Brisk Wind Advisory 204, NWS Fairbanks, AK

617 
FZAK51 PAFG 301201
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-310230-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 mb low SE of Wrangel Island will remain generally in the
same area before another low tracking from the Bering Sea merges
with this area of low pressure along the northwest Arctic Coast by
Saturday morning as a 994 mb low. This area of low pressure will
move northeast east and extend into the western Beaufort sea by
Saturday night.

$$

PKZ225-310230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-310230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-310230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ240-310230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ245-310230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The showers continue mainly west of Manley Hot
Springs and north of Livengood. Heaviest rainfall tonight will
extend from the Koyukuk Basin through the Middle Yukon Valley to
the Lower Yukon Delta. Flood Advisory for the Snake and Nome
rivers continues. Warmer and drier in the Southeast Interior this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...29/12Z solutions are in reasonably good agreement
through the midrange before diverging. Surface initialized well
against local 29/15Z analysis. Going to lean quite a bit on the
current forecast database and make only minor changes since the
solutions are very similar to the last couple runs for this time
period.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing extends from a 537 dam low over
the Northeast Beaufort Sea to 75N and the Dateline to a 539 dam
low 200 nm south of Wrangel Island. A shortwave extends south from
the low over Chukotka to a 572 dam low over Adak. Ridging extends
north out of the Pacific to Sand Point, then northeast to a 577
dam high over the Kenai Peninsula to a 577 dam high over the
Copper River basin, the northeast over the AlCan to Demarcation
Point, then northwest into the Central Arctic. By Friday morning
the troughing in the Arctic will be pushed near 80N over the
Northern Beaufort Sea extending southwest to a 542 dam low 400 nm
north of Wainwright to a 542 dam low 200 nm east of Wrangel island
to a 540 dam low over the Chukotsk Peninsula. The trough will
rotate around the low to lie over the Bering Strait to Homer. The
Skinny ridge to the south will be holding on with a 574 dam high
just southeast of Homer with ridging extending northeast over the
Upper Tanana Valley, the north over the Yukon Territory and
Beaufort Sea. By Friday night the ridging will be pushing back to
the west over the Upper Tanana Valley and into the Middle Tanana
Valley as southwest flow continues over the West Coast and Arctic.
At 850 hpa...A dome of +10C or warmer will persist over the far
Southeast Interior while the 0C isotherm will move over the
Northwest Arctic Coast with the remainder of the forecast area
somewhere in between.

Surface...Surface is pretty much a reflection of aloft with high
pressure pushing north into the Central and Eastern Interior and
low pressure to the West and North. A 996 mb low is near Wrangel
Island with a 1000 mb low just north of the Gulf of Anadyr. A
front extends east across the Arctic offshore waters to a low in
Western MacKenzie Bay with another front over the West Coast
Friday morning the high pressure will be pushed south of the
Alaska Range as the front to the west pushes northeast across the
state and the front in the Arctic will slide north as the lows to
the west remain stationary. A 1015 mb low will develop in the
Upper Tanana Valley tonight and merge with low pressure to the
south Friday. By Friday afternoon the the front in the Arctic will
be stationary with a 1008 mb low developing 150 nm north of
Prudhoe Bay, the low near Wrangel Island will be stationary as
while the low near the Gulf of Anadyr will merge with a a 936 mb
low that will move to the Central Bering Sea. High pressure south
of the Alaska Range will start to push back north into the Central
and Eastern Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, showers, areas of fog
will persist along the coast as southwest flow prevails over the
most of the area as weather front moves offshore. Inland downslope
off the Brooks Range will keep most areas dry, but cloudy. Highs
in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with lows in the 40s for most locations
along the coast. Warmer inland with highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Winds southwest 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy with showers. Expect a
break along the coast overnight, then more showers Friday and
Saturday. Up to 2 more inches of rain expected through Saturday so
the Flood advisory for the Snake and Nome Rivers is in effect
through Sunday afternoon. The Wulik river is running high, but
expect it to remain steady or slowly fall. Highs along the coast
mid 40s to mid 50s, while inland high temperatures will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will be in the 40s to mid 50s. Winds
south to southwest at 5 to 20 mph becoming southeast Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some breaks during the
day. Showers to the northwest of Fairbanks in the Koyukuk Basin
then east along the Brooks Range. Winds south to west to 10 mph.
Winds increasing Friday in the Upper Yukon Flats to southwest at 5
to 15 mph. High in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A return to summer like
weather and temperatures for the Central and Eastern Interior,
while the West Coast and Arctic will stay in a south to southwest
flow with cloudy conditions and showers.

&&

.Fire Weather...Interior locations southeast of a line from Fort
Yukon to Fairbanks to Denali will be drying out, while areas to
the west and north will remain cloudy, cool, and wet as another
weather system pushes rain into the area through Saturday morning.
Temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s this afternoon with lows
tonight falling to the mid 40s to mid 50s. Minimum Relative
Humidity will be lowest in the Upper Yukon Flats as they fall into
the mid 30s and will range up to the mid 50s in the Middle Yukon
Valley. Winds southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph gusting around 15
mph for most locations. Relative Humidity recovery will be good.

&&

.Hydrology...Flood Advisory for Nome and Snake Rivers extended
into Sunday as another 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected Friday
and Saturday. Wulik river has risen near minor flood stage. Do not
expect any flooding, but it will continue to run bankfull through
the weekend as runoff continue to make its way into the mainstem
rivers. Most rivers along the West Coast will remain high through
the weekend with the additional rainfall in the area. Water levels
in small stream and creeks across the Interior will see some
minor rises overnight, then slowly fall through the weekend. For
the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Advisory for portions of AKZ210-AKZ211.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

&&

SDB JUL 21