Small Craft Advisory 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

962 
FZAK52 PAFC 051214
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-060045-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1003 mb low 135 nm northwest of Mekoryuk moves across St. 
Lawrence Island Fri afternoon. A front enters the southwestern 
Aleutians and moves into the central Bering and Aleutians Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-060045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-060045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-060045-
Bristol Bay-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-060045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-060045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-060045-
Unalaska Bay-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-060045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 14 
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-060045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-060045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-060045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-060045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-060045-
Adak to Kiska-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft...Pacific side, seas 21
ft building to 28 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-060045-
Kiska to Attu-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Bering side, seas 19 ft building to 25 ft in
the afternoon...Pacific side, seas 30 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-060045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-060045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-060045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-060045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 AM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 40 kt. Seas in
ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge remains stationed over the eastern Bering and
Southwest across into Southcentral. An upper level trough across
the western Aleutians and far western Bering is rotating around an
upper level low near the Kamchatka Peninsula.

At the surface, an area of weakening low pressure remains south of
Prince William Sound. The wintry mix of precipitation across
Southcentral seems to have completely tapered off, with a showery
pattern remaining across the northern Gulf. Low stratus and fog
can be seen across some of the coastal locations in the southwest
and the Kuskokwim Delta.

Small craft winds and waves can be seen along the eastern Bering
and Aleutians as the front continues towards the southwest coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in fairly good agreement on synoptic features
through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect MVFR conditions to continue this morning with a low
stratus deck with VFR conditions resuming this evening. Winds
will remain light and out of the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Zonal flow aloft is over Southcentral and today into tonight will
be the break between systems. Even though the previous system is
well into Canada, lingering stratus remains over much of Cook
Inlet and the Mat-Su Valley regions as well as the Copper River
Basin. One of the big forecast questions today is whether this
stratus dissipates or hangs tough over the area. For the morning
forecast, going with it clearing out later today due to the 12Z
sounding showing some drying occurring throughout the atmosphere,
numerical models all indicating this, and it being a full day
since the precipitation moved out of the area. Typically this
stratus in zonal flow does not last much more than a day. In spite
of all these factors, the concern that it may not clear out comes
from the fact that it has not cleared out in southwest Alaska
yet, and there is not any significant clearing in the western
Cook Inlet or Susitna Valley areas.

An upper level wave will move into Southcentral Alaska Friday and
bring a chance for some light snowfall as it moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low stratus and fog continues to dominate areas across Southwest
this morning. However, as the axis of the upper level ridge moves
into the area later this morning and into the afternoon hours, any
fog and low stratus may lift. Some high clouds are moving in from
the frontal system out in the Bering that might prevent the sky
from totally clearing out especially across the Yukon-Kuskokwim
Delta. The Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay have the best
chances of seeing sunshine at some point today.

Any high clouds this afternoon across the area will begin to
lower and thicken as the frontal system and upper level shortwave
approach Southwest. There are two main upper level shortwaves that
are expected to move through Southwest with the first being during
the early evening (~6 pm). This first wave is very subtle but it
may be enough to bring a flurry to some coastal areas of the YK-
Delta during the early evening hours. The more potent upper level
shortwave/upper trough approaches during the late evening which
will bring snow and blowing snow to the coastal areas as winds
are expected to be southeasterly between 25 to 30 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for the YK Delta Coast for blowing snow and visibility reduced to
one half mile from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday. As the system
tracks inland, snow will overspread the inland areas of Southwest
with a general 0.5 to 2 inches for Bristol Bay and the Middle
Kuskokwim Valley. Highest amounts are expected along the YK Delta
Coast where up to 5 inches are expected. All activity will largely
wane from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening,
though, some lingering light snow shower activity may still be
around into early Saturday.

For the remainder of the forecast time period (Saturday into
Saturday night), another upper level ridge is expected to move
into the region bringing a return to some sunshine and colder
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A gale force frontal system continues moving across the eastern
Bering Sea this morning. This system will bring widespread
precipitation to the Pribilofs and the central and eastern
Aleutians through this evening. A mix of rain and snow is expected
for these areas before the deeper cold air moves back in Thursday
night for Dutch Harbor and then Friday morning for Cold Bay and
the Sand Point area. The front continues eastward and along the
AKPEN Friday morning while weakening.

Behind this system, an upper level ridge is expected to dominate
much of the central and eastern Bering. This will largely keep
much of the central and eastern Aleutians quiet as well as the
Pribilofs for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

A storm force system is expected to affect the western Aleutian
Island Chain beginning Friday afternoon with the front moving
slowly east reaching the Pribilofs and central to eastern
Aleutians Saturday evening/night. Expect widespread precipitation,
of rain and snow though mostly rain as this system will bring a
fair amount of warm air north with it. Also, strong winds and high
waves (20-30 ft) with 70 mph gusts are expected in Shemya. Right
now, do not expect hurricane force gusts for this area.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Southeast Gulf Sunday. Model
tracks differ slightly, but confidence is good through Monday.
Widespread westerly gale force winds and waves with high end gale
force gusts over the Gulf Saturday. These will diminish to small
craft winds Sunday, and continue weakening for Monday. Wave
heights to 21 feet Saturday move across the Gulf, subsiding to 10
feet Sunday. They continue to lay down as high pressure moves
into the Gulf through Monday.

Bering Sea: Eastern Bering high pressure yields as the central
Bering front swings into the northern Bering for Monday. The low
with this front swings along the western Bering before retreating
into the Russian far east. Model development is mixed, but
confidence is improving through Monday. Widespread southeast gale
force winds and waves with high end gale force gusts diminish
over the central Bering Sunday. Easterly small craft winds
continue over the Bering through Monday. Wave heights to 24 feet
over the western Bering and the Pacific side of the Aleutians
through Sunday, subsiding. Waves to 20 feet over the Bering
through the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term pattern features an amplified upper level ridge
over the Gulf and southern mainland, while upstream, a deep upper
level low will drop southward from Siberia over the western
Bering. By Monday, the pattern shifts slightly as the ridge moves
eastward and becomes broadened across the Aleutian Chain. As
another low arrives over the western Bering, the ridge becomes
highly amplified once again by Tuesday. This will result in a
pattern change over the Bering with much more warm southerly flow
expected for Tuesday, while for the mainland, a much colder Arctic
airmass remains in place. By Wednesday, the strong ridge continues
to build within close proximity of a deepening upper level low
over the mainland. This, combined with a strong temperature
gradient will likely increase winds across the southwest coast of
Alaska. This setup also results in a somewhat regressive pattern,
as several upper level waves will steer systems from east to west
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storms: 177 178.
         Gales: 130 131 165 170 171 172 175 176 180 181 185 411 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray: 139 160 180 181 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CRK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/KO