Winter Weather Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

369 
WWAK42 PAFC 011238
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

AKZ161-020145-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.210202T1000Z-210203T0000Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
338 AM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM 
AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected. Blowing snow
  expected. Total accumulations up to 5 inches, mainly from 
  Dillingham west to Togiak. Ice accumulations of around one tenth
  of an inch are expected along the AKPEN from Pilot Point to 
  Egegik. Winds gusting as high as 25 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at times
  from Dillingham to Togiak. Drifting snow is likely. The cold 
  wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow and sleet will develop 
  early Tuesday morning from Cape Newenham to Togiak and move 
  east across Bristol Bay. The wintry mix will change to snow 
  from Togiak to King Salmon by mid-morning. Warmer air aloft 
  over the northern AKPEN will allow for freezing rain to 
  develop early Tuesday morning before transitioning to snow by 
  late Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ155-020145-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.210202T0000Z-210203T0000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
338 AM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 PM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Blowing snow expected. Total 
  accumulations of 4 to 10 inches, with the highest amounts along 
  the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at
  times. Drifting snow is likely. The dangerously cold wind 
  chills as low as 35 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed 
  skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop along the Kuskokwim Delta
  coast Monday afternoon. The snow may briefly mix with sleet and
  freezing rain for locations around the Kuskokwim Delta during
  the onset of the precipitation before becoming all snow by
  Monday evening. The snow will move slowly east across the Delta,
  reaching Bethel overnight Monday. The snow will taper off from 
  west to east Tuesday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

995 
WWAK42 PAFC 020130
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 PM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

AKZ155-021500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
430 PM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet occurring. Blowing snow occurring. Total 
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with the highest amounts along 
  the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at
  times. Drifting snow is likely. Dangerously cold wind chills as
  low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue to move into the
  Kuskokwim Delta coast this evening. The snow may briefly mix
  with sleet for coastal locations around the Kuskokwim Delta
  during the onset of the precipitation before becoming all snow
  later this evening. The snow will move slowly east across the 
  Delta, reaching Bethel overnight tonight. The snow will taper 
  off from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ161-021500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.210202T1000Z-210203T0000Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
430 PM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM
AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected. Blowing snow
  expected. Total accumulations up to 7 inches, mainly from
  Dillingham west to Togiak. Ice accumulations up to one tenth of
  an inch are expected along the AKPEN from Pilot Point to 
  Egegik. Winds gusting as high as 25 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at 
  times from Dillingham to Togiak. Drifting snow is likely. The 
  cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow and sleet will develop early
  Tuesday morning from Cape Newenham to Togiak and move east
  across Bristol Bay. The wintry mix will quickly change to snow
  from Togiak to King Salmon by mid-morning. Warmer air aloft 
  over the northern AKPEN may allow for freezing rain to develop 
  early Tuesday morning before transitioning to snow by late 
  Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

197 
WWAK42 PAFC 021332
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

AKZ155-030000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
432 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Total accumulations of 4
  to 6 inches, with the highest amounts over and west of Bethel. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at
  times. Drifting snow is likely. Dangerously cold wind chills as
  low as 20 below zero this morning could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow has moved over the Kuskokwim Delta
  this morning. Winds will remain strong and gradually decrease 
  through the afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ161-030000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0000Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
432 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Total accumulations up 
  to 7 inches, mainly from Dillingham west to Togiak. Winds 
  gusting as high as 25 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at times
  from Dillingham to Togiak. Drifting snow is likely. The cold
  wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mostly snow has been falling this morning
  though a slight chance for freezing rain exists from Pilot Point
  to Egegik. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

858 
WWAK42 PAFC 022024
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1124 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

AKZ155-030600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
1124 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Additional accumulations
  of 1 to 2 inches of snow are expected. Winds gusting as high as
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at
  times. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero 
  this morning could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little 
  as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing snow will continue through the 
  early afternoon before winds shift and slowly subside. Snow will
  continue through the afternoon before diminishing late this 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ161-030600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0600Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
1124 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Additional 
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected. Winds 
  gusting as high as 25 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at times
  from Dillingham to Togiak. The cold wind chills as low as 20 
  below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as
  30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing snow will continue through the 
  early afternoon before winds shift and slowly subside. Snow will
  continue through the afternoon before diminishing late this 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

423 
WWAK42 PAFC 030016
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

AKZ155-030600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Winds gusting as 
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at
  times. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing snow and snow will continue to
  slowly diminish through this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-030600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0600Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
316 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Winds gusting as 
  high as 25 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility to as low as one half mile at times
  from Dillingham to Togiak. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing snow and snow will continue to
  slowly diminish through this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

265 
WWAK42 PAFC 030336
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
636 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

AKZ155-161-030445-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210203T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, Nunivak Island, 
King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point
636 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow and blowing snow have diminished across the areas. 

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 PM AKST Sun Jan 31 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An eastward moving short wave tracking across Southcentral this
morning brought light snow to the Copper River Basin and North
Gulf Coast. Gusty outflow winds continued through Thompson Pass.
Subsidence under the upper ridge aided the development of stratus
and fog from the Knik Valley and the lower Matanuska Valley to
across Knik Arm and Anchorage Bowl this morning. These conditions
have since improved.

Out west, except for some clouds along the Delta Coast, fair skies
and cold temperatures were observed over the Southwest Mainland.
Gusty winds over the Delta and locally gusty winds across
interior Bristol Bay produced wind chills in the -20s. The broad
frontal system over the Central Aleutians/Bering Sea is moving
ever so slowly as the upper ridge to the east slows its eastward
progression. Broad and gusty southerly flow over the region
continued cloudy and warm conditions with areas of rain (mainly
Aleutians/Bering).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models still struggle with the progression of the frontal system
toward western Alaska. The timing differences stem from the
development of a surface wave along the front and its movement.
Positioning and timing of this wave/front will significantly
affect potential impacts to Coastal Southwest Alaska. A slower
frontal progression will likely be the best as the upper ridge
and cold air over the Mainland will be difficult to displace.
Models are in generally good agreement across Southcentral and the
Gulf. Outflow and gap winds will be the main concerns and will be
largely addressed with targeted edits and high res models.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. North winds will increase and
become rather gusty Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Wednesday)...

Stronger wind gradients and colder temperatures dipping to -20
to -30 degrees Celsius in the mid-levels north and east of the
Matanuska Valley through Copper River Basin and along the coast of
Prince William Sound will generate headlines for the next couple
days. A highly anticipated strong polar low and its associated
upper level trough will continue to move southward tonight
through Monday night, which will cause falling air temperatures
to expand to just east of the Anchorage Bowl and Susitna Valley.
A Wind Chill Advisory was issued for both Thompson Pass and Broad
Pass effective tonight through at least Tuesday afternoon to
mirror the onset of the strong polar low and falling temperatures.
The models are still consistent about the track of the polar low
including the area of low pressure over the northern Gulf this
evening through Monday. A strong off-shore flow pattern will
persist with much higher gusts near the passes and gaps tonight
through at least Monday night.

An upper level high from Southwest Alaska will not move past its
current spot due to significant energy associated with the polar
low. Yet, very strong winds on the leading edge of the high will
continue to reinforce the northerly motion of the polar low into
Monday evening. A High Wind Warning was issued for Thompson Pass
to reflect this situation. Overall, very strong gusts and really
cold temperatures in the single digits to below zero will spread
across the area over the next couple days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Sunday to
Tue morning)...

A cold air mass remains in place over much of the Southwest this
evening, although temperatures are beginning to come up closer to
0 F as winds begin to pick up slightly and as upper level clouds
slow radiational cooling. These clouds are associated with the
outer reaches of a strong front over the central Bering, and
offshore easterly winds will increase through Monday as the front
approaches from the west. While temperatures across the Southwest
should continue to slowly warm over the next couple days, expect
bitterly cold wind chills to stay in the -20 to -30 F range over
much of the Kuskokwim Delta area due to the increasing winds.

As the front reaches the Southwest coast, snow will overspread the
area from southwest to northeast. A warm nose aloft may lead to a
period of wintry mix near the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay,
including sleet and perhaps a short period of freezing rain
along the immediate Bering coastline. Blowing snow is likely with
the snow as the front moves ashore on Tuesday, especially for areas
north and west of Bethel, including Hooper Bay down to Toksook
Bay. The heaviest snowfall totals will be near the same region of
the western Kuskokwim Delta, with storm totals of 6 to 9 inches
of accumulation near the coast and lower amounts in the 2 to 6
inch range farther southeast near Bristol Bay. Models have
struggled with the timing and evolution with this front up to this
point, but are coming into better agreement this afternoon. Thus,
have increasing forecast confidence for impactful blowing and
falling snow over much of the Y-K Delta. Stay tuned for further
updates and possible winter weather headlines for the Tuesday snow
and blowing snow potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Sunday to
Tue morning)...

A strong but gradually weakening gale force front will continue
marching gradually east into the eastern Bering through Tuesday.
Rain and gusty winds ahead of the front will slowly decrease as
the front progresses east until the front moves inland over
Southwest Alaska on Tuesday. Colder air and somewhat clearer skies
will push in behind the front with widely scattered snow and rain
showers persisting within an expanse of cold westerly flow. The
front's parent low over the far western Bering will continue to
lift slowly north, with southerly small craft winds possible near
the low across the far western Bering/Aleutians through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Generally light winds and low seas will persist on
Wednesday. However, there is some uncertainty as to whether a
surface low will bring a front to the North Gulf Coast by
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. By Friday morning, there is
higher confidence that a front, with the potential for gale force
winds, will enter the southwest Gulf and spread across the Gulf
through late Friday. The biggest uncertainty is the track of the
associated low.

Bering Sea: A gale force front on Wednesday, with the potential
for storm force gusts over the central Bering and Aleutians, will
continue to track eastward and weaken over the eastern Bering
late Thursday. A strong North Pacific low will lift northward
towards the eastern Aleutians on Friday morning, but there is
still much uncertainty with the track of this low, the timing of
the low, and the strength. Models agree that this system will have
gale force winds accompanying it on Friday, but are struggling on
whether the system will track into the eastern Bering as far
north as the Pribilofs or whether the low center will remain south
of the Aleutian Chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long term starts with high pressure over mainland AK with a
ridge extending into Southwest AK. The remnants of weak low
pressure exists along the Gulf of AK coast and low pressure exists
in the western Bering as well. Weather stays generally quiet for
the next day or so, until a moderately strong low pressure system
moves directly north out of the North Pacific on Friday. It then
progresses north through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Up until this point, models are in agreement with the
pattern and the movement and strength of this low. So, high
confidence that we will see low pressure impacts the Eastern
Aleutians and AKPEN on Friday.

Past this point, models diverge on the track of the low. The GFS
takes a more westerly track and brings the low through the Eastern
Bering and sends a front and secondary low through the Northern
Gulf of AK and into the Southcentral Coast over the weekend. The
ECMWF take more of an easterly track and sends the low into SW AK
and then into Western Mainland AK. The ECMWF also spins up a front
along the Gulf coast, but a much weaker one. What we can glean
from this is high confidence that Southwest AK will see inclement
weather this weekend, as both models have the region being
impacted one way or another. We have lower confidence in the track
of the low and the strength of the front along the Gulf coast.
So, low confidence in the track of the low, but since both models
have some kind of front along the Gulf coast, we can have moderate
confidence there will be weather there this weekend. Weather for
interior Southcentral will remain quiet to start and we will need
to see how the forecast shapes up for the incoming front next
weekend before we make decisions there.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 131.
		 Wind Chill Advisory: 131 145.
MARINE...Gale: 120-128 130 139 155 165 170 172-174 179 180 181 185
			   412-414.
Heavy Freezing Spray: 121 126 127 129 130 139 140 160 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...AH/BB