Small Craft Advisory 859, NWS Anchorage, AK

208 
FZAK51 PAFC 291156
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-300045-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1006 mb low 25 nm Northwest of Montague Island dissipates Fri 
afternoon. A 972 mb low 400 nm Southwest of Akhiok moves to 50 nm
West of Akhiok at 977 mb for Sat evening and then moves into 
Bristol Bay by Sun morning. Its front extends from the Alaska 
Peninsula into the Western Gulf and moves into the northern Gulf 
through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-300045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt early becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-300045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt early becoming E 40 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 
9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-300045-
Resurrection Bay-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming S 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-300045-
Prince William Sound-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft
in the evening building to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-300045-
Port Valdez-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-300045-
Valdez Narrows-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt early increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-300045-
Valdez Arm-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming E 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-300045-
Passage Canal-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-300045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-300045-
Barren Islands East-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-300045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-300045-
Chiniak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-300045-
Marmot Bay-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ138-300045-
Shelikof Strait-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-300045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-300045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-300045-
Kachemak Bay-
356 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft in the outer bay. Seas 5 ft in
the inner bay. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft in the outer bay. Seas 5 ft in
the inner bay. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

620 
FZAK51 PAFC 300003
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301300-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 mb low 175 nm south of Chignik moves to 45 nm south of 
Sitkinak at 995 mb by Sun afternoon. Its front pushes into
Southcentral Alaska for Sun afternoon. Strong winds continue over  
most of the Gulf through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-301300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 
17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E 25 kt in the evening becoming SE 40 kt. Seas 15 ft 
building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301300-
Resurrection Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TONIGHT...North wind to 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
building to 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301300-
Prince William Sound-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 
4 ft in the evening building to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301300-
Port Valdez-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301300-
Valdez Narrows-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301300-
Valdez Arm-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming E 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301300-
Passage Canal-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301300-
Barren Islands East-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft subsiding to 24 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301300-
Chiniak Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301300-
Marmot Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301300-
Shelikof Strait-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  and snow.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-301300-
Kachemak Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming SE 35 kt. Seas 
5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Latest infrared satellite imagery reveals an upper low persisting
over the Bering this morning and centered just east of the
Pribilofs. An occluded front extends eastward from the low into
interior Alaska and meets a triple point low currently over the
Kenai Peninsula. Light snow is falling across the Kuskokwim Delta
in the vicinity or just southeast of Bethel along the front. Over
the triple point low cloud cover is expanding in coverage with
additional light snow occurring from Homer to Iliamna. A cold air
mass lingers over much of Southwest with 850 mb temperatures
ranging from -8 to -10 degrees Celsius while Southcentral 850 mb
temperatures are closer to -6 degrees Celsius currently. A warm
front is lifting northward toward Prince William Sound with
isolated to scattered showers. Behind the warm front is a cold
front which extends southward into the southern gulf. The next big
weather maker is deepening in strength to the south of Amchitka
Island. It is producing overcast skies and lowered ceilings across
the Aleutians this morning. As this low continues to strengthen
and shift east it will likely bring a wintry mix to parts of
Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Delta Friday into the weekend,
as well as heavy rains and mountain snow to the Kenai Peninsula,
and high winds across the Turnagain Arm, including Portage Pass
and the town of Whittier.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are handling synoptic features well this morning over
the Bering and over the Gulf of Alaska. Good model agreement
continues and depicts a low over the Bering and a low over the
Gulf of Alaska gradually merging over interior Alaska through 24
hours. Beyond 24 hours models continue to show good agreement with
a third low undergoing significant amplification south of the
Aleutians on Friday and presenting an atmospheric river into the
Kenai Peninsula for a 12 to 24 hour period Friday night into
Saturday. Models diverge beyond 48 hours but do suggest southerly
flow over the Kenai Peninsula will become southeast and then
easterly as an amplified low and its trough axis pivot
counterclockwise Saturday morning. The evolution of this low over
the next couple of days will ultimately determine just how much
rain areas like Seward receive into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will persist with VFR conditions early this
morning lowering to MVFR as light snow moves across the terminal.
The light snow is expected to linger through around noon Thursday
before tapering off. VFR ceilings and light southerly winds are
expected through Thursday afternoon and evening; however, ceilings
should remain at or below 5,000 ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Sunday Morning)...

A weak shortwave and associated surface low near Homer this
morning will lift northeast today. As it does, expect light snow
from Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl east toward Prince William
Sound. The snow will be light, with around an inch expected for
places like Anchorage and Kenai. A couple of inches are possible
for higher elevations such as Turnagain and Thompson Passes and
across the Portage Valley. As the shortwave lifts to the interior
Friday, weather across Southcentral will turn relatively quiet,
with the exception of some lingering snow showers across the
mountains.

The pattern then turns more amplified and more active beginning
late Friday, continuing through the weekend. A deepening upper-
level trough will dive well south of the AKPen Friday morning as
the upper-level jet becomes meridional. Ahead of the trough, deep
southerly flow will transport tropical moisture northward into
Southcentral in the form of an atmospheric river. A colder airmass
in place ahead of the frontal system lifting north will allow for
some snow initially, especially away from the coast and at
elevation. However, as the warmer air advects from the south and
the airmass across coastal Southcentral moderates, snow levels
will quickly climb, reaching over 3,000 feet by Saturday morning.

The aforementioned frontal system will reach Kodiak Island first,
with rain and gusty southerly winds developing by Friday morning.
The atmospheric river will then migrate to the Kenai Peninsula by
Fri afternoon, where copious moisture will wring out over the
mountains. Seward could see 2 to 4 inches of rain by late Saturday
with QPF amounts nearly doubled in the surrounding mountains.
While the forecasted winds aloft have shifted from due south to
southeasterly, allowing for slightly less rainfall amounts in
Seward, the forecasted 2 to 4 inches will fall in a short enough
period of time to bring the potential for localized flooding.
Similar rainfall totals are possible in Kodiak City through Sunday
as the AR realigns at Kodiak Island by Sunday.

Farther north, the primary weather threat will be high winds, both
at elevation and trough favored gaps. As the leading front moves
toward the Southcentral coast, the synoptic winds will turn east-
southeasterly, aligning with gaps such as Turnagain Arm. Given the
strength of this system, gusts above hurricane force are likely
to develop, especially along Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley, and
the higher elevations of the Anchorage Hillside. A High Wind
Watches remains in effect for these locations from Friday evening
through Sunday morning. Other threats include the potential for
significant amounts of snow across the western Susitna Valley,
some snowfall and gusty winds across the Copper River Basin, and
temperatures warming well into the 40s by Saturday. Stay tuned for
additional products and updated forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Today
through Saturday morning)...

A weak low pressure system will move across the area today with a
few lingering areas of very light snow and snow showers mainly
over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley with little or no snow
accumulations expected. This evening through early Friday the area
will see a brief break in the weather with mostly clear skies and
cold temperatures with lows Friday morning in the teens and low
20s across the area. However, by Friday afternoon a strong low
pressure system develops south of the AKPEN. This will draw
moisture rapidly across the area with a frontal system developing
across Bristol Bay. Strong upper level forcing is expected as a
favorable area of the upper level jet stream moves across the area
creating lift. This will allow snow to develop across the area
Friday afternoon through Saturday. Warm air will develop from
downsloping winds off the western Alaskan Range causing the snow
to change to a mix of freezing rain and rain Friday night into
Saturday morning across Bristol Bay. It will change over to rain
sometime Friday night around King Salmon and Iliamna while
Dillingham and north towards New Stuyahok and Koliganek the snow
will change to freezing rain and/or rain by Saturday morning
through around midday Saturday. Currently 4 to 8 inches of snow is
likely from Dillingham north to Koliganek. While King Salmon and
Iliamna will see 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain.
Areas that get freezing rain should be short lived and relatively
light in nature with minimal impacts. Expect 6 to 10 inches of
snow across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley beginning Friday night and
possibly changing over to rain and/or freezing rain by Saturday
afternoon or evening. Any freezing rain in this area should be
short lived with only minor accumulations with minimal impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3...Tonight
through Fri afternoon)...

A gale force low is currently moving just south of the western
Aleutians. This low will move across the Aleutian chain today with
gale force winds from the Island and southward with areas of
moderate rain. The rest of the Bering will be relatively quiet
today with cool northerly flow with a few rain and snow showers
with small craft winds or less. By Friday morning storm force
winds will develop south of the AKPEN as the low deepens south of
the AKPEN on Friday. This will bring rain to the southern AKPEN
and rain and snow to northern parts of the AKPEN with a couple of
inches of snow accumulations Friday and Saturday. Storm force
winds will continue through Friday night south of the AKPEN.
Otherwise the central and western Bering and Aleutians will see
relatively quiet weather with light winds Friday afternoon though
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering/Aleutians...
Strong gales and seas up to 15 ft over eastern Bering will
continue until Sat night. The next emerging low over the southern
Bering Sun afternoon could potentially elevate seas and winds to
gales near Pribilof Islands Sun night into early Mon morning.
Elsewhere, moderate seas and small crafts will continue
sporadically across the forecast area. For this reason, forecast
confidence is above average.

Gulf of Alaska...
A nearly stationary complex North Pacific low and its associated
front are responsible for persistent gales and long period swells
of 20 to 25 ft across the Gulf through at least early Sun morning.
As seas and winds diminish Sun morning, the potential for gales to
return is favorable especially around the Barren Islands and east
of Kodiak Island in response to the next North Pacific low
trekking toward the Gulf Sun afternoon. The latter system will
again bring another strong episode of long period swells up to 22
ft on Monday especially over the central Gulf. For other parts of
the Gulf during most of the forecast period, small craft
conditions will continue into early next week. Overall, forecast
confidence remains above average.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

GFS and ECM differ quite a bit on the placement of the expected
lows transiting through the Bering and Gulf of Alaska. However,
solutions agreed to highlight strong winds and potentially heavy
rain across the Gulf and Prince William Sound, and over the
Aleutian Chain and Southwest Coast. Clearly, a firm ridge over the
State will maintain a quiet forecast for mostly inland portions of
Southcentral and Southwest. A frontal system over the eastern Gulf
will bring strong winds and rain across Prince William Sound and
eastern Kenai Peninsula starting Mon afternoon until late Mon
night. Meanwhile, strong winds and rain from a North Pacific low
will enter the central Aleutians beginning Mon afternoon. A
developing front associated with the latter system will then shift
through the eastern Bering into the Southwest Coast by early Tue
morning, leading to increased rain and stronger winds along the
gaps and passes. Both systems over the Bering and Gulf will bring
a lot of tropical moisture and warm temperatures days ahead.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 101 125.
MARINE...Storm Warning 155
	     Gale Warning 120 130-132 136-138 150 160 165 170-174 176
					  177 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO