Brisk Wind Advisory 256, NWS Fairbanks, AK

543 
FZAK51 PAFG 251308
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-260315-
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A low in the Western Bering Sea will move into the southern 
Chukchi Sea as a 1003 mb low by 3pm Sat, and to near Demarcation 
Point as a 986 mb low by 3pm Sun.

$$

PKZ225-260315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-260315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-260315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt becoming E. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-260315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt becoming E. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-260315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
408 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt becoming E. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...W winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
626 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies have allowed temperatures to plummet across portions
of the Western Interior east into the Eastern Interior this
morning, where temperatures have dipped to the 20s and 30s below
zero in the Upper Koyukuk Valley and the Yukon Flats. Expect more
of the same tonight for the Central and Eastern Interior as the
cold air holds strong, while warming begins across the West Coast
and Western Interior as a strong storm moves inland this morning.
This storm will bring a mix bag of precipitation to much of the
Interior, mainly south of the Brooks Range, over the next several
days, from heavy snow, freezing rain, and rain. Elsewhere,
blizzard conditions will persist along the Eastern Beaufort Sea
Coast this morning before coming to an end by this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The current pattern across Northern Alaska consists of a ridge
at 500 hpa over the Bering and West Coast with a closed 497
decameter (dam) low east of the Demarcation Point. As the day
progresses, the closed low will slide east as the ridge builds
into the Central Interior by Saturday morning. A trough north of
the ridge will dig south Saturday across the Bering Sea, weakening
the ridge as the trough pushes into the West Coast Sunday morning
and then into the Western Interior Sunday night. All this being
said, at the surface, the initial push of a mixed bag of wintery
precipitation will begin this morning for the West Coast from the
Yukon Delta north to the Seward Peninsula as a front pushes
inland through tonight and then into the Central Interior
Saturday morning. This front will bring the first round of
significant snowfall to the greater Fairbanks Area into Sunday
morning. This front will be followed by a stronger front as it
develops over the Bering Sea Saturday and then pushes inland to
the Central Interior by Sunday morning, resulting in additional
major weather impacts across much of Northern Alaska going into
early next week.

Model Discussion...
There is some uncertainty in the forecast due to poor run to run
consistency between models, as well as poor intra-model run to
run, on the evolution of features and the placement of
precipitation types over the next several days. With that being
said, the consensus shows that we are headed into a very active
weather pattern today into early next week. For this morning's
forecast package, we are using a general blend of model data from
the 00Z and 06Z runs.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Blizzard conditions will continue across the Eastern Beaufort
Coast this morning before improving this afternoon as winds
subside as low pressure weakens and pushes off to the east.
Otherwise, relatively quite conditions will persist into Saturday
morning. By late Saturday afternoon, a strong weather front will
reach the Western Arctic Coast, brining snow and increasing
easterly winds to the Chukchi Sea Coast. This front will slide
east and be reinforced by a second push of moisture north into
the region as a second front moves into the West Coast Sunday.
Areas south of Utqiagvik, along the Arctic Plain, should expect
to see anywhere from 4 to 7 inches of snow through Sunday, with
higher amounts along the higher terrain of the Brooks Range. With
these systems, along with snow, they will bring warmer
temperatures into the region, with areas along the Arctic Coast
near zero and areas south reaching the teens above for Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Very active weather commences today as a weather front moves
onshore along the West Coast this morning bringing snow, freezing
rain, and rain to the Yukon Delta and Lower Yukon Valley. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for these areas for the freezing
rain and localized snow threats, primarily inland, through
Saturday. Where in the Western Interior, could see 5 to 8 inches,
localized amounts up to 12 inches, of snow accumulation with this
system. This will precede a significant winter storm that will
develop in the Bering Sea Saturday, impacting the West Coast late
Saturday night. With the first system today bringing warmer air
into the region, the second front will bring more widespread
chances of rain with the warmer air in place for the Lower Yukon
Valley and Yukon Delta, with mixed precipitation reaching as far
north as the Seward Peninsula with this storm by Sunday morning.
Areas further north and inland will remain as mostly snow, and
will see significant accumulations ranging from 8 to 14 inches of
snow from the Chukchi Sea Coast east through the Upper Kobuk and
Noatak Valleys through Sunday night. Very warm temperatures for
this time of year will surge north and remain in 20s and 30s, with
the warmest temperatures from the Seward Peninsula south through
the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The calm before the storm, with clear skies over the region
allowing temperatures to dip into the 20s and 30s below this
morning with more of the same tonight across the Central and
Eastern Interior as the cold air holds on strong. Then the action
begins, as a front pushes into the Central Interior Saturday
morning, spreading snow as far east as Fairbanks. This will
persist into Sunday, ahead of another, much stronger system that
will move into the Interior. The first wave will bring copious
amounts of snow on Saturday, with snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches. Then, an additional surge of moisture will move into the
region as another, stronger, front moves inland Sunday morning.
This front will bring the potential for additional impressive snow
amounts in the range substantial amounts of snow with another 8
to 12 inches of snow in the Fairbanks Area Sunday into early next
week along with much warmer temperatures. Westerly winds are
expected to develop Sunday afternoon, resulting in the possibility
of blowing snow issues going into Monday at higher elevations.
Additionally, a slight chance of freezing rain is possible to
develop after the heaviest snow has fallen by late Sunday night,
but confidence in this is low at the moment due to model
inconsistency. Winter Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued
across the region for many locations for heavy snow and freezing
rain expected. With that being said, stay tuned to the latest
forecast for future updates.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A strong storm moving across the Bering may bring minor rises in
water levels and/or push water through cracks in the ice along
the coast for areas south of the Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta
on Sunday.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Monday, active weather will
continue to hammer Northern Alaska as a series of storms will roll
through bringing rounds of heavy precipitation and strong winds.
Stayed tuned...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ221-AKZ225.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240.

&&

RZ DEC 21