Gale Warning 619, NWS Anchorage, AK

742 
FZAK62 PAFC 151224
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160100-
424 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A complex 990 mb low at 54N 164E moves to 57N 171E at 968 mb Fri
night. The low continues to 57N 169W at 975 mb Sat night. Its
associated strong front moves from the western Bering to the 
eastern Bering Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
424 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
424 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt early becoming SW 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to
17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
424 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
424 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

666 
FZAK62 PAFC 152352
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161300-
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A complex 979 mb low at 54N 168E moves across the Bering through Sun
afternoon. Its associated strong front moves from the western Bering
to the eastern Bering Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

087 
FZAK62 PAFC 161201
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170115-
401 AM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Multiple lows associated with a strong front builds through the 
Bering into Sun afternoon. A 973 mb low emerges near 58N 180 Sat 
morning tracks to 57N 178W at 971 mb Sat night, then weakens. A 
966 mb low at 55N 171E moves to 54N 171W at 973 mb Sat night, 
then crosses the eastern Bering to 55N 162W at 974 mb Sun morning. 
Another low 969 mb develops near 60N 173W Sat night moves to 59N 
163W at 974 mb Sun morning, then weakens.

$$

PKZ411-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
401 AM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
401 AM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
401 AM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
401 AM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

030 
FZAK62 PAFC 162303
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
303 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171430-
303 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 59N 180W this afternoon will move into the Gulf
Sunday afternoon. A front will move across the western and central
Bering Sea Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
303 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
303 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
303 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas
11 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
303 PM AKDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

051 
FZAK62 PAFC 171146
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180130-
346 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 58N 161W enters the western Gulf Sun afternoon. A
977 mb Northwest Pacific low at 52N 150E drifts to 62N 180 at 975
mb by Tue morning. Its associated front builds across the Bering 
through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 26 ft subsiding to 13 to 21 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 13 to
19 ft subsiding to 10 to 13 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 9 to
13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 AM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

499 
FZAK62 PAFC 172204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
204 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181300-
204 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon will rapidly
move eastward into the Gulf tonight. A front will gradually move 
through the Bering Sea this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. A
977 mb low associated with this front will move to 63N 174W 
Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
204 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
204 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
204 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
13 to 19 ft subsiding to 10 to 13 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 9 to
13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
204 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

490 
FZAK62 PAFC 181118
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190115-
318 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A broad front moves across the Bering through Tuesday night. A 
973 mb low associated with the front moves to 62N 176W at 973 mb 
Tue morning, then to 62N 171W at 975 mb by Tue night.

$$

PKZ411-190115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
318 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
318 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
318 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
318 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.TODAY...N wind up to 20 kt early becoming SW 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 19 ft.  and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

923 
FZAK62 PAFC 182346
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191300-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb low at 61N 175E this afternoon will move to 63N 174W at
979 mb Tuesday afternoon. The low then remains nearly stationary
and weakens to 992 mb Wednesday afternoon. A second 976 mb North
Pacific low will move to 52N 174E Wednesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

737 
FZAK62 PAFC 191033
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200115-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb low near 62N 175W drifts to 67N 173W at 983 mb early Thu
morning. A second 978 mb Northwest Pacific treks toward the western
Aleutians at 50N 171E Wed afternoon. The strengthening low then 
advances across the central Bering to 55N 175W at 956 mb early Thu
morning.

$$

PKZ411-200115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
233 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

142 
FZAK62 PAFC 200001
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201415-
401 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 61N 169W this afternoon will move over the Bering
Strait at 990 mb Wednesday afternoon. The low then dissipates by
Thursday afternoon. A second 973 mb low at 51N 172E Wednesday
afternoon will move to 57N 172W at 945 mb Thursday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
401 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 20 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain with snow showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
401 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
401 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
401 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 to 50 kt except W 40 to 55 kt S of 56N. 
Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

028 
FZAK62 PAFC 201159
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210215-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low near 62N 168W moves to the Bering Strait at 988 mb
Wed night. The low then continues further north to the Chukchi 
Sea through Thu night. A strengthening 976 mb low at 51N 172E Wed 
afternoon moves through the Bering to 56N 165W at 947 mb early Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt increasing to 45 to 60 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 20 ft building to 22 to 33 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Looking at the upper levels, we see broad troughing over southern
Alaska. Embedded in this broad trough is a weak upper level low
currently located over the Barren Islands region. To the east of
this, a weak surface low was seen on nighttime microphysics
imagery this morning showing weak but cyclonic circulation south
of Seward. While there is an upper level low present, multiple
pieces of weak upper level energy are rotating around the main
upper level low resulting in light precipitation for the Prince
William Sound area as well as the Kenai Peninsula. Kenai,
Soldotna, Seward, Cordova, Whittier, and Homer were all reporting
light rain as of this writing. This will be the system that is
expected to bring light precipitation (mostly in the form of light
snow) to the Anchorage Bowl today and due to the weak synoptic
scale forcing present (nothing to really push the system out of
the area) will linger through Friday. See the Southcentral portion
of the AFD for further details on the forecast. Gulkana was also
reporting light snow this morning as a rather weak upper level
shortwave is moving through the Copper River Basin. Also, for the
12z ob at NWS Anchorage, the snowflakes were flying resulting in a
trace of snow accumulation for today so far. Also, webcams around
Anchorage were showing the snowflakes falling. This is actually
good news also as the official climate station for Anchorage is
already showing a -1.8" deficit for snow so far this season.

Looking at the 12z Anchorage sounding as well this morning, we see
a wet bulb zero height of 13 feet, hence, one of the reasons for
seeing snowflakes all the way to sea level this morning.

Lastly, an elongated low pressure system both at the surface and
the upper levels is currently moving southeastward across the
Bering Sea. This system was bringing gale force winds to the
western and central Bering this morning. Port Heiden, Pilot Point,
and Nelson Lagoon were all still gusting this morning as high as
25 kts as northwesterly flow continues across the area amid a
tight pressure gradient still present for this area. Most of
Southwest remains quiet this morning with just a few areas
reporting low stratus such as Bethel and Aniak, though, Aniak has
been reporting light snow for the past several hours with
temperatures sitting right at 32 degrees. Lastly, a few lightning
strikes were also detected overnight across the south-central
Bering with the aforementioned storm system.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale
features out through Day 3. Model guidance has come into better
agreement on the weak upper level low feature that is basically
expected to meander about the Cook Inlet region through Friday
night. However, even though the overall big picture is
straightforward to expect unsettled conditions through Friday, the
differences still arise from all the individual pieces of energy
that will rotate around the main upper level low. The strength of
these individual features most likely will play role in
precipitation intensity and type as well as snowfall amounts for
any one area. Therefore, this was the main focus this forecast
package for Southcentral.

For the Bering Sea, model guidance has since backed off on any
storm force winds across the southern Bering Sea for this morning,
therefore, these were removed from the forecast package. This was
mainly due to guidance showing this low remaining more elongated
with more stretched out energy (weaker) rather than a more
consolidated piece of energy where energy would be more focused
(stronger). Attention then turns to the next frontal system that
is expected to move into the Western Aleutians and western Bering
on Friday which model guidance is actually in very good agreement
on. Main focus will be to determine where the storm force winds
will be around the low as well as how cold and how much
precipitation makes it onshore the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Expecting mainly VFR conditions with ceilings mostly
between 3100 ft and 5000 ft through 14/22-23Z this afternoon.
After 23Z, expecting to drop down into the MVFR category mostly
for ceilings but visibility may also become MVFR between 15/06z
and 15/15z with light snow expected to be falling over the
terminal. Between 15/15-18z Friday morning, some guidance
continues to hint at IFR conditions though, this remains uncertain
as this time. For now, hinted at a few clouds around 700 ft with
the overcast deck around 1500 ft for this TAF package. Also, light
northerly winds are expected to persist throughout the TAF
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

...A snow day is on tap for the interior Kenai Peninsula northward
to Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su...

A short-wave trough moved out of Southwest Alaska and toward the
Kenai Peninsula last evening. The trough has now stalled over
southern Cook Inlet and the southern Kenai Peninsula. Vorticity
maxima will rotate around the stationary trough axis, tracking
from the eastern Kenai Peninsula northwestward to Anchorage and
into the Mat-Su. Meanwhile, a surface low will track into western
Prince William Sound this morning. The strongest upward vertical
motion ahead of the vort-maxes will align with the best low level
convergence northwest of the surface low center, extending from
western Prince William Sound across the northern Kenai Peninsula
and western Chugach Mountains into Anchorage. Thus, the heaviest
precipitation and highest snow accumulation will be within this
corridor.

There was a shallow above freezing layer in Anchorage yesterday,
but as precipitation fell into and saturated the column, the
process of "evaporative cooling" has cooled the column enough for
precipitation to begin as all snow for most of the Anchorage area.
The prior snow accumulation forecast was based on the expectation
that precipitation near sea level would begin as a rain/snow mix.
Based on the fact that it is starting as all snow and there is now
higher confidence in the location of key features, have upped snow
amounts from the interior Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage, with
highest amounts along and near the mountains. Road surface
temperatures are still fairly warm (32 to 34 degrees), so it may
take a while for snow to stick to the road surfaces. While snow
will spread northwestward into the Mat-Su, snow bands will tend
to weaken as they reach there, so expect lighter snow accumulation
the farther north and west you head from Anchorage.

Meanwhile, a more convective environment and warmer air near the
low center in Prince William Sound will bring a steady supply of
rain showers to the Cordova and Valdez areas (with snow in the
mountains). Some showers will also track northward into the
Copper River Basin in the form of snow.

Ultimately, an upper level low center will move from in the
vicinity of the Kenai Peninsula tonight in response to the motion
of vort- maxes rotating about the trough axis. This low will
linger through friday before weakening and exiting into the Gulf
of Alaska Friday night. Precipitation will become less focused and
more showery as we head through tonight and Friday. Marginally
colder air will slowly wrap around the trough axis and upper low
center, leading to a transition to snow for all but the immediate
coastline by late tonight. Conditions will be pretty quiet across
Kodiak Island and the Gulf, with gusty winds and a few showers as
cold air advects from the Bering Sea to the Gulf.

The region will dry out Friday night and Saturday as a ridge
builds in from the west. With decreasing clouds and some fresh
snow cover, this will allow temperatures to drop into the teens
to 20s for much of Southcentral. A major storm system will cross
the Bering Sea on saturday, with the leading frontal system
approaching the western Gulf and Kodiak Island Saturday night.
Thus, it will be a short break before winds and precipitation
move into the region over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and today: Thursday
and Friday)...

A trough anchored by low pressure over Southcentral will remain in
place over the southern Mainland through Saturday. Deep cold air
advection on the backside of the trough will aid in light
northerly winds and colder air to much of Southwest Alaska through
the start of the weekend. A few weak, embedded shortwaves will
move over the region today, continuing the showery pattern for
interior and coastal areas. On Friday these waves taper off, but
sustained cold air advection from the Bering Strait will pick up
moisture from the relatively warm water, bringing a chance for
snow and rain showers to the Y-K Delta Coast through Saturday
morning. A few, very light showers are possible over the interior
areas but most of the precipitation is expected along the
coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Thursday
and Friday)...

A low in the Bering crosses the Central and Eastern Aleutians on
Thursday, bringing light rain showers to Unalaska, Cold Bay, and
Sand Point. Showers linger in the Eastern Aleutians through Friday
as cold, northwesterly flow over warmer waters drives ocean-
effect rain. These northwesterly winds will also produce gusty
winds through gaps and passes Thursday evening through Friday.

A ridge builds in as the low moves into the North Pacific. Winds
will lighten as the ridge transits across the Aleutian Chain,
though skies will remain cloudy. Wet conditions return as a low
near the Kamchatka Peninsula pushes a front through the Aleutians
beginning on Friday. Moderate to heavy precipitation, as well as
stronger winds, are expected as the front quickly moves across the
Aleutians through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
 Gulf of Alaska: A weakening low moves across the Southern Gulf
towards the Southeast Panhandle on Saturday. A Bering low crosses
the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. Winds along the North Gulf Coast
are expected to reach gale force by Sunday evening and persist
through Monday. Wave heights will likely remain below 20 ft
through Monday.

Bering Sea: A Bering low exits into the Southern Gulf by Sunday.
As the front off a second low enters the western Bering by
Saturday and pushes across the Bering Sea through Sunday afternoon
before extending into the Gulf. Anticipate gale force winds and
waves greater than 20 ft through Sunday night. Northerly winds on
the back side of the low may produce gusty conditions through the
gaps and passes along the Southern AKPen and Eastern Aleutians. A
third system enters the north-western Bering by Monday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Models are showing rather good agreement in the extended range for
a series of lows tracking across the Bering towards the Gulf early
next week. Remnants of a Bering low moving into the Southern Gulf
on Sunday and track towards the Southeast Panhandle. A second low
in the western Bering tracks eastward towards the Southern Alaska
Peninsula by Sunday night. Its front approaches the Southwest
coast Sunday afternoon and will bring moderate precipitation to
the Southern AKPen and along the coastal areas. Additionally,
increasingly gust winds and heavy precipitation are anticipated to
track along the Aleutians Islands with the front. Cloudy skies
will persist along the rest of the Southwest Mainland into early
next week, with precipitation possible along the upslope regions
of the mountain ranges. How far inland the precipitation reaches
will be dependent on where exactly the low tracks. Should it stay
far enough south, it will be less likely the moisture feed will
make it far enough to produce any significant rain or snowfall
across the Southern Mainland. As the low advances into the Gulf,
winds may become gusty along the North Gulf Coast with the
possibility of heavy precipitation along the Southcentral Coastal
areas. Continued cloudy skies across the Southcentral Mainland and
along the Gulf will likely result in below average temperatures. A
third system enters the northwestern Bering by Monday and looks to
carry similar conditions as the prior, with gusty winds and
moderate to heavy precipitation along the Aleutian Chain. This
system elongates, eventually merging with the Gulf low to create a
broad longwave trough pattern stretching across the Southern
Mainland and Southeast Panhandle as well as the Gulf of Alaska and
the Bering sea. Northerly flow across the Bering, with enough cold
air advection, at the base of the trough will produce increasingly
gusty gap winds Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 411 413 155 172 173 174 175 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ/KC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM