Brisk Wind Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

365 
FZAK52 PAFG 052335
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
235 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-061530-
235 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1002 MB low in the Bering Strait will dissipate overnight. A 
1055 MB high over the North Pole will strengthen to 1065 MB by 
Mon and move to 500 NM north of Deadhorse. A 976 MB low southwest
of Shemya will move into the bay of Okhotsk on Sun and weaken.

$$

PKZ200-061530-
Norton Sound-
235 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ210-061530-
Dall Point to Wales-
235 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ215-061530-
Kotzebue Sound-
235 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ220-061530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
235 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PROTON Feb 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

SYNOPSIS...Skies clearing with temperatures falling in the
Interior to 20 to 35 below in most areas tonight. Bitter cold in
the Arctic continues with some relief in sight for the weekend as
they warm slightly. Wind chill will continue to be an issue, but
winds will be slowly diminishing. Expect a return of Wind Chill
issues Friday night and Saturday. Blizzard conditions on St
Lawrence Island will continue through the evening with some
improvement overnight, but conditions will still be poor as snow
continues and visibility will remain poor even as the winds
diminish. Snow on the Seward Peninsula tapering off overnight as
snow spreads north into the Lower Yukon Delta tonight and
continues north Friday.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...04/12Z solutions are in good agreement through the
weekend aloft, then things get real interesting as solutions are
going different directions aloft for the extended periods.
The precipitation solutions are in generally good agreement out
west, but the ECMWF is a bit too aggressive so will lean a little
more toward the NAM and GFS this cycle. Winds are a bit stronger
than anticipated in the Arctic and solutions have not caught on,
so will be kicking them up a bit. Temperatures will be falling
hard this evening so will speed that up as well.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Closed low over the Brooks Range is
weakening and sliding southeast. Troughing associated with the 491
dam low in the Canadian Archipelago is swinging south over Arctic
and is just offshore of the Eastern Arctic. Ridging over the
Northeast Pacific extends northwest over Bristol Bay to the
Chukchi Sea and northwest to a 551 dam low high in the Siberian
Arctic. A trough associated with a 487 dam low in the Sea of
Ohkotsk extends southeast across the Western Bering Sea to the
Central Aleutians, then south. By Friday morning the trough in the
Bering Sea will move to lie over the Northern Bering Sea to St
Matthew Island, then southeast over Sand Point. The riding will be
pushed east to lie from Prince William Sound to Point Hope then
northwest. The trough over the Arctic will be over the Coast
extending west to Point Lay. Friday afternoon the ridging will
remain in place as the trough to the west pushes east to lie from
Northern Kodiak Island to St Lawrence Island, then west. The
trough over the Arctic Coast will weaken as it slides south over
the Brooks Range. At 850 hpa...Temperatures remain cool with -20C
isotherm lying from the Top of the World Highway crossing to Delta
Junction to Tanana to Kotzebue this afternoon. It will push south
a bit this evening, then starts moving back north and east and
will lie from the AlCan Border Crossing to Bettles to Utqiagvik by
Friday afternoon. A surge of warm air will push north over the
southwest mainland and Norton Sound Region with temperatures
nearing 0C Friday.

Surface...High pressure associated with a 1056 dam high 600 nm
northwest of Wrangel Island extends southeast to a developing 1044
mb high over the Arctic Plain, then south over the Western
Interior to a 1026 mb high over Kodiak Island. A weather front has
moved to the West Coast spreading snow to the Northern Norton
Sound coast with some flurries to the east. A 1003 mb low has
moved to the Pribilofs and will move north to St Lawrence Island
Friday morning at 1007 mb. The low continues north through the day
and will be in the Southern Chukchi Sea early Saturday as it falls
apart and dissipates over the Kobuk Basin. A 1029 mb low will
develop northeast of the Beaufort Sea and move to the Northern
Beaufort Sea by Friday afternoon, and into the southern Beaufort
Sea by Saturday morning at 1022 mb as it sends a weather front to
the Arctic Coast. The front in the Bering Sea will decay as it
moves northeast into the Interior late Friday and Saturday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Wind chill will bitter from
Oliktok Point east along the coast. Dangerous Wind Chill to 80
below is possible tonight in that area. Cold Wind Chill also
continues on the Northwest Coast. Generally clear skies will
continue with some stratus and patchy fog floating around.
Temperatures will remain cold with lows in the 25 to 45 below
range for most areas. Coldest temperatures in the plains with lows
falling to around 55 below again tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow will generally be from Nome
south to the Lower Yukon Delta and on St Lawrence Island tonight
with it spreading inland and north Friday. Snowfall amounts
generally light, but winds will create some travel issues in
the as visibility will be poor at times. Blizzard Warning
continues for St Lawrence Island. Temperatures warming.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing will continue with
temperatures falling rapidly this evening. Locally wind chill to
40 below with the drainage winds in the valleys. Temperatures will
be warming Friday. Another round of snow Saturday as another
front moves into the area. Expect similar snow amounts to the last
couple days. Gusty north winds on the south side of passes in the
Brooks and Alaska Ranges.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Temperatures cooling Sunday
as a strong push of cold air from the the Arctic moves south down
the West Coast while the cold air hangs on in the Interior. While
temperatures will remain fairly steady in the Interior
temperatures on the West Coast and in the Western Interior will
fall into the 20s and 30s below. Temperatures in the Arctic will
be warming, but only into the teens to 20s below for most areas.
The front moving south over the Arctic will being some light snow
to the Arctic Sunday. A front moving northeast into the Interior
will bring snow to the Interior the middle of next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB FEB 21