Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

286 
FZAK52 PAFG 292229
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301415-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 998 mb low in the western Chukchi Sea will remain in place and 
gradually weaken over the next few days. A 993 mb low will move
across the Bering Sea on Friday, sending a front with increased
south to southwest flow into the West Coast over the weekend.

$$

PKZ200-301415-
Norton Sound-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301415-
Dall Point to Wales-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301415-
Kotzebue Sound-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-301415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
229 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is falling across the vast majority of the forecast area as a
potent weather system churns off the West Coast. Rain will
continue to be heavy at times across the West Coast, resulting in
the further increases in river levels across the area. Strong
winds along the coast are supporting high surf from the Bering
Strait south. Western ALaska will remain in a cool, wet pattern
going into the weekend, but warming and drying is expected across
the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
A 539 dm low centered over the Chukotsk Peninsula will continue to
be the main pattern driver over the coming days. As the low
progresses southward into the Bering Sea, longwave troughing over
the Bering Sea and West Coast of Alaska will amplify. This in turn
will amplify ridging over Southcentral Alaska and the Eastern
Interior, leading to warming and drying Thursday into the weekend.
A 560 dm cutoff low in the Gulf of Alaska will remain in place
through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather front sweeping northeast across the region will support
widespread showers and overcast. Winds will shift from easterly to
southerly as the front passes, allowing conditions to gradually
dry out tonight into Thursday. Patchy fog and showers will still
persist near the coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rainy and windy conditions will persist through tonight across
the coast. The heaviest rain will move into the Western Interior
Thursday with showers lingering along the coast. Continued heavy
precipitation is still expected for the Seward Peninsula and
Western Brooks Range tonight, with up to an additional inch of
rain through Thursday. High surf continues to be an issue along
the coast south of the Bering Strait. Water levels will peak
overnight and diminish Thursday. Elevated rivers and streams
could also complicate impacts along the immediate coast. A Flood
Advisory has been issued for this reason for the Nome and Snake
Rivers.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain will taper off from west to east tonight. flow will
gradually turn more southerly Thursday allowing skies to begin
clearing and temperatures to warm. The warming and drying trend
will persist into the weekend supported by ridging aloft, but will
be limited to areas from Fairbanks east. Southwest flow will
support relatively high dewpoints, so the Upper Tanana Valley will
remain the driest location.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Prolonged strong south to southwest winds across the eastern
Bering Sea are causing increased wave action along the coast from
the Bering Strait south, with 4 to 6 feet of surge above the high
water line expected tonight into Thursday. Thus, a High Surf
Advisory is out from Wales to Unalakleet with wave run-up pushing
water much higher than normal along the beach. Minor beach erosion
is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet conditions expected through tonight across the West Coast and
Western Interior. The Central and Eastern Interior will see rain
totals up to a quarter inch as well, while the Upper Tanana Valley
remains mostly rain free. The West Coast will remain wet going
into the weekend, with drier and warmer conditons for the Eastern
Interior. Despite the warming trend, daytime minimum RH's expected
to remain above 30 percent going into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Continued wet conditions will result in additional 0.25 to 1.00
inch of rain along the West Coast and into the Western Interior
through Thursday, with the heaviest amounts over high terrain.

Rivers and streams draining the southern Seward Peninsula and
western Brooks Range will see continued rises in water levels
during the week. Soils will be saturated with the potential for
heavy rain to trigger rapid rises on smaller creeks in the area.
The Nome and Snake Rivers near Nome are rising quickly and a Flood
Advisory has been issued accordingly.

People living or recreating in these areas should monitor local
conditions and be prepared for continued rises on local streams
and rivers including the Snake, Niukluk, Buckland, Kobuk, Noatak
and Wulik Rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for AKZ210-211.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

COWMAN JUL 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

AKZ207>213-215>217-300200-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Lower Yukon Valley-
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Noatak,
Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Kotzebue, Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland,
Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs,
Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin,
Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik,
Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede,
Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, Flat,
Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler, Shungnak,
and Kobuk
332 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...Another Heavy Rain Event Beginning Friday...

Rain is expected to diminish across the West Coast today, but
will remain wet for the Western Interior going into Friday.
However, another heavy rain event is expected to develop across
the West Coast Friday evening and into the Western Interior Friday
night. Rain totals for this event are expected to range from one
half inch to one inch across most of the region, with localized
amounts exceeding 1.50 inches in the foothills of the Brooks Range
through Saturday morning.

Due to the recent rain accumulations across the region, water
levels in rivers and streams will remain elevated, with
significant rises expected throughout the weekend.

People living or recreating in these areas should monitor local
conditions and be prepared for rises on local streams and rivers
including the Snake, Nome, Niukluk, Buckland, Kobuk, Noatak and
Wulik Rivers.

For the latest updates, please visit www.weather.gov/afg.