Brisk Wind Advisory 126, NWS Fairbanks, AK

452 
FZAK52 PAFG 281235
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
435 AM AKDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-290200-
435 AM AKDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 972 mb low in the Western Bering Sea will move to the Dateline 
this morning. A front associated with the low is near St Lawrence
Island and will move to the Seward Peninsula and Lower Yukon 
Delta by this afternoon. The low will move near St Matthew Island 
at 982 mb this morning, the Seward Peninsula by Mon afternoon as 
it weakens to 992 mb, then slowly move into the Upper Kobuk by Tue
afternoon at 1000 mb. High pressure will move over the Western 
Bering Sea Mon night and the Eastern Bering Sea and the Chukotsk 
Peninsula by Tue evening.

$$

PKZ200-290200-
Norton Sound-
435 AM AKDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-290200-
Dall Point to Wales-
435 AM AKDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 40 kt becoming S. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-290200-
Kotzebue Sound-
435 AM AKDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-290200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
435 AM AKDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 
NM or less.
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Mar 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 PM AKDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern for northern Alaska will continue
through midweek as a series of shortwaves rotate through the upper
flow. A strong storm is expected to move onto the West Coast and
western Interior late tonight through Monday, bringing heavy snow,
gusty winds, blowing snow, and localized blizzard conditions. Snow
will spread eastward across the Interior Monday and Tuesday, with
heavy snow expected for areas north and west of Fairbanks. Winter
Storm Warnings have been issued for much of the West Coast and
western Interior, the Upper Koyukuk Valley, and the central
Interior, along with blizzard warnings for St Lawrence Island and
the Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley. Winter Storm Watches
have been issued for the Middle Tanana Valley to the Southeastern
Brooks Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 27/12Z model solutions initialized well against the 12Z
surface obs and remain in good agreement with major features and
the overall pattern through early next week. Models continue to be
in good agreement on the track and the strength of a strong low
moving east across the Bering Sea, sending a strong front with
heavy snow and gusty winds on the the West Coast Sunday and then
the western Interior by Sunday night. There remains differences in
QPF amounts between models, so we opted to go with a general model
blend and continued the trend from the prior shift of leaning
toward lower snow ratio values due to models under doing the
warmer airmass.

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A broad long-wave trough over the eastern half of the state
stretches into the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon, sliding eastward
across the southeast tonight. A 483 dam low sits north of Banks
Island with a trough extending southwest across the North Slope.
The trough will move southeast, pushing across the Brooks Range
this evening and across the AlCan border by Sunday morning.
Ridging across the eastern Bering Sea and the West Coast this
afternoon will shift eastward Sunday to encompass much of mainland
Alaska. The ridging is short lived though as a closed 510 dam
upper low moves east northeast into the central Bering Sea by
Sunday afternoon, to St Lawrence Island by Monday morning, and
over the Seward Peninsula by Monday afternoon. As the low moves
east northeast, a series of shortwaves will rotate around it. The
first shortwave will move over the Yukon Delta Sunday morning,
with second close behind it on Monday morning. By Tuesday morning
yet another trough will move across the West Coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Stratus lingers across much of the area this afternoon with a
flurries and flurries about. Snow chances increase tonight and
into Sunday morning for areas south and east of Fairbanks as a
shortwave trough moves across the region. Total snowfall in these
areas will generally be 1 to 2 inches through Sunday morning.
North to northwest winds have developed in the Upper Tanana
Valley, the Alaska Range passes, as well as on summits along the
Dalton Highway, but are expected to diminish after midnight.
Behind the shortwave, skies will clear briefly. Temperatures will
be a few degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today, but rebound
Monday and Tuesday with highs warming into the 15 to 35 above
range as the next storm system moves in from the west. This system
will bring another round of snowfall to the central and eastern
Interior Monday and Tuesday, with heavy snow likely in the areas
north and west of Fairbanks. Snowfall accumulations will range
from 8 inches north of Fairbanks to 15 inches towards Indian
Mountain, with locally higher amounts. Areas from Fairbanks south
and east will see much less snow, in the 2 to 4 inch range, with
the exception of the Alaska Range. Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued for heavy snow for the Upper Koyukuk Valley and the
Central Interior and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the
Southeastern Brooks Range, the Yukon Flats and Surrounding
Uplands, and the middle Tanana Valley. There remains differences
in models in regards to snow amounts and placement, but confidence
in a heavy snow event is increasing.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong storm moving east northeast across the Bering Sea will
push a strong front across St Lawrence Island late tonight and
onto the West Coast and Western Interior Sunday into Monday.
Heavy snow is expected as the front moves inland with snowfall
amounts from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon ranging from 8
to 15 inches from the eastern Yukon Delta north to the southern
Selawik Peninsula. In the Western Interior, snow amounts will
range from 11 inches near Ambler to 16 inches near McGrath to 18
inches near Grayling. Locally higher amounts are possible,
especially in the favored upslope areas. As the Bering Sea low
approaches the area, winds on St Lawrence Island, the Bering
Strait coast, Norton Sound, and the lower Yukon Delta coast will
increase from the south to 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
possible. By Sunday afternoon southeast winds will increase to 25
to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph across Norton Sound. Blizzard to
near blizzard conditions are expected in these areas. Further
inland winds will increase but generally will be less than 20 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Patchy stratus persists along the coast this afternoon. Fairly
quiet conditions are expected. East winds will increase to 15 to
20 mph Sunday morning along the coast and into the 15 to 25 mph
range on Monday as low pressure builds in north of the Brooks
Range. Gusty southerly winds develop in the Brooks Range Sunday
night and Monday and may cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Snow spreads north of the Brooks Range Monday night and Tuesday,
with snow accumulations generally less than 2 inches. Temperatures
warm through Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential...A strong storm moving through the
Bering Sea late tonight into Monday will break up ice along the
edge of the icepack and may push water up through the open leads
in the ice in the Bering Strait and Norton Sound. The storm may
push ice onshore the Lower Yukon Delta coast. Flooding is not
expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ222.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

MAR 21