Small Craft Advisory 819, NWS Anchorage, AK

602 
FZAK52 PAFC 142358
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151315-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

An elongated 998 mb low 50 nm south of Sand Point exits into the 
North Pacific tonight. A 967 mb low 295 nm northwest of Shemya 
Fri night moves to 240 nm north of Kiska at 970 mb Sat afternoon. The
associated front moves into the Western Aleutians Thu night and 
reaches the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151315-
Bristol Bay-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except NW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151315-
Unalaska Bay-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151315-
Adak to Kiska-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151315-
Kiska to Attu-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 PM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 15 kt 
becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming SE
35 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 40 kt.
Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 PM AKDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Weak synoptic flow continues to remain over much of Southern
Alaska as it sits under a broad upper-level longwave trough. The
main jet stream is moving from Eastern Russia across the southern
Bering Sea and across the North Pacific towards western North
America. This is influencing storm tracks to remain south of the
mainland, but every so often some pieces of energy work their way
toward the Southern Mainland. Embedded within the upper-level
trough are multiple waves of upper level energy moving westward
and producing a light rain/snow mix over Bristol Bay in places
like King Salmon, Iliamna, and Koliganek. Radar is also showing
returns over the Kuskokwim Delta with snow, Cook Inlet with rain,
and Prince William Sound with rain this afternoon. However, much
of Southcentral remains quiet and dry this afternoon with
satellite showing cloud decks averaging around 6000 ft.

The Bering is mainly under the influence of northeasterly flow
due to the trough sitting over the mainland. This northerly flow
is bringing cold arctic air over the relatively warm water surface
and is creating unstable conditions over the Bering. As a result,
lighting is being shown on radar north of Attu. Cold air
advection is also producing gusty conditions across the eastern
Bering this afternoon with reports reaching up to 30 kts in places
like Cold Bay, St. Paul Island, and Port Heiden.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models are in good agreement with the synoptic scale
features through Day 3. However, models are having trouble keying
in on how different pieces of energy will move around the base of
the trough over Southern Alaska. Timing and location of
precipitation will be a forecast challenge as well as the
precipitation type as the models are showing a general trend of a
trough lifting northward into Southcentral for Wednesday night
through Thursday night/Friday. Lastly, the low over the Bering
that is moving southeastward across the southern Bering is a
concern. Models agree that this low will dig south and bring with
it cold arctic air, however, models are disagreeing with how
strong this low will track. The NAM is showing a much colder and
stronger solution than the other models (GFS/EC/Canadian). This is
important to consider because it will affect how strong the winds
will become across the Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Beginning
around 14/08Z, expecting some light rain to move into the
terminal, though with conditions still mainly VFR. It is around
14/12z that model guidance begins to lower ceilings at the
terminal to MVFR along with a rain/snow mix. Some guidance is even
hinting at IFR conditions but this was left out for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southcentral is expecting another round of unsettled weather.
There is a shortwave of interest. The NAM and the Canadian models take
this feature over the Kenai Peninsula and the northern Gulf Of
Alaska on Thursday. However, the GFS takes this shortwave up Cook
Inlet on Thursday. The difference in the track is going to impact
the sensible weather at Anchorage. The current thinking is that
this event will start out as a rain/snow mix tonight at the lower
elevations. Tomorrow the Ted Stevens Intl Airport will get a trace
to 1/2 inch of snow while Hillside could get 2-6 inches of new
snow and higher elevations in the Chugach could get over 10 inches
of fresh snow. The mountains along the Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound will also get a fresh blanket of snow. The cyclonic
flow is going to linger over Prince William Sound and the Gulf
through Friday. A second system will cross the Alaska Peninsula
late Thursday and move just south of Kodiak and then towards SE
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A broad upper level trough is in place over the state, allowing
for several upper level waves to propagate over Southwest.
Showery conditions will continue through the evening hours tonight
across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and interior areas of Bristol
Bay. Ample cold air over the northern Bering has worked its way in
and allowed for snow showers over the Kuskokwim Mountains and
also the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, while the rest of the
precipitation across Southwest has been falling as rain or
rain/snow mix. By Thursday, flow will become more northerly as the
synoptic pattern amplifies. This will introduce the potential for
snow along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. At this time, confidence
remains low as the bulk of precipitation is positioned just
offshore, though the track of this feature may shift. Regardless,
there is potential for periods of gusty northerly winds and snow
showers across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast tomorrow. By Friday,
conditions should improve across Southwest as a weakening
shortwave trough departs to the east and an upper level ridge
arrives from the west. Colder northerly flow is expected to
persist until the next front arrives late Friday into early
Saturday. This next system will bring a swath of warmer southerly
flow and precipitation. One forecast challenge for the weekend
timeframe may be determining precipitation type as ample cold air
close to the surface may hang on a while longer while warmer air
overrides in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Nonetheless, expect
Saturday to be a shift in the pattern as the front associated
with this next Bering low lifts onshore across Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

Widespread showers will continue over the Bering through the
evening as colder northwesterly flow continues to work its way
southward. Impressively, a developing cold-core low over the far
western Bering has produced several lightning strikes north of
Shemya. As this feature tracks southeastward and arrives over the
central Aleutians for Thursday, there is potential for additional
strikes to occur over the southern Bering waters and central
Aleutian Chain. As the synoptic pattern gradually becomes more
amplified through late Thursday, cold northerly flow will persist
over the eastern Bering while an upper level ridge will build
over the western Bering. The eastern Aleutians and southern
Alaska Peninsula can expect rain/snow showers through Friday
morning, especially with upsloping along the mountains in
northerly flow. Then all attention shifts west to an inbound low
Friday morning. This next system will bring gusty southerly winds
and rain to the western and central Aleutians through Friday. By
Saturday, this low center will track into the central Bering,
keeping active weather over the area for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
Gulf of Alaska: A weakening low moves across the Southern Gulf
towards the Southeast Panhandle on Saturday. A Bering low crosses
the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. Winds along the North Gulf Coast
are expected to reach gale force by Sunday evening and persist
through Monday. Wave heights will likely remain below 20 ft
through Monday.

Bering Sea: A Bering low exits into the Southern Gulf by Sunday.
As the front off a second low enters the western Bering by
Saturday and pushes across the Bering Sea through Sunday afternoon
before extending into the Gulf. Anticipate gale force winds and
waves greater than 20 ft through Sunday night. Northerly winds on
the back side of the low may produce gusty conditions through the
gaps and passes along the Southern AKPen and Eastern Aleutians. A
third system enters the north-western Bering by Monday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Models are showing rather good agreement in the extended range for
a series of lows tracking across the Bering towards the Gulf early
next week. Remnants of a Bering low moving into the Southern Gulf
on Sunday and track towards the Southeast Panhandle. A second low
in the western Bering tracks eastward towards the Southern Alaska
Peninsula by Sunday night. Its front approaches the Southwest
coast Sunday afternoon and will bring moderate precipitation to
the Southern AKPen and along the coastal areas. Additionally,
increasingly gusty winds and heavy precipitation are anticipated
to track along the Aleutians Islands with the front. Cloudy skies
will persist along the rest of the Southwest Mainland into early
next week, with precipitation possible along the upslope regions
of the mountain ranges. How far inland the precipitation reaches
will be dependent on where exactly the low tracks. Should it stay
far enough south, it will be less likely the moisture feed will
make it far enough to produce any significant rain or snowfall
across the Southern Mainland. As the low advances into the Gulf,
winds may become gusty along the North Gulf Coast with the
possibility of heavy precipitation along the Southcentral Coastal
areas. Continued cloudy skies across the Southcentral Mainland and
along the Gulf will likely result in below average temperatures.
A third system enters the northwestern Bering by Monday and looks
to carry similar conditions as the prior, with gusty winds and
moderate to heavy precipitation along the Aleutian Chain. This
system elongates, eventually merging with the Gulf low to create a
broad longwave trough pattern stretching across the Southern
Mainland and Southeast Panhandle as well as the Gulf of Alaska and
the Bering sea. Northerly flow across the Bering, with enough
cold air advection, at the base of the trough will produce
increasingly gusty gap winds Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 170 172 174 176 177.
		 Storm 173 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM