Small Craft Advisory 1031, NWS Anchorage, AK

634 
FZAK51 PAFC 250002
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251245-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure will continue across the western Gulf. A weak low 
will the develop across the northern Gulf Sat night and move into 
the eastern Gulf and weaken Sun afternoon. Another weak low will 
develop Sun afternoon across the northern Gulf.

$$

PKZ119-251245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt except E 15 kts along the coast E of Montague
Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251245-
Resurrection Bay-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251245-
Prince William Sound-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251245-
Port Valdez-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251245-
Valdez Narrows-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251245-
Valdez Arm-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251245-
Passage Canal-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251245-
Barren Islands East-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251245-
Chiniak Bay-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251245-
Marmot Bay-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251245-
Shelikof Strait-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-251245-
Kachemak Bay-
302 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad, dominant high pressure system anchored over the deep
North Pacific maintains a ridge axis extending northward through
the southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula to beyond the Nunivak
Island. The variation of warm temperatures across the Bering and
along the Southwest Coast are well reflected by the presence of
the ridge. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough extends northwestward
from the eastern Gulf to Prince William Sound through Hooper Bay.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are seen south of the trough axis
while stratus and overcast conditions are seen farther inland
including parts of Copper River Basin and Matanuska Valley this
afternoon. An extensive cloud area and warm moisture covers much
of the Bering Sea, bringing steady light rain over Adak and parts
of the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions remained favorable of the synoptic patterns through
the long-term. Though ECMWF may a bit ahead of the rest but
solutions share very similar placements through the forecast
period. P-type remains a challenge for the forecast, but as long
as the Omega Blocking pattern stays in place over the North
Pacific, the calculated forward motion of the multiple fronts and
lows through the Bering may not be really difficult as expected.
Strong fronts from the Northwest Pacific will bring a lot of
active weather across the Bering/Aleutians, leading to multiple
advisory/warnings headlined in the forecast through the middle of
next week. Over the Gulf, gales and strong gap winds for Kamishak
Bay through the Barren Islands will continue through at least
Friday morning. Overall, the forecast confidence is good.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist, however
lingering moisture could result in a period of lower ceilings.
As stronger northwesterly winds develop aloft behind the low,
that should help to start clearing the area of any lower clouds
should they develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday afternoon)...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through terrain gaps into
early Friday morning as a result of a tight surface pressure
gradient combined with the east side of an upper level ridge
allowing for stronger cold advection. These begin to diminish by
Friday afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures are
expected for Saturday under the aforementioned ridge, although a
snow chance cannot be completely ruled out for Friday morning
across Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula near a fast-moving
shortwave trough. Flurries are possible over this same area
Christmas morning, however the main story will be precipitation
over the Susitna Valley. If air is warm enough aloft, ice pellets
or freezing rain would be possible with below freezing surface
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

A stubborn, amplified Pacific ridge axis extending into the
eastern Bering continues to be the dominant synoptic player in
the immediate term. West to northwest flow is streaming downstream
from the ridge this evening, supporting mostly weak westerly
winds across the region. Across the Y-K Delta, low stratus and fog
have become trapped by a strong inversion capped off by a warm,
dry layer associated with large scale subsidence near the
aforementioned ridge. Expect more areas of fog to develop
overnight along parts of the Bristol Bay coast, especially where
winds drop out and breaks form in areas of low clouds lingering
across the area.

For much of the remainder of the forecast, attention shifts to
what is increasingly looking like another impactful winter
weather system for parts of the region. On Friday, the crest of
the Pacific ridge will begin to shift east as a shortwave trough
works around it over the eastern Bering. This will set the stage
for an effective warm front aloft to send extremely warm
temperatures inland only a couple thousand feet or so above
ground level, with the nose of warm air aloft overriding
temperatures that will still be at or below freezing for much of
the region to start out with on Friday. The shortwave and frontal
system will move onshore by Friday evening, with the leading edge
of the associated precip (ahead of the warmer air) in the form of
snow. Warming temperatures above the surface with a continued
surge of southwest flow coincident with cool, dense air remaining
initially below freezing at ground level will result in snow
mixing with or changing over to freezing rain, especially over
interior valleys. The best potential for any ice accumulation (as
much as a tenth or two tenths of an inch) from late Friday into
Saturday will be over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and northern
portions of Bristol Bay, where Winter Weather Advisories for the
wintry mix of precipitation expected have been issued.

Later on Saturday, the relentless stream of warm air pushing in
from the southwest will continue to dramatically warm temperatures
both aloft and at the surface, allowing any falling precipitation
to switch over to all rain by about midday Saturday. Even warmer
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s are possible area-wide
on Sunday, with periods of mainly rain possible for portions of
the Y-K Delta and Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday)...

Continued quiet weather is on tap for eastern portions of the
area near a strong ridge of high pressure that continues to sit
in place across most of the Bering. To the west, a pair of low
pressure systems will spread gusty southerly winds and periods of
rain across the central/eastern Bering and Aleutians through the
weekend. The first low will cross into the Bering east of Shemya
tonight, bringing rain and winds up to gale force across the
central and western Aleutians through Friday afternoon. The first
low will weaken Friday night just ahead of a much stronger system
that will take a similar track north into the western Bering by
Saturday afternoon. Gale force winds will overspread much of the
Bering east of the center, impacting most of the Aleutian Chain
and Pribilofs from late Saturday into Sunday. Gusts to storm force
will be possible with the peak of the winds, especially along the
Western Aleutians. Warm temperatures well above freezing will
continue throughout the period.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering...A low West of St Matthew Island weakens as it moves into
the Chukchi Sea Monday. Widespread high end gales moves across
the Bering, diminishing Monday. Seas to 23 feet over the Central
Bering, subsiding. A second low moves into the Western Bering by
Tuesday. Widespread high end gales move across the Bering through
Tuesday. Seas 20 to 25 feet likely across the Western Bering
Monday and Tuesday.

Gulf of Alaska...Low pressure persists over the Eastern Gulf,
with a trough over the Northern Gulf through Tuesday. Forecast
confidence is moderate with the timing of pressure changes. Gusty
winds spread Northward along the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf,
increasing to gales with potential storms through the Barren
Islands on Monday, diminishing Tuesday. Seas to 16 feet over the
Gulf on Monday, subsiding.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8/Monday through Thursday)...

The long term forecast period will be dominated by a North
Pacific ridge mostly centered over Southwest Alaska and the
Aleutian Chain. Downstream of this ridge is an upper level trough
over western North America which will largely remain in place
throughout the forecast period. Therefore, most of the very cold
conditions are expected to remain over British Columbia and the
Northwest Territories through much of the week. Periodically, the
center axis of the ridge will be pushed eastward into Southcentral
Alaska due to a more active storm track moving across the Bering
into Southwest. These systems will act to break down the ridge
from time to time keeping the core of warmest air and any rain
mostly for the southern Alaska Peninsula/Aleutian Chain, Southwest
and Kodiak Island area. Southcentral can expect a more variable
weather pattern with cold conditions at times with brief warm-ups
along with occasional snow with any system that passes through.
However, the precipitation type issues will remain as exactly how
far north the ridge builds to and where the individual systems
move will be a huge factor for the precipitation type across
Southcentral, especially Anchorage south. At first glance, it
appears the weather pattern we have been in with freezing rain for
the Kenai Peninsula and snow for Anchorage on north and east
looks to continue through this timeframe. However, the exact
details will be fine tuned over time and with consecutive model
runs. There is the potential for freezing rain in Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 152 161.
MARINE...Gale 119-121 127 129-131 170 173-177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CB