Brisk Wind Advisory 54, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
710 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies over the Interior yesterday allowed temperatures
to drop pretty rapidly resulting in the return of 30's and 40's
below this morning. A low pressure system moving NE towards the
Seward Peninsula today will bring weather in the form of snow,
blowing snow, and gusty winds along coastal areas and St. Lawrence
Island. Temperatures will warm slightly for the West Coast and
Western Interior as a result of this frontal system. Cold Arctic
air will persist for the North Slope and Yukon Flats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...
Models verified pretty well with the exception of the low
approaching the Seward Peninsula. Winds are nudged up in the
forecast for the West Coast and Bering as the low is 8 mb deeper
than any model forecasted. Expect this system to remain around 4-8
mb stronger than models painted through Saturday. Therefore, the
pressure gradient between this stronger low and and Interior high
will be tighter. Other than this discrepancy, we used a blend of
models for the rest of days 1 through 3 forecast package.

Aloft...
An upper level ridge exists from Southcentral northwest into
Kotzebue, with troughs extending into the Y-K Delta and Eastern
Brooks Range. The aforementioned ridge will phase out as the
trough extending from the Arctic and Canada pushes south and west
over the state. This will be the big picture heading into next
week as temperatures once again plummet from the North Slope
south to the Interior. Another upper level ridge will wedge itself
into SW Alaska into this weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Cloud cover will return from the SW as a front entering the West
Coast will eventually make it's way to the Interior this evening
and Saturday. Around 1 to 2 inches of new snow will occur
following it's dissipation late Saturday night. Expect wind
chills tonight and tomorrow night in the higher elevations north
of Fairbanks along the Elliott, Dalton, and Steese Highways. After
today, temperatures will warm some, but not for long as cold
temperatures return early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow is spreading northeast into the Y-K Delta, St. Lawrence
Island, and lower Seward Peninsula this morning with it spreading
inland and north into the day today. Snowfall amounts generally
light, but winds will create some travel issues as visibility
will be poor at times. Winds will be on the downward trend into
Saturday. Wind chills are occurring in the upper Kobuk and Noatak
Valleys this morning. Temperatures warming from the SW.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Very cold wind chills from Deadhorse east to the Canadian border.
Cold wind chills also continue on the Northwest Coast, such as at
Point Lay. Westerly winds will increase for the eastern Arctic
beginning Saturday, so expect wind chills to continue. Generally
clear skies will continue with some stratus and patchy fog
floating around as per usual along the Arctic Coast. Temperatures
will remain cold with temperatures dipping even colder into next
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
Temperatures cooling into next week as a strong push of cold air
from the the Arctic moves south down the West Coast while the cold
air hangs on in the Interior. Models still trying to grasp on how
strong this trough of cold air will be entering from the Arctic
and upper Yukon Territory of Canada into mid-week. A front moving into
the Interior will bring another chance of snow to the Interior
the middle of next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

KS FEB 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

AKZ218>226-070000-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
204 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...Very Cold Week Ahead...

Temperatures across the Interior will fall into the 30s to 50s
below next week. Highs will only reach to 20s below.

A strong push of cold air out of the Arctic will bring some of the
coldest temperatures to the Interior that some areas have seen in
the last few years.

Residents should prepare for the cold as temperatures will create
hazardous outdoor conditions.

For the latest Weather Warnings and Forecasts go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks.