Brisk Wind Advisory 251, NWS Fairbanks, AK

686 
FZAK52 PAFG 221354
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-230315-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 mb low in the Western Bering Sea continues to push north 
and east and weaken rapidly. The low will push into Norton Sound 
as a 1000 mb low on Thursday morning as a ridge builds briefly 
over the eastern Bering Sea.

$$

PKZ200-230315-
Norton Sound-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-230315-
Dall Point to Wales-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Freezing rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Freezing rain and snow.
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 40 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-230315-
Kotzebue Sound-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-230315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

880 
FZAK52 PAFG 222356
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231515-
256 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 mb low in the Western Bering Sea continues to push north 
and east and weaken rapidly through Wed night. The low will push 
into Norton Sound as a 1015 mb low on Thu morning as a ridge 
builds briefly over the eastern Bering Sea. A 996 mb low will
develop in the western Bering Sea Fri morning.

$$

PKZ200-231515-
Norton Sound-
256 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Snow.
.SUN...SW winds 35 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-231515-
Dall Point to Wales-
256 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Snow.
.SUN...SW winds 40 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-231515-
Kotzebue Sound-
256 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Snow.
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-231515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
256 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Snow.
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Snow.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

296 
FZAK52 PAFG 231443
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-240330-
543 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure south of St Lawrence Island and high pressure over
Siberia will weaken as a 1013 mb low moves to the Gulf of Anadyr
by 4am Fri. A 999 mb low will move to the Western Bering Sea by
4am Sat.

$$

PKZ200-240330-
Norton Sound-
543 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Snow with freezing rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-240330-
Dall Point to Wales-
543 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Snow and freezing rain. 
.SUN...S winds 35 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-240330-
Kotzebue Sound-
543 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt increasing to 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-240330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
543 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The large storm that buried much of the Interior with heavy snow
and brought freezing rain to to areas to the west of Fairbanks has
now moved into the Eastern Interior and continues to wind down
with snow diminishing over the Central Interior this morning.
Gusty winds continue to produce scattered power outages in the
Central Interior as snow and ice laden limbs fall on power lines
and gusty winds over the summits produce low visibilities in
blowing snow. Conditions will improve later this morning as winds
diminish in these areas. Winds will diminish later this morning in
the Upper Tanana Valley where some blowing snow is expected as a
cold front pushes through the area. A second storm will begin to
impact the St Lawrence Island, West Coast and the Western Interior
tonight and Wednesday with another round of gusty winds, snow,
and freezing rain. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
these areas. Winds will ramp up along the eastern Arctic Coast and
combined with falling snow will produce low visibilities in
blowing snow around Prudhoe Bay beginning this evening. Blizzard
conditions are expected to develop over the far eastern Arctic
Coast tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 21/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
and upper air observations and verified well against the 06z
surface analysis. Model spread is minimal in the short range,
however as has been the trend for several model runs, considerable
spread in the mid range lowers confidence with the latest
guidance. Spread grows rapidly in the longer range model guidance.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a 485 dm low over northern Alaska combined with
a broad upper level ridge south of Alaska continues to produce
predominately westerly flow over Northern Alaska with strong
shortwaves moving east through the flow which bring periods of
strong winds, snow and freezing rain to Northern Alaska every few
days. This pattern shows no signs of shifting in the near future.
Relatively warm and moist storms with wind, snow and freezing rain
are followed by a cool down then another storm pushes east out of
the Bering Sea every other 3rd day or so bringing another round
of wind, snow, and freezing rain.

On the surface, a 994 mb low 250 nm northeast of Wrangel Island
will continue to push south and east and will weaken to 1006 mb as
it passes just north of Point Barrow this afternoon and is
absorbed by a 999 mb low progged to be located 250 nm north west
of Banks Island on Wednesday morning. A strong front wrapping
around a 965 mb low moving north and east in the Western Bering
Sea will push onshore on the West Coast of Alaska late tonight
and will continue to weaken as it pushes into the Western Interior
on Wednesday. A weak secondary low will push east over the
Northern Interior late Wednesday night and into Thursday bringing
another round of snow and freezing rain for the YK Delta and more
snow for the Western and Central Interior late Wednesday night
and Thursday. Snow will move into the Eastern Interior south of
the Yukon River on Thursday. A broad area of high pressure will
build back north again over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western
Alaska on Friday. Another round of precipitation moves into
Western Alaska on Saturday with a weak low pressure system. A deep
low pressure system moves north and east into the Northern Bering
Sea with another round of heavy snow expected to impact western
Alaska on Sunday. The heavy snow associated with this strong low
moves east into the Western and Central Interior late Sunday into
Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The low near Wrangel Island will
start moving rapidly to the east today bringing near blizzard
conditions to the northwest coast by around noon. The low then
spreads those conditions east through the day today as the low
moves just north of Utqiagvik in the afternoon and weakens, then
merges with a 994 mb low in the Northeast Arctic. Near blizzard
conditions are expected to develop tonight in the Prudhoe Bay area
with blizzard conditions developing to the east of Deadhorse
tonight. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire
Arctic Coast to the west of Prudhoe Bay and a Blizzard Warning has
been issued for the Arctic Coast to the east of Prudhoe Bay.
Temperatures will be cooling over the next couple days.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear conditions this
morning along the West Coast will become cloudy and winds, and
snow will increase as the next front approaches the coast this
evening. Mixed precip is again possible in the lower YK Delta late
tonight and tomorrow morning before a switch back to all snow
occurs tomorrow afternoon. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast, the
lower YK Delta, the lower Yukon Valley as well as the as well as
for the Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys where 4 to 7 inches
of snow are expected.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow continues to diminish as a
front continues to sweep south and east into the Eastern Interior
this morning. Blowing snow issues continue on summits as winds
above treeline continue to be gusty as cold air surges into the
Interior. West to northwest winds gusting around 20 mph occurred
at many locations overnight causing additional scattered power
outages as snow and ice laden tree limbs came down. Winds continue
to diminish in the Central Interior as the front pushes east.
Expect a brief period of blowing snow in the Upper Tanana Vally as
winds gusty northwest winds push into the area. The winds and
blowing snow will diminish this afternoon. Temperatures will
continue to cool today over the area with temperatures falling
through the day.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Long range models continue to
indicate another storm moving through the forecast area this
weekend. Increasing potential for heavy snow Saturday and Sunday,
ending sometime Monday morning. Heaviest snow expected to be
mainly south of the Brooks Range at this time. Even though this
also has tropical origins, similar to the last system, it is
expected to be all snow this time around. This may impact travel
over the Christmas Holiday weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ224.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CCC DEC 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

AKZ222-223-221500-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha, Delta Junction,
Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake,
and Healy Lake
214 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...More Snow For the Interior Wednesday Night...

Another weather front will move into the Interior Wednesday
evening, with snow reaching the Fairbanks area by Wednesday
night. Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected for the
Fairbanks area, with higher amounts up to 6 inches possible
further south and east. Motorists should prepare for difficult
travel conditions, especially on roads that have not been plowed
from the recent winter storm.

For the latest weather updates, visit www.weather.gov/fairbanks.