Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

355 
WWAK42 PAFC 041214
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

AKZ155-050300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.210304T1500Z-210305T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
314 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one quarter mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected for 
  Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast from Quinhagak to 
  Hooper Bay in association with the strongest winds. Farther 
  inland, winds will not be quite as strong. However, the 
  combination of snow and blowing snow will likely reduce 
  visibilities as low as one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-050315-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.210304T2000Z-210305T0800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
314 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 11 PM AKST TONIGHT FOR BRISTOL BAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 11 PM AKST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to a low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along 
  the Bristol Bay coast, especially from Dillingham west to Cape 
  Newenham. Farther inland, winds are not expected to be as 
  gusty, but the combination of snow and blowing snow may still 
  reduce visibilities to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

003 
WWAK42 PAFC 050034
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

AKZ155-050300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210305T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
334 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility has improved across Nunivak
  Island and the northwestern Kuskokwim Delta. Visibility remains
  restricted to a quarter mile or less throughout portions of the
  southwest Kuskokwim Delta, however visibility will rapidly
  improve in the next few hours. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-050800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T0800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
334 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKST
THIS EVENING FOR BRISTOL BAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility to as low as one 
  half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along the
  Bristol Bay Coast, especially from Dillingham west to Cape
  Newenham. Farther inland, winds are not expected to be as gusty,
  but the combination of snow and blowing snow may still reduce
  visibilities to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

391 
WWAK42 PAFC 050255
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
555 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

AKZ155-050400-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210305T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
555 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

The front has passed through most of the region although blizzard
conditions may continue for the next hour. Blowing snow may occur
through the evening. 

$$

AKZ161-050800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T0800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
555 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility to as low as one 
  half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along 
  the Bristol Bay Coast, especially from Dillingham west to Cape 
  Newenham. Farther inland, winds are not expected to be as 
  gusty, but the combination of snow and blowing snow may still 
  reduce visibilities to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

382 
WWAK42 PAFC 050311
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
611 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

AKZ152-051615-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T1700Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
611 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  up to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds up to 25 mph will cause periods
  of blowing snow this evening. Winds should decrease from west to
  east through early Friday morning. Snow will persist through
  Friday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ161-050800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T0800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
611 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility to as low as one 
  half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along 
  the Bristol Bay Coast, especially from Dillingham west to Cape 
  Newenham. Farther inland, winds are not expected to be as 
  gusty, but the combination of snow and blowing snow may still 
  reduce visibilities to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

202 
WWAK42 PAFC 050620
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
920 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

AKZ195-051400-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.210305T0900Z-210305T1400Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
920 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to
  2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds will increase through the
  overnight hours and start to shift to northwest. Snow showers
  will intensify overnight as well causing visibility to drop to
  one half mile at times. The worst conditions will likely be over
  St George Island in the pre-dawn hours. Winds will persist on
  Friday, but snow showers will start to ease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ152-051500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T1700Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
920 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds up to 25 mph will cause 
  periods of blowing snow this evening. Winds should decrease 
  from west to east through early Friday morning. Snow will 
  persist through Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ161-050800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T0800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
920 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Bristol Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility to as low as one 
  half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along 
  the Bristol Bay Coast, especially from Dillingham west to Cape 
  Newenham. Farther inland, winds are not expected to be as 
  gusty, but the combination of snow and blowing snow may still 
  reduce visibilities to one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

490 
WWAK42 PAFC 050808
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1108 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

AKZ161-050915-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T0800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
1108 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Light snow will continue overnight. Meanwhile, the wind is also
diminishing.

$$

AKZ152-051700-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T1700Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
1108 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Additional snow 
  accumulations of up to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds up to 25 mph will cause 
  periods of blowing snow this evening. Winds should decrease 
  from west to east through early Friday morning. Snow will 
  persist through Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ195-051400-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.210305T0900Z-210305T1400Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
1108 PM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow occurring. Total snow accumulations of up 
  to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds will increase through the 
  overnight hours and start to shift to northwest. Snow showers 
  will intensify overnight as well causing visibility to drop to 
  one half mile at times. The worst conditions will likely be 
  over St George Island in the pre-dawn hours. Winds will 
  persist on Friday, but snow showers will start to ease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

198 
WWAK42 PAFC 051301
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

AKZ195-052000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T2000Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
401 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11 AM AKST 
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow occurring. Total snow accumulations of up 
  to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM AKST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong west winds will gradually diminish
  in the afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow showers will lowered
  visibility to half a mile at times and could drop as low as one
  quarter mile for short periods of time. The worst conditions 
  are expected into early this morning for both Saint Paul and 
  Saint George Islands. Snow will begin to ease in the afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

AKZ152-051700-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T1700Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
401 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Additional snow 
  accumulations of up to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

490 
WWAK42 PAFC 051654
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
754 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

AKZ152-051800-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T1700Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
754 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

Visibility has improved across the area, and snowfall will 
gradually taper from west to east through the morning hours.

$$

AKZ195-052000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T2000Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
754 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Blowing snow occurring. Total snow accumulations of up 
  to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM AKST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility to as low as one half mile.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong west winds will gradually diminish 
  in the afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow showers will lowered 
  visibility to half a mile at times and could drop as low as 
  one quarter mile for short periods of time. The worst 
  conditions are expected into early this morning for both Saint 
  Paul and Saint George Islands. Snow will begin to ease in the 
  afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

661 
WWAK42 PAFC 052000
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1100 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

AKZ195-052100-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-210305T2000Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
1100 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

Snow showers and gusty winds will continue throughout the day.
Brief periods of blowing snow may limit visibility at times,
however conditions are expected to improve.


$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Lingering showers have diminished across the North Gulf Coast this
morning as a mature complex low in the Gulf exits southward. Low
stratus and fog over Cook Inlet has moved over Anchorage early
this morning. Along the coastal locations, the northerly outflow
pattern continues out of the usual gap areas across Southcentral.
Farther west, conditions have improved from blizzard criteria
across the Southwest mainland, Aleutians, and Pribilofs overnight.
However, strong winds and lingering snowfall continue early this
morning. Brief upper level ridging is set up behind this system
across the central Bering and Aleutians, with the next storm force
front just west of Shemya ready to enter the western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern over
the Bering Sea over the next few day. By Friday, models start to
diverge with the development of a triple point low near Kodiak
Island. There is still some uncertainty in the track and strength
of the low position and whether this will bring snowfall or
downsloping to Southcentral by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Freezing fog over Cook Inlet has drifted into the terminal
this morning. Conditions should improve by this afternoon with
light northerly winds and VFR conditions expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Thursday Night)...

The weather begins to turn a bit more active by the tail end of
the forecast period Thursday night into Friday. Until then, gap
winds, freezing spray in many of the marine areas, and freezing
fog around Cook Inlet will be the primary hazards.

Freezing fog has developed around the Anchorage area, down
Turnagain Arm, and along the western foothills of the Kenai
Mountains this morning. The dissipation of at least some of the
high cloud cover that started out the night last night is likely
at least part of the cause of the fog, along with lingering
moisture. With the strengthening March sun, the fog should
dissipate, or at least lift by around midday today in most areas.
However, the fog is likely to redevelop again tonight with very
little change in the large scale weather pattern expected between
now and tonight.

With the renewed shot of colder air, freezing spray (with
localized areas of heavy freezing spray) will be an issue both
today as the winds increase through the gaps through Thursday
morning, and then again after the next front moves through on
Friday through Friday night. The freezing spray concern will be
felt even around Kodiak Island. For most of the rest of
Southcentral, it should simply mean continued below normal
temperatures through the forecast period.

The gap winds will keep conditions windy through Resurrection Bay
and Seward, the Whittier area, Thompson Pass, and the Copper River
Delta through Thursday morning. Gusts to 60 mph are possible
through Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta, with gusts to 40
mph possible for Whittier and the Seward area.

The next bout of snow is expected from Thursday night through
Saturday morning for portions of the area. Since this moisture
will be largely devoid of warm air, as it will be a cold air mass
replacing a warmer, but still below freezing air mass, most areas,
even along the coast should see at least mostly snow. The snow
will begin around midnight Thursday night as a front eventually
succumbs to a low developing along it. The low center will track
just south of Kodiak Island by Friday morning, but Gulf moisture
with temperatures right around freezing could make for several
inches of accumulation across Kodiak Island. The snow will quickly
spread north along the coastal mountains Friday morning, but
Anchorage, the Valley, and the western Kenai will start off
largely downsloped, with little in the way of any precipitation
expected. That could change come Friday evening into Friday night
with the approach of an upper level wave and the Gulf low moving
away effectively ending the downsloping. While we are generally
looking at a 1 to 4 inch snowfall event as of now, that remains a
highly uncertain forecast. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

The radars at Bethel (PABC) and King Salmon (PAKC) have been
active overnight and early this morning. Northerly and
northwesterly winds have been strong enough to causing drifting
and blowing snow. The tight pressure gradient over southwest
Alaska will continue into the afternoon, then it will slacken and
there will be a lull. Thursday morning the winds will shift as a
new front moves into the eastern Bering. Another batch of snow is
forecast for Southwest Alaska on Thursday. The potential exception
will be the Alaska Peninsula which could see a rain snow mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

In the wake of the recent frontal passage, northerly flow has set
up over the eastern Bering. Meanwhile, a new front is pushing into
the western Bering complete with a "baroclinic leaf" on satellite
imagery. Early this morning, the ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer)
data detected gale force winds with the enhanced northerly flow
over the eastern Bering and the new front impacting the western
Aleutians. There is a a weak transient ridge over the Central
Aleutians. However, the pattern is so progressive the new front
will be over the eastern Aleutians and moving into the western
Alaskan mainland Thursday afternoon. Expect more unsettled weather
for the Bering and the Aleutians the next 48 hrs.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Bering Sea: A low and trailing front approaching the Alaska
Peninsula from the west will bring widespread westerly gales with
an area of storm force winds and 30 feet seas moving with the
low, or north of the Eastern Aleutians on Fri morning. Winds
decrease to gales over the Eastern Bering by Sat with seas
decreasing to 20 feet. Another strong front moves north across the
Western Bering/Aleutians late Fri into Sat. High end westerly
gale force to possibly storm force winds and seas building to 25
feet over the Western Bering are expected for Sat. Some model
uncertainty persists, but overall confidence is good. A low
approaches the Central Aleutians from the North Pacific early Sun
with southerly gales spreading into the central Bering with seas
remaining in the mid-20s through Sun. Up to storm force winds are
again possible for parts of the central Bering with this next
system on Sun, but confidence for these higher winds is lower by
this point in the forecast.

Gulf of Alaska: A low and front trailing to the south of Kodiak
Island move into the western Gulf Fri with northwesterly gales
moving in over the western bering just behind low and front. Waves
build to 10 to 15 feet in the western Gulf on Fri and up to 20
feet in the southern Gulf by early Sat. Confidence for this
portion of the forecast is good, but uncertainty for the low track
increases as it drifts towards the central/northern Gulf on Sat.
There is better confidence for a region of at least northwesterly
gales to continue southwest of the low near the southeastern Gulf,
but the region of highest winds will depend on the uncertain low
track. By Sun, confidence increases for the low to exit into the
North Pacific with northerly winds decreasing to small crafts or
lower and seas subsiding to 10 feet by Sun evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The models are in surprisingly good agreement at the start of this
forecast period, with only moderate agreement through the
weekend. The active pattern is expected to continue.

Models keep a strong Arctic/Siberian upper level low rotating
around northeast Russia with an attendant trough stretching
southeastward across western Alaska and the eastern Aleutians at
the start of the period. A shortwave moving along the trough
extending from the aforementioned upper low will help force a
lower level circulation which may develop over the Alaskan
Peninsula and track into the northern Gulf. While details are very
much uncertain with this and even farther out, there could be
another trough moving across the Aleutians and Bering at the end
of the forecast period.

Overall, expect milder temperatures for this time period with
readings still slightly below normal but closer to the normal
values of where they typically are this time of the year which is
near 32 degrees F for Anchorage. This pattern could potentially
mean a snowier regime for Southcentral and in particular across
the Anchorage Bowl. However, many factors have to come together
for Anchorage to get the snow, though, the storm track looks
favorable with model guidance mostly bringing lows near and into
Prince William Sound with details of each uncertain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 181.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177 178 185 411
         Gale Warning 130 131 138 150 155 165 171-76
                      179 180 181 412-14
         Heavy Freezing Spray 121 130 160 165 179 180
                      185 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ALH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...AS/NR