Dense Fog Advisory 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1248 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Still more snow overnight before we get some clearing
in the Interior. Clearing out west on the coast will continue, but
look for increasing clouds Wednesday. As one front moves east out
of the Arctic, another front will start impacting the Northwest
Arctic Coast Tuesday morning moving across the Arctic bringing
near blizzard conditions to Deadhorse west for 6 to 12 hours
Wednesday, and Blizzard conditons to areas east of Deadhorse.
See the latest Warnings, Watches, and Advisories at
www.weather.gov/fairbanks for details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...20/12Z solutions show some better agreement with the
ongoing storm moving across the state. Solutions are picking up
on a fast moving system that will impact the Arctic Coast Tuesday.
Another round of snow for the Interior Thursday, and what looks
like another significant event across the forecast area this
weekend. Going to go with an equal blend of the solutions today as
they are not showing too many differences. Temperatures will be
falling rapidly tonight as cold air surges southeast, so expect
gusty winds across a pretty wide area tonight and Tuesday in the
Interior.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Weakening ridge axis is over the Eastern
Interior as the low that was near Wrangel Island has moved to 100
nm northeast of Wrangel Island. The trough that developed over
the Dateline has come into phase with another trough moving
around the low and is over the West Coast this afternoon as the
flow aloft has turned more from the west. The trough will move to
the AlCan Tuesday morning as the low moves to 200 nm north of
Wainwright. Ridging associated with a 586 mb high over the North
Pacific will move to lie over Unalaska to just west of the Gulf of
Anadyr. Wednesday morning the low will be 100 nm north of
MacKenzie Bay at 498 dam, while the ridge will rotate to lie over
Sand Point to Emmonak, then over the Chukotsk Peninsula. A 499 dam
low will move over the Western Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...Cold is
going to start pushing back today. The 0C isotherm is south of the
Alaska Range. The -10C isotherm has been pushed southeast to lie
from Demarcation Point to Bettles to Nome then north of Gambell.
The -20C isotherm has push over Utqiagvik to Kivalina. By Tuesday
afternoon the -10C isotherm will lie from McCarthy to Emmonak to
Gambell, while the -20C isotherm will lie from Eagle to Huslia to
Shishmaref. Tuesday night and Wednesday will moderate a couple
degrees over the Lower Yukon Delta and Seward Peninsula.

Surface...Low pressure extends from the Siberian Arctic southeast
across the state with a 983 mb low 200 nm north of Wrangel Island
and a trough extending east to Demarcation Point, then southwest
into the across the Eastern Interior. A second front has moved
into the Western Interior and will move across the Central
Interior overnight as a 1007 mb low develops along the front north
of Fairbanks. High pressure will push north over the Eastern
Bering Sea this evening as a 1033 mb high move over Unimak Island.
The low in the Arctic will move southeast to 200 nm northwest of
Wainwright Tuesday morning with a front moving to the northwest
coast. As the low moves to 100 nm north of Utqiagvik strong
northwest winds will produce near blizzard conditions from
Utqiagvik west. As the low moves northeast Tuesday night those
conditions will spread east along the coast.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front is moving through Kaktovik
this afternoon and will exit to the east tonight. The low near
Wrangel Island will start moving rapidly to the east Tuesday
bringing near blizzard conditions to the northwest coast by around
noon, then spreads those conditions east through the day as the
low moves just north of Utqiagvik in the afternoon and weakens,
then merges with a 994 mb low in the Northeast Arctic. Blizzard
conditions developing east of Deadhorse Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will be cooling over the next couple days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some clearing in the northwest,
cloudy for the remainder of the area. A front will move south of
the Seward Peninsula with a chance of snow this evening, then some
clearing along the coast. Inland chance of snow into the early
morning, then clearing. Cooler temperatures as they will be
falling once it clears early Tuesday morning. Winds generally
southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming light and variable late
Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow has diminished, but will pick
back up overnight, mainly south of the Yukon River, before
finally tapering off Tuesday morning. Winter Storm Warnings remain
in effect south of the Yukon River. Blowing snow issues continue on
summits as winds above treeline are gusting to around 40 mph. For
the remainder of the area winds will be kicking up a little
overnight as the cold air surges into the Interior. West to
northwest winds gusting around 20 mph can be expected overnight.
Temperatures will be cooling, so the high for Tuesday will likely
occur overnight with temperatures falling through the day Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are are coming
together on another storm moving through the forecast area this
weekend. Increasing potential for 8 to 12 inches of snow Saturday
and Sunday, ending sometime Monday morning. Heaviest snow expected
to be mainly south of the Brooks Range at this time. Even though
this also has tropical origins, similar to the last system, it is
expected to be all snow this time around. This may impact travel
over the Christmas Holiday weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB DEC 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1019 AM AKST MON DEC 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY SNOW       50 E ANAKTUVUK PASS     68.10N 149.74W
12/20/2021  M5.2 INCH        NORTH SLOPE        AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ATIGUN PASS 20F 0.30"/5.2" STORM TOTAL.

1018 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 SE FAIRBANKS          64.82N 147.60W
12/20/2021  M8.6 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL 8.6INCHES.

&&

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