Brisk Wind Advisory 103, NWS Fairbanks, AK

989 
FZAK51 PAFG 112246
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-121500-
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure over the Arctic Plain is pushing N over the
offshore waters. The high pressure will slide E Fri as low 
pressure associated with a 970 mb low near Kamchatka moves into 
the Western Arctic. A strong weather front will move into the
Chukchi Sea Sat evening with strong winds developing in the
SW Arctic.

$$

PKZ225-121500-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...S winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...S winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-121500-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-121500-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-121500-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-121500-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
146 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 30 kt becoming W 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

SDB Mar 21

326 
FZAK51 PAFG 121338
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130315-
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
An area of high pressure will move east today across the Arctic 
Coast as a trough of low pressure moves into the Western Arctic. 
A strong weather front will move into the Chukchi Sea Sat evening 
with strong winds developing in the SW Arctic.

$$

PKZ225-130315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-130315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt becoming S 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-130315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-130315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-130315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
438 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Mar 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong Arctic cold front over the Central North Slope and
Western Interior will move east across the Interior and Eastern
North Slope tonight and Thu. This will bring much colder air
across those areas along with winds, snow and blowing snow.

A polar occluded front that lies from Denali to Fort Yukon will
persist tonight then move east on Thu. This will cause another
1-3 inches of snow through Thu PM over the Interior south and East
of Livengood and over the North Slope east of Prudhoe Bay, with
another 4 inches along the Alaska Range. Expect Northwest winds of
15 mph gusting to 30 mph with blowing snow over much of the
Eastern Interior from late tonight through Thu morning, but will
see N-NW winds gusting to 40 mph with low visibility in blowing
snow through Alaska Range Passes and over the Alaska Highway
tonight through Fri night.

West winds 20 mph and brief low visibility in snow and blowing
snow over the Deadhorse area this afternoon will move east this
evening. The Barter Island area will see west winds 35 mph and
blizzard conditions in snow and blowing snow from late tonight
through Thu afternoon.

A polar low moving east across the Bering Sea along the ice edge
will bring gale force winds and blizzard conditions to the Yukon
Delta late tonight through Thu morning.

High pressure building over the Western Interior Thu and all of
Interior Fri will bring clearing and much colder temperatures.

A strong low moving into the Western Bering Sea on Fri is expected
to spread gales, snow and possible blizzard conditions to St
Lawrence Is Fri night and Sat, with a chance of Blizzard
conditions to the remainder of the West Coast on Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions
through Sat. Models precipitation fields are fairly similar
through Fri, with slight differences on Sat. Will use a blend of
models for precip location and amounts.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on features over
Alaska. Models are all a bit too far NE and about 3 mb too weak
with the 15Z location of the low in the NW Bering Sea. The
Canadian model track this low further south and a bit deeper than
other models as the low moves east tonight. Given that this
feature is set up for Polar Low development moving east right
along the ice edge, favor the Canadian model track with this
feature, but expect it will be at least 5 mb deeper than models
indicate with gale fore winds as would be expected with a polar
low. This will bring Blizzard conditions to the Yukon Delta late
tonight into Thu morning. Will use a blend of models for other
surface features. Models see larger differences on depth and
location of surface low in the Western Bering Sea on Fri and Sat.
A this time will use the GFS on this feature as it maintains the
deepest solution.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of models
temps, clouds, precip location and amounts. Will use a blend of
models to surface features and winds through Fri, except use
Canadian models for track of low moving across Bering Sea tonight
and Thu AM and will bump up winds 5-10 kt to account for polar
low development.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JB MAR 21