Small Craft Advisory 880, NWS Anchorage, AK

720 
FZAK51 PAFC 050003
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051300-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 mb low in Bristol Bay enters Shelikof Strait at 991 mb 
tonight, then moves to 125 nm east of Kodiak City at 996 mb Fri 
afternoon. A trough develops along the north Gulf coast Fri through 
Sat.

$$

PKZ119-051300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051300-
Resurrection Bay-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051300-
Prince William Sound-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051300-
Port Valdez-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051300-
Valdez Narrows-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051300-
Valdez Arm-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051300-
Passage Canal-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up
to 25 kt near Whitter in the morning. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas  6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051300-
Barren Islands East-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051300-
Chiniak Bay-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051300-
Marmot Bay-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051300-
Shelikof Strait-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051300-
Kachemak Bay-
403 PM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The hemispheric flow has changed due to weakening and shifting
eastward of the strong blocking high over Canada. A high amplitude
trough is now centered over the central to eastern Bering Sea
southward into the North Pacific. A vertically stacked low is
embedded within the trough along the north side of the Alaska
Peninsula, drifting northward across Bristol Bay. A leading
short-wave and occluded front are lifting northward across the
Bristol Bay area, producing a narrow band of precipitation. The
air mass sitting to the north is quite cold, so precipitation is
falling as snow as it spreads northward. More significant weather
can be found on the back side of the low as a series of short-
waves dropping southward across the Bering Sea advect arctic
air southward across the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula. This is leading to banded snow showers and strong
gusty northwesterly winds, especially along the Alaska Peninsula
where gusts have reached 45 to 55 mph in Cold Bay and King Cove.

Meanwhile, a short-wave trough and surface low pushed onshore
of Southcentral this morning. Most of the precipitation remains
along the coast, though some spotty light precipitation has
tracked inland. The air mass is over Southcentral remains warm,
with rain at and near sea level. The environment also remains
quiet moist, so patchy fog and stratus can be found across
Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show the same general evolution of the pattern
over the next three days. However, there are some key differences
with position of a negatively tilted trough and stationary surface
front over the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral tonight through
Thursday. Expect a narrow band of precipitation extending from
the central Gulf northwestward to Southcentral. The position of
this axis of precipitation varies from model to model, with some
centering it over the Kenai Peninsula while others are farther
north and east and bring precipitation into Anchorage and portions
of the Mat-Su. The root cause of these differences seems to be
with the track of both upper level waves and surface waves moving
along the front which affect the exact orientation of the
precipitation band. For now, based on all the solutions,
precipitation seems most likely across the Kenai Peninsula. The
other challenge will be precipitation-type, as cold air advects
northward across the southern to western Kenai Peninsula. If the
band of heavier precipitation sets up there, then there could be
snow accumulation. If precipitation remains lighter, it could lead
to little or no snow accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The terminal forecast remains challenging, and forecast
confidence is low. It does appear favorable for gusty southeast
winds to move in sometime this afternoon or evening as the
remnants of a surface low continue inland across Southcentral and
as an upper level short-wave passes overhead. If if winds do not
gust at the terminal, think it will be enough low level wind to
clear out any remnant fog and low clouds from the area. A series
of short-waves passing through overnight favors light rain and
lower ceilings, most likely dropping to MVFR. Expect a narrow
band of rain to continue through the day, but not sure where it
will set up. If it is near the terminal, would expect even lower
conditions to develop. If the band shifts southward over the
Kenai, then would expect improving conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday afternoon)...

A stream of southerly moisture ahead of a vertically stacked low
over Bristol Bay will develop across the Kenai Peninsula this
evening. Although there remains some uncertainty as to where the
highest precipitation will occur, light snow remains likely for
that region early Thursday morning aided by colder air building in
aloft. While surface temperatures will be close to the freezing
level, the Anchorage area should see all rain, although mixed
precipitation will be possible at higher elevations. In any case,
no accumulation is expected. Rain will continue to persist near
Prince William Sound. Fog remains possible around Cook Inlet
through Thursday morning.

Any remaining scattered showers will taper off by Thursday evening
and a more benign pattern will develop into the weekend. Most
areas will remain dry through Saturday, however temperatures will
fall below average, with highs near 30 across Southcentral and in
the 20s farther east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Saturday)...

A low pressure system south of Dillingham has pushed it's front
into Bristol Bay today. This front will move across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley this evening and then across the Kilbuck and
Kuskokwim mountains tonight and into the Kuskokwim Delta Thursday
morning spreading light snow with accumulations up to 2 inches.
Snow showers will develop over the next 24 to 36 hours in bands
around the low and bring light snowfall from King Salmon to
Dillingham and towards Togiak with another one to three inches of
snow expected where the most persistent bands set up. This low
will finally move inland by Thursday night and Friday morning and
weaken as it crosses over into the western Gulf. However, with
the upper level trough still sitting over the area occasional snow
showers are possible Friday and Saturday, with only minor
accumulations expected. Otherwise colder air will flow into the
area through Saturday lowering temperatures each day.

For the AKPen, a cold, northerly flow in the wake of the
low/trough will keep conditions unstable, allowing for snow
showers to persist through Saturday. A few inches of snow are
possible over the next couple of days, especially in areas where
snow showers train over the same location for extended periods of
time. Blustery winds may also reduce visibility at times in
the heavier snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper trough across the northern and eastern Bering will slowly
move east through Saturday with cold northwesterly flow keeping
snow showers across much of the region. Otherwise the low near
Bristol Bay combined with cold air advection will produce high end
Gales across the eastern Aleutians and AKPen through Friday with
storm force gusts expected, especially through the gaps and
passes through Thursday. Winds will decrease on Saturday to mainly
small crafts with some gale force gusts. Another low pressure
will approach the western Aleutians Friday night and Saturday with
small craft winds and areas of rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Aleutians/Bering...Considerable uncertainty through the forecast
period. A North Pacific low and its front moves over the Western
and Central Aleutians by Monday. Gusty Easterly winds increase and
spread over the Central Aleutians and Bering for Monday. Seas
building to 20 feet along the Pacific side of the Western and
Central Aleutians by Monday.

Gulf of Alaska... A low tracks over the Western Gulf into the
North Pacific by Monday. Gusty winds with areas of gales along the
rear flank of the low extends from the Alaska Peninsula into the
North Pacific, diminishing Monday. Seas 10 feet or less. A
Southeast Gulf low weakens as it moves along the North Gulf Coast
to Kodiak Island by Monday. A gale force barrier jet pushes along
the North Gulf Coast, diminishing Monday. Seas to 13 feet,
subsiding near Kodiak Island Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The upper level flow is quite complex during the extended period,
making it difficult to nail down the details of the weather with
any confidence. However, there is general agreement in large scale
features and overall evolution of the pattern to make some broad
conclusions. Beginning with the Sunday-Monday time frame, a large
low gyre will be centered over the Gulf, with short-waves rotating
across southern Alaska. None of these waves looks particularly
strong, so chances are most areas will be dry. A ridge will be
positioned to the west over the central to eastern Bering Sea.
The most active weather will be over the western Bering and
Aleutians as a series of short-waves dog southward out of eastern
Russia. This will lead to cyclogenesis, with multiple storms
likely transiting the region. It's impossible at this point to
determine the track and depth of these lows, but based on forcing
and time of year, gale force winds are likely.

The forecast becomes a bit more fuzzy as we head through Tuesday
and Wednesday. The low gyre will fall apart as various energy
heads in different directions. The western Bering trough looks
like it will undercut the Bering ridge, tracking across the North
Pacific and perhaps interacting with the remnant trough over the
Gulf. With that general flow in mind, would expect mostly dry
conditions for southern Alaska and quieter conditions out across
the western Bering/Aleutians. There is some potential for
development of a Gulf storm mid week (and beyond) depending on
the exact placement and interaction of the aforementioned
features.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 138 150 155 165-172 179-185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/SEB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

AKZ181-050100-
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
346 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY...

Snow showers and gusty northwesterly winds at 35 to 50 mph are
expected to persist across the Alaska Peninsula through Friday as
an area of low pressure over Bristol Bay slowly drifts across the
Alaska Peninsula to Kodiak Island. Snow showers could be heavy at
times with several inches of accumulation possible in persistent
snow bands. Visibilities could also be reduced to less than one
mile at times due to the combination of snow and gusty winds.
Locations from False Pass to Port Heiden may be impacted by these
adverse conditions.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/anchorage.