coast and moved over
MacKenzie Bay this afternoon, and will continue to move east.
Troughing to the south from the Northeast Pacific to the Pribilofs
to west of the Gulf of Anadyr. Troughing extends south over the
Arctic from a 516 dam low near the North Pole. Ridging over the
state will weaken as the troughing to the south moves to lie over
Yakutat to a 523 dam low over Sand Point then west of the Gulf of
Anadyr to a 534 dam low Monday. As the high pressure is squeezed
out a 548 dam high will cutoff and move over the Chukotsk
Peninsula. By Tuesday afternoon ridging will build back in as the
troughing weakens and the low over Sand Point moves to 100 nm
south of Kodiak City at 529 dam. At 850 hpa...A dome of warm air
to the east will with temperatures near +3C will slide over the
Tanana Valley the next couple days with temperature over the
remainder of the forecast area in the 0C to -10C range.

Surface...Low pressure over all the the Arctic today with weak
high pressure north of the Brooks Range and over the Central
Arctic. Weak trough has developed in the Tanana Valley while a 996
mb low is 300 nm south of Anchorage, and a 1004 mb low is near the
Pribilofs. By Monday morning troughing will persist in the Upper
Tanana Valley with a 1010 mb low near Tok and a 1011 mb low near
Delta Junction. The lows to the south will combine and move over
the southern tip of Kodiak Island at 999 mb. High pressure will
persist in the Arctic and north of the Brooks Range. Little change
is expected through Tuesday as the troughing persists north of the
Alaska Range with a 1009 mb low in the Tanana Flats. As low moves
to the Tanana Flats high pressure will build in the Copper River
Basin and the pressure gradient across the Alaska Range will
tighten with gusty winds developing from Trims Camp to Donnelly
Dome Tuesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds and sun. Some
patchy fog along the coast as leads start to open up in the ice.
Northeast to east winds 5 to 15 mph through Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain cool with highs still in the teens and 20s, while lows
will be in the single digits to lower teens above.

West Coast and Western Interior...A mix of clouds, but mainly
partly cloudy. Offshore flow will continue, so drier and warmer.
Some patchy fog near the open leads in the ice along the coast.
Temperatures with range from the 50s in the Middle Yukon Valley to
the 20s along the Chukchi Sea Coast. As mentioned offshore flow
will continue, with east winds 5 to 15 mph through at least Tue
along the coast, and light winds inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly cloudy through Monday with
some increased clouds during the afternoon and evening Tuesday and
a slight chance of showers. Winds variable to 10 mph through
Monday, then the exception will be from Trims camp north to
Donnelly Dome winds south winds will be gusting to 25 mph.
Temperatures warming with highs in the 50s to lower 60s through
the week. Overnight lows mainly in the 30s from Fairbanks south,
and in the 20s to the north.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure will persist
over the Arctic with low pressure in the Northeast Pacific and
over the Aleutians. Easterly flow will continue over the area with
ridging aloft. In the Interior expect some isolated afternoon and
evening showers Thursday, then a better chance of showers Friday
and Saturday as a trough aloft moves north across the area. Cloudy
conditions will prevail in the Arctic and with move leads opening
in the ice patchy fog can be expected. West Coast can expect more
of the same with a mix of clouds, but offshore flow will mean more
sun that clouds. Temperatures will be near or above
climatological normals for early May.

&&

.Fire Weather...Warming temperatures and drier conditions through
the week. Development of thermal trough in the Tanana Valley
Tuesday will bring some chances of afternoon and evening showers
south and east of Tanana for the remainder of the week.
Temperatures in the Western Interior will remain cool with highs
in the 40s and 50s. In the Central and Eastern Interior
temperatures will be warming with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Minimum Relative Humidity values in the 20s and 30s Monday will
rise into the 30s for the remainder of the week. Some gusty south
winds to 25 mph from Trims Camp north along the Richardson
Highway Tuesday, otherwise variable winds to 10 mph during the day
with light drainage winds to 4 mph overnight.

&&

.Hydrology...Ice from further up the Chena river and in the
Little Chena river has released and was jammed up against the
Wendell Street bridge today. The ice jam released around noon and
expect it to jam up against the University bridge for a while this
evening before releasing. Do not expect any issues, but we will be
watching it closely. There are currently no imminent issues with
the rivers, streams, and creeks in the Interior. They continue to
run high, but within banks. Warming temperatures will help
accelerate breakup on the rivers that have not cleared. The Yukon
River remains solidly in place in Dawson YT and Eagle, but
starting to see a few more open leads and water on top of the ice.
River Ice will continue to break down faster than lake ice, but
extreme caution should be used around all bodies of water. As
breakup continues things can change rapidly so for the latest
updates go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks, mobile.weather.gov, or
www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest Warnings, Advisories, and
forecasts.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.

&&

SDB MAY 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

AKZ222-030600-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
136 PM AKDT Sun May 2 2021

...Ice Jam on the Chena River...

A Ice Jam that developed on the Chena River near the Wendell
Street Bridge at around 6 am AKDT this morning has released and
the ice is moving downstream. Ice is expect to Jam at the
University Street Bridge this afternoon, and may back water up for
a couple hours before it releases and moves downstream to the
Tanana River.

Residents should be use extreme caution if they are near the river
as the ice moves through the area.