Small Craft Advisory 803, NWS Anchorage, AK

342 
FZAK51 PAFC 101130
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-110000-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1011 mb low 220 nm southeast of Cordova this morning will 
dissipate by Sunday night. A second 993 mb low will develop 310 nm
southwest of Cordova Monday morning and move 290 nm southeast of
Cordova at 974 mb Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ119-110000-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Along the coast, SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-110000-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft 
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-110000-
Resurrection Bay-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-110000-
Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft 
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-110000-
Port Valdez-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-110000-
Valdez Narrows-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-110000-
Valdez Arm-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-110000-
Passage Canal-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-110000-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-110000-
Barren Islands East-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-110000-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-110000-
Chiniak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-110000-
Marmot Bay-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-110000-
Shelikof Strait-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-110000-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-110000-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-110000-
Kachemak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 AM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A fairly zonal pattern extends across the North Pacific with the
jetstream generally remaining between 45N-50N. An area of low
pressure over the Kuskokwim Delta is currently moving eastward. A
second area of low pressure is intensifying while moving
northeastward across the western Aleutians. Closer to the surface,
radar imagery shows showers moving eastward across the north Gulf
of Alaska. Another area of showers is moving northeastward across
Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula. A third area of showers is
moving eastward across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and synoptic
scale features at both the surface and in the upper levels for the
first 2 days. Day 3, models begin to diverge with the placement of
a low pressure system over the eastern Bering Sea moving towards
the Kuskokwim Delta. Forecast confidence remains above average for
the next 48 hours and then moderate confidence for day 3.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions persist throughout the TAF period. Temporary
MVFR conditions are expected before 09th/16z as celings may fall
below 3000ft. Visibility may be reduced at times in light rain
before 09th/18z. Vicinity showers then continue through 10th/10z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday morning)...

A long-wave trough will remain anchored over the Southern
Mainland through Sunday afternoon. Multiple embedded shortwaves
will track west to east across Southcentral this weekend, keeping
conditions generally cloudy and unsettled. The first of these
waves is providing support for a surface low near Yakutat. This
low will move onshore this morning with lingering showers
extending from Valdez to Cordova. A second wave is moving across
the Kenai Peninsula this morning. Scattered valley rain showers
and higher elevation snow showers have developed from Homer to the
Mat-Su Valleys, and will linger through early Saturday afternoon
as a southwesterly flow ahead of the trough advects moisture up
Cook Inlet. This feature will allow shower activity to continue
across Prince William Sound through the day today as well.

The main upper-level trough begins to slide east Sunday. As it
does, the flow aloft will become westerly, ushering in cooler and
drier air. Lingering moisture will be forced along the windward
side of the mountains, resulting in snow showers for the Upper
Hillside of Anchorage overnight Saturday into Sunday. A surface
trough building across Prince William Sound overnight Saturday
will help increase the pressure gradient as a surface ridge also
builds over Southwest Alaska. The result will be some gusty winds
for Whittier and Seward early Sunday morning before the gradient
relaxes and the flow aloft becomes more southerly.

There may be some clearing by Sunday afternoon as a transient
upper-level ridge crests overhead. A weak wave to the north may
keep some clouds and snow showers along the Alaska Range around
Broad Pass and north of Paxson, however. By Monday morning, a weak
trough in the western Gulf will turn the flow southeasterly once
again with rain developing along the coast. A surface low will
also develop south of Kodiak Island and quickly strengthen to a
storm-force low as it moves to the central Gulf by late Monday.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through
Sun night)...

A low pressure system currently spinning near or just south of
Sleetmute is expected to continue weakening while moving eastward
and across the western Alaska Range through this afternoon. As a
result, expect continued on and off rain showers for the valley
locations with some snow mixed in for the higher elevations such
as the Kilbuck/Kuskokwim Mountains and the western Alaska Range.
Breezy conditions are also expected today across much of Southwest
due to the pressure gradient over the area. 850 mb temperatures
are expected to begin decreasing from west to east today as colder
air wraps in on the back side of the low. The cold air advection
behind this low isn't super impressive but it will lower snow
levels to around 500-1000 ft for this evening through the
overnight hours. Any residual rain shower activity will decrease
in coverage overnight, though, any shower that occurs overnight or
even early Sunday morning may have some wet snowflakes mix in with
them at low elevations (Aniak and Sleetmute). Some areas of the
Middle Kuskokwim Valley such as Sparrevohn around 1000-1500 ft may
actually see some snowfall accumulation with around an inch or
two of snow possible. Temperatures overnight Saturday into early
Sunday morning are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 30s
across Southwest with upper 30s to low 40s for immediate coastal
locations.

Next, a system currently moving into the western Bering this
morning is expected to reach the Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay
coastline by Sunday morning. As a result, expect another round of
unsettled weather with rain and breezy conditions. Temperatures
are expected to quickly warm out ahead of the front before any
precipitation starts. Therefore, expecting snow levels to increase
to 1500-2000 ft keeping all low elevations such as Bethel, Aniak,
and Sleetmute all liquid.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Sun night)...

Westerly flow with gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts out of
gaps and passes of 55 to 65 mph is expected to continue through
the morning hours for the Alaska Peninsula and the Eastern
Aleutians. Winds will then subside during the afternoon and
evening as the low pressure system over interior Southwest Alaska
continues to weaken thus weakening the pressure gradient across
the area. Any cold air advection will also begin to weaken during
the evening and overnight. Wave heights will be at their highest
this morning around 25 to 28 ft before subsiding as well this
afternoon and evening north and south of the Alaska Peninsula as
conditions slowly improve.

Next, a gale force system is currently bringing rain and
increasing winds to the Western Aleutians including Shemya and the
western Bering Sea this morning. This low will continue to move
into the central Bering by tonight with its front moving along the
Aleutian Chain. As a result, expect unsettled conditions with
periods of rain and windy conditions for today through tonight.
The front reaches the Pribilofs and the Eastern Aleutians tonight
bringing another round of rain and gusty winds to the area through
Sunday.

Another gale force system with much more moisture to work with is
expected to begin impacting the Western Aleutians Sunday night. As
a result, expect another round of rain and winds as the active and unsettled
weather pattern continues across the Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering Sea:
An Eastern Bering low spreads high-end gales across the entire
Bering, especially near the Pribilof Islands. Winds in the eastern
Bering diminish through Tuesday morning as this low tracks inland
over Kuskokwim Delta and dissipates. Seas to 18 feet in the
eastern Bering Monday morning, subsiding Tuesday. A strong, wind-
wrapped North Pacific low reaches the western Aleutians early
Monday morning. This low spreads southwesterly storm force winds
south of the Aleutians and along the western Aleutians Monday
morning through Tuesday morning as it tracks eastward across the
Bering. High-end gales across the entire Bering Sea Monday through
Tuesday morning. Seas building to 25 feet across the western
Aleutians on Tuesday and along the Pacific side of the Aleutians
through Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska:
A well-developed low moves into the western Gulf Monday morning
and strengthens as it tracks to the eastern Gulf for Tuesday
night. This low spreads storm force winds across the entire Gulf
on Monday night and along the entire Gulf coast through Tuesday
morning. Winds diminish in the Gulf by Wednesday morning. Seas to
20 feet along the North Gulf Coast and 25 feet across the southern
Gulf for Tuesday morning, subsiding Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long-term forecast will start out Tuesday with a pair of lows,
one over the Bering and another likely stronger one over the Gulf
as the primary weather-makers for Southern Alaska. There is some
model disagreement on how strong the low in the Gulf is, and as
usual, where the center of the low is and therefore where the
greatest impacts are. Other than areas of gale force winds west
and south of the two lows, impacts to mainland Alaska from both
lows will be minimal. Temperatures look to be mild enough for most
low elevation locations to stay mostly rain, as there isn't a
well-established cold pool up north. The Bering low eventually
merges with the one over the Gulf by Wednesday which should allow
for somewhat cooler air to wrap around the back side of the Gulf
low into Southwest Alaska.

Agreement quickly diminishes by Thursday regarding whether
another low approaches the west coast and if so how strong it is.
In contrast, many of the models hold the Gulf low nearly
stationary while weakening through into Friday. This pattern will
keep things unsettled, but mostly wet and not snowy for the lower
elevations of Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 131 132 137 138 150 151 152 165 170 173 174 175
176 177 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW