Brisk Wind Advisory 246, NWS Fairbanks, AK

298 
FZAK51 PAFG 191320
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-200330-
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 972 mb low currently in the Gulf of Anadyr NW Bering Sea will 
continue to move north into Chukotka today and then into the
Chukchi Sea near Wrangel Island as a 976 mb low tonight. High 
pressure centered just north and west of Banks Island will drift
north into Monday.

$$

PKZ225-200330-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt becoming S. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-200330-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-200330-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-200330-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-200330-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
420 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Snow with freezing rain. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Major storm system will move into the West Coast late
this evening bringing elevated water levels to the coast, with a
mix or rain/snow/freezing rain, near blizzard conditions, strong
gusty winds, and much warmer temperatures. Snow spreading into
the Interior Sunday with heavy snow in the Central Interior and
Alaska Range and just a slight chance of freezing rain along with
some warmer temperatures. Se the latest Warnings, Watches, and
Advisories at www.weather.gov/fairbanks for details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...18/12Z solutions continue to be uncooperative with the
inbound storm that will be impacting the Lower Yukon Delta tonight
and the Interior Sunday night and Monday. Solutions vary
significantly in timing of the system, precipitation/snowfall
amounts, temperatures, etc. The only thing they really agree on
is that it will be moving across the area. Surge of warm air with
the system will bring rain/freezing rain to areas, so
precipitation type will be the biggest challenge. Another
challenge will be snow ratios with the warmer airmass. System does
appear to be coming in a bit faster than previous solutions with
the leading edge getting into the Central Interior Sunday
afternoon. Will be using those faster solutions to bring it in
earlier then increasing pops to categorical across most of the
forecast area. Going with a blend of the NAM and EC for
precipitation amounts as they have been more consistent the last
few days. Snow ration will range from around 8/1 to 15/1 for most
areas. Warm temperatures will keep rain from freezing on power
lines and most objects. Rain will be falling into snow in most
areas, but in areas without snow, rain is expected to freeze as
it contacts the frozen ground.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...The low that was over the Seward Peninsula
yesterday has filled and the trough has moved east to lie over
Arctic Village to Prince William Sound and south to a 541 dam low
in the Eastern Pacific. Ridging that was over the Bering Sea has
moved over the West Coast, then northwest over Chukchi Sea.
Troughing continues to extend west over the Arctic from a 505 dam
low over Banks Island. Sunday morning the trough will exit to the
east while the ridging will continue to rotate over the state
with the axis over Bristol Bay to Point Lay with strong southwest
flow over the Bering Sea. Sunday afternoon the ridge axis will
extend north over Kodiak Island to Minchumina to Umiat then over
Utqiagvik. A 987 mb low will move over Siberia with a trough
extending southeast over the Gulf of Anadyr, then south along 170W
over the Aleutians. Monday morning the ridge axis will be over
Prince William Sound to Delta Junction to Demarcation Point. The
trough pushing into the ridge extend east from 485 dam low over
the Siberian Arctic Coast over the Chukchi Sea to Point Hope, then
over Ambler to Anchorage. Strong southwest flow will extend from
the Northwest Pacific over the Bering Sea into the Interior.
Monday afternoon the ridge axis will be east of the state. The low
over the Siberian Coast will move to 150 nm east of Wrangel
Island with the trough extending east over the offshore waters
then south over the Eastern Brooks Range then southwest over the
Eastern Interior. A 529 dam low that developed over the Western
Bering Sea will move over the Lower Yukon Delta. At 850 hpa...-10C
isotherm has been pushed north to the Brooks Range and the -20C
isotherm is north of the Arctic Coast. Sunday morning the -10C
isotherm will lie from McCarthy to Point Lay, while the 0C
isotherm will move over St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon
Delta. Sunday afternoon the -10C isotherm will lie from Eagle to
Deadhorse, while the 0C isotherm will be over the lower Yukon
Delta, Norton Sound, the Seward Peninsula, and Kotzebue Sound with
temperatures as warm as +3C.

Surface...Broad low pressure across mainland Alaska. High
pressure extends west across the Arctic from a 1028 mb high near
Banks Island, and high pressure over the North Pacific extends
north over Bristol Bay and the southwest mainland. A 1015 mb low
is in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, while a 1015 mb low has
developed in the Arctic Plain and a 1015 mb low associated with
the decaying front moving across the state is near Kotzebue Sound.
A 962 mb low has moved into the Northwest Bering Sea with a
trailing 970 mb low just moving into the Southwest Bering Sea.
A weather front extends east along 60N. Sunday morning high
pressure will remain over the Arctic with a 1032 mb high in the
Beaufort Sea, while high pressure to the south will extend
northeast over Cook Inlet, then east to the Upper Tanana Valley in
the Yukon. The lows over the state will weaken and move east,
while the low in the Northwest Bering Sea will move into Chukotka
west of the Gulf of Anadyr at 975 mb as the front moves to lie
from the Bering Strait to Kodiak City. The trailing low will be in
the Western Bering Sea at 971 mb. Sunday afternoon high pressure
will hold to the southeast over the Copper River Basin, and over
the Northeast Arctic with the 1035 mb high in the Beaufort Sea.
Low in Chukotka will move near Wrangel Island at 975 mb and the
front will lie across Wainwright to Delta Junction. Southwest flow
will extend from the North Pacific into the Central Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, front will move to the
northwest coast Sunday morning spreading snow across the area
through the day. Winds on the northwest coast will swing around
from the south at 15 to 25 mph, except at Cape Lisburne where
winds will be south gusting to 70 mph. Winds will turn from the
east and southeast Sunday at 15 to 30 mph. Winds east of Utqiagvik
will be east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph. Patchy fog.
Temperatures warming with lows overnight zero to 20 below, while
highs Sunday will range from single digits above to near 30 above
on the northwest coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong front will bring snow,
then rain and freezing rain, then more snow over the next couple
days. See Warnings and Advisories for details. Snow will range up
to a foot along the south slopes of the Brooks Range, while a mix
of snow and rain to the south may only leave behind a couple
inches of new snow. Strong winds along the coast with blowing snow
in the Chukchi Sea region, while to the south of the Bering Strait
blowing snow will be limited by the warmer temperatures and rain
on the snowpack. Southeast to southwest winds will be increasing
overnight along the coast to 20 to 40 mph, while inland winds will
increase to 10 to 20 mph mainly from the southeast. Temperatures
will be steady or warming overnight for most areas, while Highs
Sunday range be in the 20s and 30s over most of the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow moving in a bit sooner than
earlier anticipated. Light snow this evening will be tapering off,
with some breaks overnight. Increasing clouds Sunday with snow
moving into the Fairbanks area by late afternoon as it spreads
east. Heavy snow Sunday night and Monday, see Winter Storm
Warnings for details. Winds variable to 10 mph, except increasing
southwest winds on summits to 30 mph and gusty. Areas of blowing
snow. Lows overnight in the single digits above and below. Highs
Sunday will be in the teens and 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated water levels
expected in the Norton Sound Region Sunday night and Monday.
Similar to system that brought elevated water to the area a
couple weeks ago. Will continue to monitor the situation.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Another moisture laden system
will move to the West Coast on Wednesday evening, then into the
Interior with another round of potentially heavy snow that will
last into Saturday before tapering off. We will get a shot of
colder temperatures on Wednesday between systems with temperatures
falling into the 20 below to 35 below range before warming
rapidly back up. Snowfall Thursday through Saturday looks to be a
significant amount, so we will be tracking the systems progress
through the weekend as it may impact travel over the Christmas
holiday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

SDB DEC 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1226 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

AKZ207-209-211>214-191600-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet,
Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
1226 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...Elevated water levels along the West Coast Sunday and Monday...

A strong weather system moving to the West Coast will bring
elevated water levels to the coast south of the Bering Strait Sunday
night and Monday and north of the Bering Strait on Monday.

Water levels are expected to be 3 to 6 feet above the normal high
tide line. Water levels will be similar to the system that brought
elevated water to the area a couple weeks ago. Water is expected
to push into the old runway at Golovin, and bring elevated water
levels to Kotlik. Water levels are expected to be similar to the
system that brought elevated water along the coast north of the
Bering Strait a couple weeks ago including Kotzebue, Kivalina and
Red Dog Dock. Water will also be pushed up on top of the ice
along the coast.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.