Winter Storm Watch 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

378 
WWAK41 PAFC 250040
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

AKZ101-251500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T1500Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
340 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible from freezing rain. Total 
  ice accumulations of up to three tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday and the 
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers late Saturday night will 
  transition over to freezing rain as a warm air mass moves in 
  aloft overtop of colder air in the lower elevations of the 
  Anchorage Bowl. This will allow intensifying precipitation to 
  fall as freezing rain, especially along the mountains of east 
  Anchorage and the Hillside. Lesser amounts of ice are expected 
  in west Anchorage, where up to two tenths of an inch of ice 
  are possible.

* Confidence is high that there will be periods of freezing 
  rain, but much lower on amounts and the timing. Stay tuned for 
  additional forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

AKZ111-251500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T1500Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
340 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and significant icing from freezing rain possible. 
  Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches north and east of 
  Palmer, including Sutton and Chickaloon, with ice 
  accumulations of up to three tenths of an inch possible for 
  the entire Valley.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday and the 
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow starting early Sunday morning will 
  transition to freezing rain through the afternoon from 
  southwest to northeast as warm air moving in aloft melts 
  falling snow and temperatures remain below freezing at the 
  ground.

* Confidence is high that there will be periods of freezing 
  rain, but much lower on amounts and the timing. Stay tuned for 
  additional forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

AKZ125-251500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T1500Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
340 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of 
  up to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portage Valley and Eastern Turnagain Arm.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday and the 
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any early Sunday morning snow will 
  quickly transition over to freezing rain through Portage 
  Valley and Eastern Turnagain Arm. Occasionally heavy 
  precipitation rates are likely to cause significant icing 
  along the Seward Highway. For higher elevations of the Seward 
  Highway, all rain is expected as temperatures rise above 
  freezing, with the heaviest amounts the further north you go. 
  However, rain and drizzle falling on the frozen ground will 
  still cause very slick conditions all along the Seward Highway 
  corridor.

* Confidence is high that there will be periods of freezing 
  rain, but much lower on amounts and the timing. Stay tuned for 
  additional forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

267 
WWAK41 PAFC 250740 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1040 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

AKZ101-251500-
/O.COR.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T1500Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
1040 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible from freezing rain. Total 
  ice accumulations of up to three tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday and the 
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers late Saturday night will 
  transition over to freezing rain as a warm air mass moves in 
  aloft overtop of colder air in the lower elevations of the 
  Anchorage Bowl. This will allow intensifying precipitation to 
  fall as freezing rain, especially along the mountains of east 
  Anchorage and the Hillside. Lesser amounts of ice are expected 
  in west Anchorage, where up to two tenths of an inch of ice 
  are possible.

* Confidence is high that there will be periods of freezing 
  rain, but much lower on amounts and the timing. Stay tuned for 
  additional forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

AKZ111-251500-
/O.COR.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T1500Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
1040 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow and significant icing from freezing rain possible. 
  Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches north and east of 
  Palmer, including Sutton and Chickaloon, with ice 
  accumulations of up to three tenths of an inch possible for 
  the entire Valley.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday and the 
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow starting early Sunday morning will 
  transition to freezing rain through the afternoon from 
  southwest to northeast as warm air moving in aloft melts 
  falling snow and temperatures remain below freezing at the 
  ground.

* Confidence is high that there will be periods of freezing 
  rain, but much lower on amounts and the timing. Stay tuned for 
  additional forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

AKZ125-251500-
/O.COR.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T1500Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
1040 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of 
  up to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portage Valley and Eastern Turnagain Arm.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday and the 
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any early Sunday morning snow will 
  quickly transition over to freezing rain through Portage 
  Valley and Eastern Turnagain Arm. Occasionally heavy 
  precipitation rates are likely to cause significant icing 
  along the Seward Highway. For higher elevations of the Seward 
  Highway, all rain is expected as temperatures rise above 
  freezing, with the heaviest amounts the further north you go. 
  However, rain and drizzle falling on the frozen ground will 
  still cause very slick conditions all along the Seward Highway 
  corridor.

* Confidence is high that there will be periods of freezing 
  rain, but much lower on amounts and the timing. Stay tuned for 
  additional forecast updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

253 
WWAK41 PAFC 251340
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

AKZ145-260200-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1800Z-211227T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
440 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD...

* WHAT...Snow and freezing rain with significant icing possible.
  Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches possible. Ice
  accumulations of up to one quarter inch possible.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley from Talkeetna Southward.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light snow are likely Saturday
  through Saturday night. Snow will then transition from snow to
  freezing rain during the day Sunday from south to north.
  Precipitation will then likely transition back to snow Sunday
  evening. Precipitation to the north of Talkeetna is expected to
  remain all snow throughout this event. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

AKZ101-260200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T0900Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
440 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain with significant icing possible. Total ice
  accumulations of up to one quarter inch possible.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will develop late Saturday night
  and transition to freezing rain Sunday morning. The heaviest
  precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon, though there is a
  good chance that temperatures across part of Anchorage will rise
  above freezing. The typically colder areas of east Anchorage and
  Eagle River are likely to hold on to sub-freezing temperatures
  and freezing rain, so will likely see the most ice accumulation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

AKZ111-260200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T0900Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
440 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and freezing rain with significant icing possible.
  Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches north and east of
  Palmer, including Sutton and Chickaloon. Ice accumulations of 
  up to three tenths of an inch possible for the entire Valley.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop Saturday night and
  transition to freezing rain during the day Sunday. The heaviest
  precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon. Freezing rain could
  turn back to snow before diminishing Sunday night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

AKZ125-260200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T0900Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
440 AM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING NORTH OF THE STERLING HIGHWAY JUNCTION...

* WHAT...Freezing rain with significant icing possible. Total ice
  accumulations of up to one quarter inch possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Kenai Peninsula north of the Sterling Highway 
  junction, including Turnagain Pass and eastern Turnagain Arm.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely hazardous. The hazardous
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light snow are expected to develop
  early Sunday morning and quickly transition to freezing rain.
  Temperatures will likely vary along the Seward Highway, with
  warmer temperatures at higher elevations, ultimately rising
  above freezing by Sunday afternoon. Lower elevations and
  protected valleys will hold on to the colder air and see the 
  most freezing rain and ice accumulation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

656 
WWAK41 PAFC 260049
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

AKZ145-261500-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1800Z-211227T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0075.211226T1200Z-211227T0900Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
349 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and Freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to 10 inches north of Talkeetna. Ice accumulations up to
  one quarter of an inch possible from Talkeetna south.

* WHERE...Susitna Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Sunday to midnight AKST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Holiday travel could be extremely hazardous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light snow will begin tonight. 
  Snow will then transition to freezing rain during the day Sunday
  from south to north. Precipitation may transition back to snow 
  Sunday evening. Precipitation to the north of Talkeetna is 
  expected to remain all snow throughout this event.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-111-125-261500-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.A.0017.211226T1500Z-211227T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0075.211226T1500Z-211227T0900Z/
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna, 
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, Chickaloon, Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
349 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Ice accumulations up to two
  tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Anchorage, Matanuska Valley and Western Prince William 
  Sound.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight AKST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Holiday travel could be extremely hazardous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any light snow late Saturday night will
  begin to transition to freezing rain Sunday morning. The
  heaviest precipitation is expected Sunday evening. There is a
  good chance that temperatures across parts of Anchorage will
  rise above freezing as a southerly wind develops. Temperatures 
  along the Seward Highway through Turnagain Arm will vary. 
  Typically colder areas of east Anchorage, Eagle River, and the 
  lower elevations along the Seward Highway north of the Sterling 
  Highway Junction could remain cold enough for freezing rain to 
  remain and will likely result in the most ice accumulation.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-261500-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0075.211226T1500Z-211227T0900Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
349 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and Freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Copper River Basin.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight AKST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact holiday travel on Sunday. Power outages
  are possible. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop tonight. Snow will
  transition to freezing rain along the Glenn Highway from
  Chickaloon to Tahneta Pass and from Chistochina to Slana during
  the afternoon and evening. Precipitation will then transition 
  back to snow Sunday night. The highest snow accumulations will 
  be north and east of Glennallen. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad high pressure system anchored over the deep North Pacific
is maintaining a ridge axis extending northward through the
southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula to beyond Nunivak Island. A
130 kt northern jet streak is positioned over Southcentral while a
110 kt southerly jet streak is located over the western
Aleutians. The variation of warm temperatures across the Bering
and along the Southwest Coast are well reflected by the presence
of the ridge. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough extends
northwestward from the eastern Gulf to Prince William Sound
through Hooper Bay. Clear to partly cloudy skies are being
observed south of the trough axis this morning over much of Southcentral.
An extensive cloud deck and warm moisture covers much of the
Bering Sea. This is being observed in multiple locations as low
stratus blankets much of the Bering this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with synoptic patterns through
the long-term. The NAM is slightly less amplified and a tad
farther north than the other models, but overall only minor
differences are observed. Precipitation type remains one of the
main forecast challenges. Strong fronts from the Northwest Pacific
will bring a lot of active weather across the Bering/Aleutians,
leading to multiple advisory/warnings headlined in the forecast
through the middle of next week. Over the Gulf, gales and strong
gap winds for Kamishak Bay through the Barren Islands will
continue through this morning. Overall, the forecast confidence is
good.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist. A chance of light
snowfall over the terminal this evening could lower ceilings to MVFR,
but conditions should improve back to VFR quickly.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

Subsidence on the front side of a very strong subtropical ridge
and associated offshore flow will lead to clear skies across
Southcentral today. Strong gap winds along the coast will
diminish this afternoon through tonight as the ridge shifts
eastward into Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska. The winds
are causing warmer air aloft to mix down to the surface, with
temperatures in the 30s to 40s along the Gulf coast and Kodiak
Island. As winds diminish, temperatures will begin to fall.

A series of weak upper level short-waves will track over top of
the ridge today, then cross Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska
tonight into Saturday before continuing southward down the east
side of the ridge. None of these short-waves looks particularly
strong and there is some uncertainty in the exact track of these
across Southcentral. Have leaned toward higher-resolution models
which key on a short-wave approaching the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley overnight tonight. With low
level westerly flow, upslope along the mountains will provide
some lift. Therefore, the latest forecast reflects an inch or two
of snow along the west side of the Kenai, Chugach and Talkeetna
Mountains - just in time for Christmas morning. The wider area of
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley could see some light snow as
well, but if so, accumulation should be quite minimal.

The forecast becomes much more challenging as we continue through
the remainder of the weekend. Weak short-waves aloft will continue
to transit the area. Again, none of these looks very strong.
Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will continue to shift slowly
eastward, advecting much warmer air aloft into the western Gulf
and northeastward across the Kenai Peninsula and toward Anchorage
and the Mat-Su. The deepest moisture and bulk of significant
precipitation with the warm front will initially stream northward
into the Interior Saturday through Sunday. However, overrunning
will produce some weak lift in Southcentral. Strengthening low
level southwest flow through the weekend will contribute some
vertical motion, favoring precipitation along the south to west
side of mountain ranges, especially over inland areas of
Southcentral. It then looks like a stronger short-wave will
flatten the ridge and bring much higher probabilities of
precipitation to Southcentral Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night.

While the airmass will start out cold enough for snow, freezing
rain will become increasingly likely later in the weekend.
Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su look particularly likely to
see some freezing rain in the Sunday-Sunday night time frame as
the aforementioned short-wave moves through. However, subtle
changes in the ridge position or track of the short-wave could
shift the precipitation shield north or south. Stay tuned as we
continue to evaluate the threat of freezing rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Saturday)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate with the axis
extending from the North Pacific to the AKPEN. Residual moisture
and light winds near the boundary layer trapped underneath the
ridge is spreading areas of low stratus and fog across the coastal
areas of Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Meanwhile, a shift in
the weather pattern will soon get underway as the ridge axis
starts to slide east into the Alaska mainland. An upper level wave
riding on top of the ridge with an area of low pressure lifting
across the Bering Sea will push a warm front into coastal
Southwest. A brief period of snow will fall this morning with the
front as warmer air overruns colder air. Snow will then quickly
change to mixing with or to freezing rain as the atmospheric
column of air continues to warm above the surface for the rest of
today. With the freezing rain in the forecast, this will have the
potential for any ice accumulation up to a tenth or two tenths of
inch for tonight into Saturday for northern areas of Bristol Bay
and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Please see the Winter Weather
Advisories for the wintry mix of precipitation on our webpage for
more details. By late Saturday, freezing rain and snow will
finally change over to all rain as southerly winds continue to
draw warmer air down to the surface. Daytime temperatures will
range anywhere in the upper 30s to low 40s with rain continuing
for portions of the coast and interior valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2:
Today and Saturday)...

An upper level wave will track through the Bering with rain and a
swath of high end small craft to low end gale force winds
extending across the central and eastern Aleutians today. Winds
are expected to subside near Nunivak Island with rain tapering off
by late tonight. Another wave and associated low will track from
the North Pacific and into the western Bering beginning Saturday
morning. This system will be stronger than the current one,
bringing a second round of rain and widespread gales across the
the Aleutians and extending northward into the Pribilofs. A warm
airmass associated with these systems will help maintain
temperatures well above freezing through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering...A low West of St Matthew Island weakens as it moves into
the Chukchi Sea Monday. Widespread high end gales moves across
the Bering, diminishing Monday. Seas to 23 feet over the Central
Bering, subsiding. A second low moves into the Western Bering by
Tuesday. Widespread high end gales move across the Bering through
Tuesday. Seas 20 to 25 feet likely across the Western Bering
Monday and Tuesday.

Gulf of Alaska...Low pressure persists over the Eastern Gulf,
with a trough over the Northern Gulf through Tuesday. Forecast
confidence is moderate with the timing of pressure changes. Gusty
winds spread Northward along the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf,
increasing to gales with potential storms through the Barren
Islands on Monday, diminishing Tuesday. Seas to 16 feet over the
Gulf on Monday, subsiding.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8/Monday through Thursday)...

The long term forecast period will be dominated by a North
Pacific ridge mostly centered over Southwest Alaska and the
Aleutian Chain. Downstream of this ridge is an upper level trough
over western North America which will largely remain in place
throughout the forecast period. Therefore, most of the very cold
conditions are expected to remain over British Columbia and the
Northwest Territories through much of the week. Periodically, the
center axis of the ridge will be pushed eastward into Southcentral
Alaska due to a more active storm track moving across the Bering
into Southwest. These systems will act to break down the ridge
from time to time keeping the core of warmest air and any rain
mostly for the southern Alaska Peninsula/Aleutian Chain, Southwest
and Kodiak Island area. Southcentral can expect a more variable
weather pattern with cold conditions at times with brief warm-ups
along with occasional snow with any system that passes through.
However, the precipitation type issues will remain as exactly how
far north the ridge builds to and where the individual systems
move will be a huge factor for the precipitation type across
Southcentral, especially Anchorage south. At first glance, it
appears the weather pattern we have been in with freezing rain for
the Kenai Peninsula and snow for Anchorage on north and east
looks to continue through this timeframe. However, the exact
details will be fine tuned over time and with consecutive model
runs. There is the potential for freezing rain in Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 152, 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 121, 130-131, 174-177, 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CB