Brisk Wind Advisory 245, NWS Fairbanks, AK

403 
FZAK51 PAFG 182250
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-191500-
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure extends W across the Arctic along 76N from a 1028 mb
high 200 nm NW of Banks Island. Low pressure over mainland Alaska
is pushing N over the nearshore waters. A 976 mb low will move
near Wrangel Island Sun with a front extending into the Arctic
Plain. High in the Beaufort Sea will build to 1035 mb as a tight
pressure gradient develops across the Arctic. The high will move N
Mon as the low moves to 200 nm N of Wrangel Island at 980 mb with
a trough extending east over the Arctic Coast. 

$$

PKZ225-191500-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-191500-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-191500-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-191500-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 diminishing to 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-191500-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
150 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
440 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The active pattern will continue over northern Alaska with a
barrage of storms through next week that will bring periods of
snow and blowing snow to the West Coast and Western Interior
especially north of the Seward Peninsula and Western Brooks Range
and a mix of snow, freezing rain and rain to areas south of the
Seward Peninsula and west of Lake Minchumina. The first in a
series of storms will begin impacting the West Coast and St
Lawrence Island late tonight, the Western Interior on Sunday and
the Central Interior late Sunday and into Monday. Elevated water
levels are possible along the coast south of the Bering Strait on
Sunday and Monday, and north of the Bering Strait Monday. See
latest Winter Storm Watches and Advisories for details. The second
storm in a series lines up for the West Coast on Wednesday and
the third a week from this Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 18/00z model suite continues to be plagued with significant
differences on the strength, and track of the storm currently
pushing into the Western Bering Sea with precip type being
particularly elusive as the storm pushes into the West Coast and
in particular the timing on the transition from snow to freezing
rain and rain to the south and west of Lake Minchumina. Snow
amounts north of the Seward Peninsula are more certain as only a
brief transition to freezing rain is expected in these areas. To
the South of the Seward Peninsula snow amounts and freezing rain
amounts will highly variable as cold temperatures are likely to
remain in valley locations longer.

Aloft...
At 500 hpa a broad high pressure system remains parked over the
Northern Pacific which is allowing a very moist southwest to
westerly flow to push northeast over northern alaska ahead of a
front pushing east and north into the Central and Eastern Bering
Sea tomorrow and over the West Coast on Sunday. 850 mb
temperatures will continue to warm with the zero Celsius isotherm
advancing as far north a Kotzebue Sound ahead of the low and then
drop to around 15 below again over Kotzebue Sound as the front
passes to the east.

Surface...
The models continue to struggle on the strength of the low moving
into the Northern Bering Sea differing by over 10 mb as early as
Sunday morning and 10 mb difference along with position
differences of over 300 nm by Monday morning. Residents along the
West Coast should continue to closely monitor the situation as a
slight change in the track of the storm will have large impacts on
water levels along particular coastlines as well as snowfall
totals as the transition from snow to freezing rain and rain will
also change with the track of the storm.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The pressure gradient increases
rapidly on Sunday and combined with falling snow as the front
rotating around the large low over Siberia will produce low
visibility in snow and blowing snow from Point Barrow West. A
considerable amount of warm air is moving in aloft with with this
storm with freezing rain possible near Point Hope Sunday evening.
Winds will also increase through the Brooks Range with blowing
snow expected in the Northeastern Brooks Range and adjacent plains
on Sunday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...The first in a series of storms
will begin to impact St Lawerence Island late Saturday night and
the West Coast on Sunday. Another round of heavy snow starting
late Saturday night may be punctuated by some freezing rain as a
strong push of warm air will push temperatures into the 30s above
Sunday. Heavy snow expect in the Kotzebue Sound Region, and in the
Kobuk and Noatak basins. Heavy snow will move into the Western
Interior Monday morning. See latest Winter Storm Watches for
details. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph. Lows
overnight range from around 5 above on St Lawrence Island to the
single digits above and below in the inland areas. Highs Saturday
range from 20s above on St Lawrence Island and in coastal areas
south of the Bering Strait to the teens inland and north of the
Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior...Another round of snow today with
generally 1 to 2 inches expected and then diminishing this
afternoon. Potential heavy snow Sunday night and Monday, see
Winter Storm Watches for details. The track and strength of the
low continues to be problematic and will greatly influence how
much snow will accompany the storm on Sunday night and Monday.
The potential exists for snowfall in excess of 6 inches over much
of the Central Interior, especially areas where westerly winds
will enhance upslope snow on west facing ridge lines. Lows
tonight mainly in the teens. Highs Sunday will range from the
single digits above north of the Yukon River to the upper 20s
south and west of Fairbanks.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated water levels
expected in the Norton Sound Region Sunday night and Monday and in
Kotzebue Sound Monday. Expect similar water levels with this next
system that were experienced a couple week ago. Will continue to
monitor the situation.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ221.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-
AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240.
&&

CCC DEC 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

AKZ207-209-211>214-190300-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet,
Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
318 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...Elevated water levels along the West Coast Sunday and Monday...

A strong weather system moving to the West Coast will bring
elevated water levels to the coast south of the Bering Strait Sunday
night and Monday and north of the Bering Strait on Monday.

Water levels are expected to be 3 to 6 feet above the normal high
tide line. Water levels will be similar to the system that brought
elevated water to the area a couple weeks ago. Water is expected
to push into the old runway at Golovin, and bring elevated water
levels to Kotlik. Water levels are expected to be similar to the
system that brought elevated water along the coast north of the
Bering Strait a couple weeks ago including Kotzebue, Kivalina and
Red Dog Dock. Water will also be pushed up on top of the ice
along the coast.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.