Brisk Wind Advisory 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

019 
FZAK52 PAFG 182323
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
223 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-191530-
223 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure will persist near Kotzebue Sound keeping
northerly flow along the West Coast through tonight with the low 
moving offshore of the Northwest Arctic Coast at 1009 mb on Tue.

$$

PKZ200-191530-
Norton Sound-
223 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Snow.
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-191530-
Dall Point to Wales-
223 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-191530-
Kotzebue Sound-
223 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-191530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
223 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

089 
FZAK52 PAFG 191241
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-200315-
341 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure will persist near Kotzebue Sound keeping
northerly flow along the West Coast through tonight. Strong low
pressure will move into the Bering northwest of St. Paul Island as
a 970 mb low by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ200-200315-
Norton Sound-
341 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-200315-
Dall Point to Wales-
341 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-200315-
Kotzebue Sound-
341 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-200315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
341 AM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow aloft still dominates the entire Mainland as lows
in the Gulf of Alaska remain the dominant features. The weak
remnants of yet another low are moving into SW AK now which is
bringing light snow to the West Coast with southerly gap winds
through the AK Range. Temps remain above average pretty much
everywhere except the North Slope where colder arctic flow and
blustery easterly winds remain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 509 dam 500 hpa trough over Eastern Siberia is anchoring the
weather over the Mainland as weak waves of energy move north from
the Gulf of Alaska and Bristol Bay. One of those shortwave trough
disturbances is now crossing the AK Range and YK Delta and moving
north, bringing snow to parts of the Lower Yukon, YK Delta,
Norton Sound, and Western Interior. With the surface low in
bristol Bay, at approximately 994 mb, the flow remains northerly
over the Bering Strait with easterly over the North Slope. South
flow chinook warming is creating lenticulars over the AK Range and
continued southerly gap winds.

Model Discussion...
The models are pretty settled into the pattern for the next few
days as the Arctic trough out west moves inland and a strong
hurricane force low moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This strong low
will support a band of snow and blustery northeast winds over
parts of the Interior Monday. The NAM is the "wettest" with this
front while the GFS is almost completely dry. For now a middle
ground was favored which was the ECMWF. As colder air moves east,
light snow moves through the Interior on Monday night and Tuesday,
and a blend was favored then to average out timing differences.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A nice day today as southerly minor chinook warming is occurring
as a weak disturbance tracks over the AK Range. Light snow is
falling over Tanana and Upper Koyukuk with the leading warm front
aloft, but this will end this evening. Southerly gap winds will
continue to increase tonight as the upper height gradient tightens
ahead of a hurricane force low moving into the Gulf of Alaska. We
expect winds to peak into the 60 MPH range thru Isabel and Windy
Passes, through tomorrow morning before waning.

Attention turns to a strong front which will move inland north of
the AK Range on tomorrow afternoon, bringing a band of snow
possibly mixed with rain. Most of this will be all snow, but areas
which see wind may very well warm into the low 30s especially
from the Tanana Valley southward where the strongest chinook
warming will occur. Farther north of the Tanana Valley, increasing
northeast winds with the combination of falling snow will likely
result in localized areas of blowing and drifting snow along
highway summits.

The front will continue north into the Yukon Flats with the
norhteast gradient flipping around to a southwest flow which may
result in another chance for lower elevation areas to warm above
freezing for a brief period Monday night and early Tuesday. Cold
air advection will be strong, however, and the current expectation
is temps will quickly fall Tuesday and snow will overspread the
Interior. Southwest cold air advection will result in another
round of possible blowing snow over summit highways Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow will push across the West Coast tonight from the YK
Delta north with light accumulations. Strong north winds over the
immediate Bering Coast will result in more blowing and drifting
snow, especially for Wales, Brevig Mission, and Point Hope.
Another band of snow moves into the Coast tonight and tomorrow
and will continue at times through Tuesday as it oscillates
across the West Coast and Interior. In total, expect widespread
1-3" snow amounts, locally higher over elevated terrain and across
the Lower Yukon Valley where the inverted trough axis is located.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
East to northeast winds will continue across the Arctic coast
through Monday night or so with a gradual downward trend
thereafter. Expect local blowing and drifting, especially over the
Western Arctic where light snow will accompany the winds, mainly
west of Barrow as a front remains stalled over that region,
including the Western Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Wednesday night, the
picture has become much clearer as a series of fronts/lows from
the Bering Sea move inland. The first will be a strong Bering Sea
warm front which will move inland across the West Coast Wednesday
night, bringing blowing snow and heavy snow to parts of that
region. The ECMWF/Canadian/GFS are all on board with this now.
Thereafter, they all depict a series of smaller scale but strong
lows moving up the West Coast in successions which will be
accompanied by a subtropical tap of warm air, thus each storm will
be warmer with threats for mixed precip, and possibly even some
rain mixed in for coastal areas. The storms will gradually shift
the ridge east late week with some of these fronts bringing
increased chances for precip/snow for the Interior. All in all, this
will be a large shift in the pattern with the greatest impacts for
the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 21