Brisk Wind Advisory 136, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Sat Apr 3 2021

SYNOPSIS...Heavy snow will continue over the forecast area from
Fairbanks west tonight, tapering off Sunday to snow showers with
gusty winds developing behind the front Sunday afternoon. Gusty
winds to 35 mph in the Interior will produce some blowing snow,
but more importantly will blow the snow off trees on to power
lines, and may blow trees onto the power lines with the potential
for power outages late Sunday. Blowing snow developing along the
Arctic Coast as well with visibility reduced tonight through
Sunday morning before conditions improve. Snow will become more
showery by Sunday morning along the West Coast as the colder air
surges in behind the front, before that there is still a chance of
rain mixing in with snow from Norton Sound south.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...03/12Z solutions are in good agreement aloft and in line
with what they were showing a few days ago. The only change that
sticks out is that winds will be a bit stronger and gustier across
the West Coast Sunday, and the Interior Sunday night as cold air
pushes back into the area behind the front. Precipitation
solutions are quite similar, so will be going with a general
blend and that should give us good forecast continuity. For the
winds will be leaning toward the stronger guidance with the cold
air surging in behind the front.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging associated with a 584 dam high in
the Central Pacific extends northeast over the over the state, and
is flattening out with zonal flow aloft developing as a 504 dam
low is moving over the Bering Strait this afternoon. Broad
troughing has developed over the Arctic with a 492 dam low 700 nm
north of Wrangel Island, and a 508 dam low near the southwest
coast of Banks Island. The low over the Bering Strait will
continue to move east and will be over Coldfoot Sunday morning at
505 dam as it continues to squash the ridging and push it east. A
strong atmospheric river of moisture continues to feed into the
Interior tonight, then gets cutoff Sunday morning as the trough
moves east and the Alaska Range gets in the way. The shortwave
associated with the low will move from the Eastern Bering Sea to
lie from the low over Mcgrath to Sand Point. The low that is high
in the Arctic will move southwest a 100 nm, while the low near
Banks Island will move northwest 100 nm. A weak 508 dam high will
develop over the offshore waters north of the Arctic Coast. The
low over Coldfoot will continue northeast Sunday with the trough
moving across the state and exiting the area by Monday morning
with zonal flow persisting over the state. The zonal flow will
turn from the northwest Tuesday when a trough associated with the
high Arctic low that will move over the Dateline at 490 dam 300 nm
north of Wrangel Island digs south over the West Coast in the
morning. The trough will continue to dig south as it moves over
the Eastern Interior by Tuesday evening with a 511 dam low over
Arctic Village. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm will continue to
slide north this evening to lie from Chalkyitsik to Kotzebue to
Nome to Nunivak Island. It will start moving back south east by
Sunday morning as the low pulls cold air around it, and it will
lie from Old Crow YT to Delta Junction to King Salmon by Sunday
afternoon. The -20C isotherm will be pulled over the Northwest
Interior and Arctic Sunday and will lie from Deadhorse to Nome by
Sunday evening. The -20C will continue to be pulled around the low
and by Monday afternoon it will lie from Eagle to Dot Lake to
McGrath to the Bering Strait where it will persist as the colder
air settles in.

Surface...A 998 mb low has moved into Norton Sound with a 999 mb
low near Cape Romanzof, and a 999 mb low southwest of St Lawrence
Island. Troughing extends east across the state to a 1008 mb low
near Eagle. There is a 1008 mb low in the high Arctic that is
moving south this afternoon. High pressure persists over Siberia
with a 1024 mb center, and in the Northeast Pacific with a 1038 mb
high 600 nm south of Sand Point. By Sunday morning the lows will
merge with a 987 mb low moving to Selawik, then to Old Crow by
Sunday evening. The associated front will lie from the low over
Galena to McGrath then southwest Sunday morning, and will move
east of Fairbanks in the late afternoon. As the low moves to
Selawik the pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast and Chukchi
Sea will tighten with strong gusty winds developing. The gradient
across the Alaska Range will also increase with gusty south winds
developing. Precipitation shadow north of the Eastern Alaska Range
will limit precipitation over the Tanana Flats and from Birch
Lake to Chicken and south. As the front moves across the state
precipitation will become showery behind it and cold air will
start to surge into the area. The cold air and tight gradient
around the low will produce some strong gusty winds to 30 to 35
mph between the ranges through Sunday night. High pressure moving
over most of the forecast area from the Arctic Plains south Monday
morning. A fast moving low will move to the Lower Yukon Delta
Monday evening and continue to the southeast.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...East winds, northeast winds west
of Utqiagvik, increasing as the surface low moves to the Brooks
Range Sunday to 15 to 25 mph with blowing and drifting snow
reducing visibility along the coast and north of Umiat. Winds will
diminish Sunday evening as the low moves east. The low will also
bring some snow, up to 4 inches, to the area from Nuiqsut East
with the heaviest amounts in the Eastern Brooks Range. Winds
diminishing late Sunday with improving conditions. Temperatures
will be falling with lows in the teens and 20s below, and high in
the single digits below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow will continue into Sunday
before tapering to snow showers. Rain may mix with the snow in the
Lower Yukon Delta through this evening, but then cooler air starts
to wrap around the low into the area. Snow will become more
showery in nature Sunday behind the front. As the cold air wraps
into the area winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusty for
most areas by mid afternoon, with scattered snow showers
continuing into the afternoon before tapering off. The winds will
produce some blowing snow issues, so Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued for some areas. Temperatures cooling.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow will continue through the
night in the Central Interior with additional snowfall of 5 to 7
inches. The Eastern Interior will see some snow, but generally
less and 2 inches in the Upper Tanana Valley and the Upper Yukon
Valley. Heaviest snow continues to be west and north of Fairbanks.
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. Snow will
taper off to snow showers by Sunday afternoon in most areas with
gusty winds developing as cold air pushes into the area. Generally
light and variable winds tonight will turn from the southwest to
west Sunday afternoon at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph. The gusty
winds will impact all of the Central Interior, including
Fairbanks so there is potential for snow and snow laden trees to
be blown around and on to power lines with potential for power
outages. Temperatures will be cooling through Tuesday and remain
on the cool side through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A quiet and cooler week ahead
with some light snow possible later in the week as a weather front
associated with a low in the Arctic moves across the state and a
low in the Gulf of Alaska swings a weather front into the
Southeast Interior. Winds will generally be light from the west
and northwest. Friday night a weather front will move to the
Western Capes then move south. A weather front will move south to
the Eastern Arctic Coast Saturday morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-
AKZ210-AKZ213-AKZ219-AKZ223-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB APR 21