High Surf Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

648 
WHAK49 PAFG 071441
CFWAFG

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
541 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

AKZ207-072000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-211207T2000Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
541 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast.

* COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels 4 to 5 feet above normal high 
  tides.

* TIMING...Through 11 AM Tuesday. The highest water levels have
  already occurred. Water will remain elevated this morning, then
  drop this afternoon.  

* IMPACTS...Water will inundate low lying areas and cause minor 
  flooding. Ice could pile up on the beach. Boats or other 
  property in low lying areas could be damaged. Water could flow 
  on top of shorefast ice and over lagoon or river ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

AKZ209-072000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-211207T2000Z/
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Including Kotzebue, Selawik, and Noorvik
541 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast.

* COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels 4 to 5 feet above normal high 
  tides.

* TIMING...Through 11 AM Tuesday. The highest water levels have
  already occurred. Water will remain elevated this morning, then
  drop this afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Water will inundate low lying areas and cause minor 
  flooding. Ice could pile up on the beach. Boats or other 
  property in low lying areas could be damaged. Water could flow 
  on top of shorefast ice and over lagoon or river ice. This is 
  expected to flood low lying areas along the lagoon in Kotzebue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

AKZ210-072000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-211207T2000Z/
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
541 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast.

* COASTAL FLOODING...With sea levels 4 to 5 feet above normal 
  high tides.

* TIMING...Through 11 AM Tuesday. The highest water levels have
  already occurred. Water will remain elevated this morning, then
  drop this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Water will inundate low lying areas and cause minor 
  flooding. Ice could pile up on the beach. Boats or other 
  property in low lying areas could be damaged. Water could flow 
  on top of shorefast ice and over lagoon or river ice. This is 
  expected to flood low lying areas near Deering, and could 
  flood the road to the airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

AKZ201-080145-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-211208T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
541 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast from Point Lay to 
  Wainright.

* TIMING...Now through Wednesday morning. The highest water levels
  are occuring this morning. 

* IMPACTS...Water will cause minor beach erosion. Ice could pile 
  up on the beach. Boats or other property in low lying areas 
  could be damaged.

* WAVE AND SURF...Sea levels will rise 3 feet above the normal 
  high tides. Waves will wash up to the top of the beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

AKZ202-080145-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-211208T1500Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
541 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast from Point Barrow 
  westward.

* TIMING...Now through Wednesday morning. The highest water 
  levels are occuring this morning. 

* IMPACTS...Water will cause minor beach erosion. Ice could pile 
  up on the beach. Boats or other property in low lying areas 
  could be damaged.

* WAVE AND SURF...Sea levels will rise 3 feet above the normal 
  high tides. Waves will wash up to the top of the beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

339 
WHAK49 PAFG 071807
CFWAFG

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
907 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

AKZ207-209-210-071915-
/O.CAN.PAFG.CF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-211207T2000Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue, 
Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, 
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, and Taylor
907 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ201-080600-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-211208T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
907 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast from Point Lay to 
  Wainright.

* TIMING...Now through Wednesday morning. The highest water 
  levels are occuring this morning.

* IMPACTS...Water will cause minor beach erosion. Ice could pile 
  up on the beach. Boats or other property in low lying areas 
  could be damaged.

* WAVE AND SURF...Sea levels will rise 3 feet above the normal 
  high tides. Waves will wash up to the top of the beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

AKZ202-080600-
/O.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-211208T1500Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
907 AM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...Low lying areas along the coast from Point Barrow 
  westward.

* TIMING...Now through Wednesday morning. The highest water 
  levels are occuring this morning.

* IMPACTS...Water will cause minor beach erosion. Ice could pile 
  up on the beach. Boats or other property in low lying areas 
  could be damaged.

* WAVE AND SURF...Sea levels will rise 3 feet above the normal 
  high tides. Waves will wash up to the top of the beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.

&&

$$

374 
WHAK49 PAFG 072231
CFWAFG

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

AKZ201-202-072345-
/O.CAN.PAFG.SU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-211208T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne, 
Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
131 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong low in the southern Chukchi Sea combined with a
strong high over the Yukon of Canada is causing strong south winds
across much of Western Alaska, and strong east winds across much
of Eastern Alaska. Blizzard conditions continue over NW Alaska
this morning, with heavy snow lingering in the Western and Central
Interior and Brooks Range through tonight.

Strong south winds over the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will taper
off tonight. These strong winds have brought chinook conditions
and dramatic warm up to the Interior and North Slope.

The front associated with the strong low is stalling from the
central Brooks Range to the McGrath area today through tonight
causing heavy snow to linger into early Tue in those areas. When
this front moves east on Tue is will spread snow east across the
Eastern Interior Tue with several inches there.

An Arctic cold front over the Bering will move along the West
Coast today, into the Western Interior tonight, and then spread to
the ALCAN Border on Tue. This will bring west winds and blowing
snow to the Tok Area on Tue and Tue night.

A low developing in the western Bering Sea tonight will move to
the Central Bering Sea as a as 982 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to
Western Norton Sound as a 985 mb low by 3pm Wed. This will bring
more snow and blowing snow to the West Coast and Western INterior
Tue night and Wed.

Aloft...
The long wave patter consists of a very deep long wave trough
over eastern Russia and the Bering Sea and a long wave ridge over
the Eastern Pacific and Ern Alaska and Western Canada. This
pattern will become progressive as a series of strong short wave
troughs make their way east over the Bering Sea and Alaska.

Surface...
A 958 MB low 80 NM west of Kivalina will move to Point Hope as a
964 mb low bu 3pm Mon, to 30 NM northwest of Wainwright as a 979
mb low by 3pm Tue, and to 100 NM north of Utqiagvik as a 985 mb
low by 3pm Wed. An occluded front from this low to POint Lay to
Bethel will move to Deadhorse to Mcgrath by 3pm Mon, remain
stationary into 3am Tue, then move east of the ALCAN Border on Tue
PM.

A 1033 mb high over the Yukon of Canada will weaken tonight.

An Arctic cold front over the Bering will move along the West
Coast today, into the Western Interior tonight, and then spread to
the ALCAN Border on Tue.

A low developing in the western Bering Sea tonight will move to
the Central Bering Sea as a as 982 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to
Western Norton Sound as a 985 mb low by 3pm Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar solutions
aloft through 3pm Mon. After that time the NAM maintains the low
aloft over NW AK deeper than the GFS/ECMF and Canadian models. We
normally would go with the consensus of models on this, but since
the surface low is deeper than any models indicate at 06Z, expect
the low aloft is also deeper than models indicate, so will go more
with the NAM keeping this low deeper. Also, the NAM and ECMF
bring a deeper short wave into Norton Sound Tue night and Wed than
the GFS and Canadian. Expect the short wave approaching Norton
Sound to be deeper per the NAM and ECMF for Tue night and Wed due
to the strong dynamics involved and the surface low interactions
with the ice edge which will keep that deeper. Will use a blend of
the NAM and ECMF to account for the stronger short wave in Norton
Sound.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage and amounts
through 3pm Tue, but after that time the NAM and ECMF bring precip
into West Coast and Western Interior faster and further north than
the NAM solution for Tue night and Wed. At this time, it appear
as though the NAM and ECMF are better solutions for Tue night and
Wed.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verify 7-8 mb too weak on the
low near the Bering Strait, and about 6-8 mb too weak in the low
south of Dutch Harbor. The NAM moves the Bering Strait low more
slowly than the others models, and keeps it deeper than the GFS.
The NAM also keeps the low south of Dutch Harbor deeper as it
moves NE today and Tue. The NAM and ECMF are generally similar
with the low moving into Norton Sound on Wed. Generally prefer the
NAM pattern as the surface, but will bump up winds 3-5kt across NW
AK today through Tue to account for that low being deeper than
models indicate.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the NAM and
ECMF for precip, temps, clouds, but will use the NAM for surface
features and winds, but bump winds up 3-5kt over NW AK today
through Tue.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A storm surge of 4-7 feet is either occuring or will occur today
along the West Coast along with minor to moderate coast flooding.
Water flowed over the bank of the Yukon River at Kotlik about
midnight last night, and roads in Kotlik were flooded.

Ice could push onto beaches, and water could flow up rivers
causing minor flooding well inland. Flooding will taper off By
Tue. This could also cause sea level rises of 2-4 feet along the
Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik west late tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB DEC 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1006 AM AKST MON DEC 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 AM     HEAVY SNOW       43 NE EVANSVILLE        67.25N 150.18W
12/06/2021  M14.0 INCH       YUKON-KOYUKUK      AK   MESONET

            14 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
            TODAY. FROM THE COLDFOOT SNOTEL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1011 AM AKST MON DEC 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       52 NE EVANSVILLE        67.41N 150.11W
12/06/2021  M27.0 INCH       YUKON-KOYUKUK      AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE WISEMAN COOP OBSERVER REPORTS 27 INCHES
            OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 PM SUNDAY AND 7 AM TODAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1140 AM AKST MON DEC 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW GOLOVIN           64.54N 163.03W
12/05/2021                   NOME               AK   PUBLIC

            STRONG WINDS CAUSED ONE SIDE OF A STORAGE
            BUILDING TO BE PEALED BACK. PICTURES VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&