Storm Warning 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

357 
FZAK62 PAFC 051214
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060145-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1003 mb low at 60N 170W moves across St. Lawrence Island Fri
afternoon. A front enters the southwestern Aleutians and moves
into the central Bering and Aleutians Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-060145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 20
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

190 
FZAK62 PAFC 060050
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061400-
350 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb North Pacific low moves into Central Kamchatka at 985 mb
for Sun afternoon. Its front moves over the Aleutians to stretch 
across the Northern and Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula by Sun
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 
17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

874 
FZAK62 PAFC 061233
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070200-
333 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front across the central Bering moves into the eastern Bering
Sat afternoon before moving into the northern Bering Sun morning.
A secondary front remains over the western/central Bering through
Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-070200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge remains stationed over the eastern Bering and
Southwest across into Southcentral. An upper level trough across
the western Aleutians and far western Bering is rotating around an
upper level low near the Kamchatka Peninsula.

At the surface, an area of weakening low pressure remains south of
Prince William Sound. The wintry mix of precipitation across
Southcentral seems to have completely tapered off, with a showery
pattern remaining across the northern Gulf. Low stratus and fog
can be seen across some of the coastal locations in the southwest
and the Kuskokwim Delta.

Small craft winds and waves can be seen along the eastern Bering
and Aleutians as the front continues towards the southwest coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in fairly good agreement on synoptic features
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect MVFR conditions to continue this morning with a low
stratus deck with VFR conditions resuming this evening. Winds
will remain light and out of the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Zonal flow aloft is over Southcentral and today into tonight will
be the break between systems. Even though the previous system is
well into Canada, lingering stratus remains over much of Cook
Inlet and the Mat-Su Valley regions as well as the Copper River
Basin. One of the big forecast questions today is whether this
stratus dissipates or hangs tough over the area. For the morning
forecast, going with it clearing out later today due to the 12Z
sounding showing some drying occurring throughout the atmosphere,
numerical models all indicating this, and it being a full day
since the precipitation moved out of the area. Typically this
stratus in zonal flow does not last much more than a day. In spite
of all these factors, the concern that it may not clear out comes
from the fact that it has not cleared out in southwest Alaska
yet, and there is not any significant clearing in the western
Cook Inlet or Susitna Valley areas.

An upper level wave will move into Southcentral Alaska Friday and
bring a chance for some light snowfall as it moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low stratus and fog continues to dominate areas across Southwest
this morning. However, as the axis of the upper level ridge moves
into the area later this morning and into the afternoon hours, any
fog and low stratus may lift. Some high clouds are moving in from
the frontal system out in the Bering that might prevent the sky
from totally clearing out especially across the Yukon-Kuskokwim
Delta. The Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay have the best
chances of seeing sunshine at some point today.

Any high clouds this afternoon across the area will begin to
lower and thicken as the frontal system and upper level shortwave
approach Southwest. There are two main upper level shortwaves that
are expected to move through Southwest with the first being during
the early evening (~6 pm). This first wave is very subtle but it
may be enough to bring a flurry to some coastal areas of the YK-
Delta during the early evening hours. The more potent upper level
shortwave/upper trough approaches during the late evening which
will bring snow and blowing snow to the coastal areas as winds
are expected to be southeasterly between 25 to 30 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for the YK Delta Coast for blowing snow and visibility reduced to
one half mile from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday. As the system
tracks inland, snow will overspread the inland areas of Southwest
with a general 0.5 to 2 inches for Bristol Bay and the Middle
Kuskokwim Valley. Highest amounts are expected along the YK Delta
Coast where up to 5 inches are expected. All activity will largely
wane from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening,
though, some lingering light snow shower activity may still be
around into early Saturday.

For the remainder of the forecast time period (Saturday into
Saturday night), another upper level ridge is expected to move
into the region bringing a return to some sunshine and colder
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A gale force frontal system continues moving across the eastern
Bering Sea this morning. This system will bring widespread
precipitation to the Pribilofs and the central and eastern
Aleutians through this evening. A mix of rain and snow is expected
for these areas before the deeper cold air moves back in Thursday
night for Dutch Harbor and then Friday morning for Cold Bay and
the Sand Point area. The front continues eastward and along the
AKPEN Friday morning while weakening.

Behind this system, an upper level ridge is expected to dominate
much of the central and eastern Bering. This will largely keep
much of the central and eastern Aleutians quiet as well as the
Pribilofs for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

A storm force system is expected to affect the western Aleutian
Island Chain beginning Friday afternoon with the front moving
slowly east reaching the Pribilofs and central to eastern
Aleutians Saturday evening/night. Expect widespread precipitation,
of rain and snow though mostly rain as this system will bring a
fair amount of warm air north with it. Also, strong winds and high
waves (20-30 ft) with 70 mph gusts are expected in Shemya. Right
now, do not expect hurricane force gusts for this area.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Southeast Gulf Sunday. Model
tracks differ slightly, but confidence is good through Monday.
Widespread westerly gale force winds and waves with high end gale
force gusts over the Gulf Saturday. These will diminish to small
craft winds Sunday, and continue weakening for Monday. Wave
heights to 21 feet Saturday move across the Gulf, subsiding to 10
feet Sunday. They continue to lay down as high pressure moves
into the Gulf through Monday.

Bering Sea: Eastern Bering high pressure yields as the central
Bering front swings into the northern Bering for Monday. The low
with this front swings along the western Bering before retreating
into the Russian far east. Model development is mixed, but
confidence is improving through Monday. Widespread southeast gale
force winds and waves with high end gale force gusts diminish
over the central Bering Sunday. Easterly small craft winds
continue over the Bering through Monday. Wave heights to 24 feet
over the western Bering and the Pacific side of the Aleutians
through Sunday, subsiding. Waves to 20 feet over the Bering
through the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term pattern features an amplified upper level ridge
over the Gulf and southern mainland, while upstream, a deep upper
level low will drop southward from Siberia over the western
Bering. By Monday, the pattern shifts slightly as the ridge moves
eastward and becomes broadened across the Aleutian Chain. As
another low arrives over the western Bering, the ridge becomes
highly amplified once again by Tuesday. This will result in a
pattern change over the Bering with much more warm southerly flow
expected for Tuesday, while for the mainland, a much colder Arctic
airmass remains in place. By Wednesday, the strong ridge continues
to build within close proximity of a deepening upper level low
over the mainland. This, combined with a strong temperature
gradient will likely increase winds across the southwest coast of
Alaska. This setup also results in a somewhat regressive pattern,
as several upper level waves will steer systems from east to west
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storms: 177 178.
         Gales: 130 131 165 170 171 172 175 176 180 181 185 411 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray: 139 160 180 181 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CRK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/KO