Brisk Wind Advisory 231, NWS Fairbanks, AK

325 
FZAK52 PAFG 072230
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-081515-
130 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low in the Western Bering Sea will move to the Central Bering 
Sea by 3am Wed as a 981 mb low and to 100 NM west of the Yukon 
Delta as a 984 mb low by 4am Thu.

A 973 mb low 90 NM north of Wainwright will move to around 100 NM
north of Point Barrow Thu morning at 991 mb, then quickly weaken
thereafter. A low in the Western Bering Sea will move to 50 NM
south of Saint Lawrence Island at 981 mb Wed morning then to
eastern Norton Sound at 988 mb Wed evening before moving inland
and weakening. A 965 mb low will move from Bristol Bay to the 
Gulf of AK Wed night through Thu night then stall through Sat.

$$

PKZ200-081515-
Norton Sound-
130 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-081515-
Dall Point to Wales-
130 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 45 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-081515-
Kotzebue Sound-
130 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-081515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
130 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NW winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm continues across parts of the state as the
associated front is moving inland, with heavy snow over parts of
the Interior, as well as the Alaska Range and Brooks Range.
High water over parts of the YK Delta and Norton Sound are
receding, but remain elevated. The associated low will drift into
the Chukchi Sea, and is expected to bring elevated water and
possibly some ice push from Point Lay to Point Barrow. Light snow
will move back into the Eastern Interior tomorrow as the cold
front moves east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 492 dam 500 hpa closed low just a little north of Point
Hope. The surface low is analyzed around 965 mb based on obs
around the Lisburne Peninsula. A strong pressure gradient persists
across the Brooks Range and Alaska Range, with south winds through
the AK Range continuing to blast to near hurricane force through
Isabel Pass. A cold front/deformation zone aloft sits over the
Western Interior, with a secondary basal shortwave supporting a
strong surface low which is moving up towards Cook Inlet. Temps
have moderated greatly over the Interior with the strong south
winds importing much warmer air, as temps in Fairbanks have shot
up into the 20s, a full 60 degrees warmer from a few days ago.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in very good agreement overall, although
they are still wobbling back and forth with the low currently near
Point Hope drifting into the Chukchi Sea. The current track is to
stall the low northwest of Point Barrow, which means there will be
some elevated water levels and high surf potential, especially now
that the shorefast ice has mostly broken free. The NAM hi-res was
favored which captures the strong gap winds as well as the coastal
winds over the Chukchi.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Heavy snow and significant blowing snow continues through Isabel
Pass of the Eastern Alaska Range. Heavy snow also continues over
the Upper Koyukuk Valley and southern Brooks Range, where there
have been reports of very heavy snowfall with the moist south
flow. Downslope flow has kept most of the Interior dry, and also
much warmer, with the current temp at Fairbanks airport of 27 F as
of noon. A vigorous cold front from the West Coast storm moves
east tonight, and will bring accumulating snow to pretty much all
of the Interior, along with a switch from south to north winds
through Isabel/Windy Passes. Expect north winds tomorrow to peak
around 30-45 mph south of Black Rapids, which will likely result
in significant blowing and drifting snow concerns, so travelers
should prepare for this significant hazard. Elsewhere, generally
expecting 1-3" snow through Tuesday with possible snow squalls as
the cold front shifts through, with flurries lingering through
Wed. Expect blowing and drifting snow concerns with northwest
winds from Dot Lake to Tok, tomorrow afternoon and evening. More
light snow will move into the Interior Wed night and Thu.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The worst of the storm is over as winds are diminishing, snow is
tapering off, and water levels over the YK Delta to Norton Sound
are dropping. Water levels are also peaking across the NW Arctic,
with Red Dog Dock at near 4 feet above MHHW according to that tide
gage. Water levels rapidly drop off everywhere tonight as the low
moves into the Chukchi Sea and the low weakens. Snow showers will,
however, move back into the West Coast and Interior as the front
surges inland tonight, with light accumulations possible,
especially from the Seward Peninsula northward where 1-2" is
expected. The next front will bring in snow and blowing snow to
the YK Delta through the Middle Yukon with 2-4" snow Tue night
through Wed night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow and blowing snow will ramp up over the western Arctic as the
surface low associated with the strong West Coast storm tracks
into the Chukchi Sea, bringing blustery southwest winds 25 to 35
mph. This will also bring elevated water levels and high surf,
thus a high surf advisory will be in effect from Point Lay to
Point Barrow, with 1-3 feet above MHHW expected. Elsewhere, the
strong south gradient weakens tonight, with light snow spreading
from across the eastern Arctic Tue into Wed, some some blowing
and drifting snow east of Prudhoe Bay with a brief burst of west
winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Water levels have peaked
and are already dropping pretty much everywhere along the West
Coast and Saint Lawrence. However, as the low drifts north of
Point Hope, southwest winds will push water levels 1-3 feet above
MHHW from Point Lay to Point Barrow. With a lack of ice, this may
create some high surf and possibly some free ice to move onshore.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A strong low moving from Bristol Bay to the Gulf of Alaska on Thu
through Sat will draw down colder air over the Interior but will
also increase snow chances across the Southern and Eastern
Interior. 850 temps will be well below average with values into
the -20 to -30C range, which should allow for another cold period
before the next possible front moves into the SW part of the state
late weekend/early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ214-AKZ227.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

AHSENMACHER DEC 21