Small Craft Advisory 806, NWS Anchorage, AK

803 
FZAK51 PAFC 111141
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120030-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 mb low 85 nm south of Kodiak City moves 80 nm southeast 
of Middleton Island at 968 mb Mon evening. The low continues 
to 90 nm southeast of Yakutat at 983 mb Tue afternoon and then 
inland Tue evening.

$$

PKZ119-120030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt becoming N 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt becoming Variable 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-120030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-120030-
Resurrection Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-120030-
Prince William Sound-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-120030-
Port Valdez-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-120030-
Valdez Narrows-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-120030-
Valdez Arm-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-120030-
Passage Canal-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt this morning, then 
diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-120030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-120030-
Barren Islands East-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-120030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt, except W wind 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-120030-
Chiniak Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt early, then becoming NW 25 kt. 
Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt early. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-120030-
Marmot Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt early, becoming W wind 25 kt. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-120030-
Shelikof Strait-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-120030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. 
S of Anchor Point, SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-120030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-120030-
Kachemak Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

109 
FZAK51 PAFC 112322
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121230-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 977 mb low 90 nm south of Middleton Island tracks 35 nm south 
of Yakutat at 981 mb by Tue afternoon and then inland Tue evening.
Its front reaches the East Gulf Coast early Tue morning. An 
elongated 985 mb eastern Bering low Tue afternoon tracks 110 nm 
southeast of Middleton Island at 987 mb by Wed morning and then 10
nm west of Yakutat at 989 mb for Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-121230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 19 
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming W late. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt, becoming NE after midnight near the coast.
Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121230-
Resurrection Bay-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121230-
Prince William Sound-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt diminishing to variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2
ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121230-
Port Valdez-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121230-
Valdez Narrows-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121230-
Valdez Arm-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121230-
Passage Canal-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to
20 kt near Whittier increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft 
building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in 
the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121230-
Barren Islands East-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15
ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121230-
Chiniak Bay-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121230-
Marmot Bay-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121230-
Shelikof Strait-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121230-
Kachemak Bay-
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft 
building to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt, except 10 kt E of Homer. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

328 
FZAK51 PAFC 121143
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-130100-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 971 mb low 170 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves to 110 nm
southeast of Yakutat at 981 mb Tue afternoon and then inland Tue 
evening. An elongated 982 mb eastern Bering low Tue afternoon moves
190 nm east of Middleton Island at 987 mb Wed morning and then to
15 nm west of Yakutat at 989 mb for Wed afternoon. Another 990 mb 
low forms over the northwestern Gulf west of Middleton Island Wed 
night.

$$

PKZ119-130100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon, 
except becoming variable 10 kt along the coast. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-130100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming variable 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-130100-
Resurrection Bay-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-130100-
Prince William Sound-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt early, becoming Variable 15 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-130100-
Port Valdez-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt early. Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
Seas 1 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-130100-
Valdez Narrows-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-130100-
Valdez Arm-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-130100-
Passage Canal-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT AND WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-130100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming Variable 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas building to 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-130100-
Barren Islands East-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-130100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt, except W 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-130100-
Chiniak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt early, then becoming Variable 10 kt. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-130100-
Marmot Bay-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt early, then becoming S 10 kt. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-130100-
Shelikof Strait-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt early, becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. 
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-130100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S of Anchor Point, W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
N of Anchor Point, Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-130100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-130100-
Kachemak Bay-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 20 kt, strongest in the outer bay. 
Seas building to 3 ft inner bay and to 6 ft outer bay.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

903 
FZAK51 PAFC 122315
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-131230-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 mb low 90 nm east of Kodiak City moves to 35 nm south of 
Yakutat at 987 mb Wed morning. A 990 mb low enters Shelikof Strait 
from the Bering Wed morning then moves near Cape Cleare Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-131230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-131230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-131230-
Resurrection Bay-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-131230-
Prince William Sound-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-131230-
Port Valdez-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-131230-
Valdez Narrows-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-131230-
Valdez Arm-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-131230-
Passage Canal-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to variable wind less than 10 
kt during the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-131230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-131230-
Barren Islands East-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-131230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt, except W 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-131230-
Chiniak Bay-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ137-131230-
Marmot Bay-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ138-131230-
Shelikof Strait-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-131230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-131230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-131230-
Kachemak Bay-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft...except seas 4
ft in the outer bay through early evening.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low pressure system is currently over the central Bering Sea and
is moving northeastward. The jetstream currently remains south of
50N west of 170W and then extends northeastward to over Bristol
Bay and then southeastward to over the Pacific Northwest. Broad
upper level high pressure extends across the northern half of the
Alaskan mainland. Closer to the surface, radar shows isolated
showers moving southeastward across the northern Gulf and across
Bristol Bay. Skies have significantly cleared out across the
Anchorage Bowl over the past few hours.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features at both the surface and in the upper
levels for the first 36 hours. Models then show slight
differences in the placement and orientation of a strong low in
the northern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday. Eitherway, there is a
high confidence this low will produce widespread gale force winds.
Southeasterly storm force winds are likely along the coastal
waters of the northern Gulf Monday evening due to the localized
funneling of winds. Forecast confidence overall remains near
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period.
Vicinity fog may locally reduce visibility before 10th/19z. Light
winds will increase to out of the southeast at 10kts gusting to
18kts after 11th/06z. These winds will then ease again after
11th/10z. Finally, there is a chance of low level wind shear after
11th/14z as northeasterly 10kt winds are expected at the surface
with 30kt southeasterly winds at 2000ft AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday afternoon)...

Precipitation will diminish this morning as the upper-level trough
that has been parked over Southcentral slides east to the Al-Can
border. Behind it, a transient upper-level ridge will move over
the region, providing for a clearing and drying trend through
Sunday. Gusty westerly gap winds will also subside later this
morning as the trough exits and the ridge crests overhead. Given
the recent rain and copious low-level moisture, areas of fog are
possible this morning, especially in locations that see some
clearing and falling temperatures prior to sunrise.

The ridge lifts northeast tonight as the first of a series of
shortwaves lifts toward the region in advance of an upper-level
low moving toward the Southwest Alaska coast. A trough ahead of
the main weather front will move over Southcentral Sunday night.
This feature will bring rain showers to Prince William Sound and
draw a weak Turnagain Arm wind across Anchorage. The main occluded
front then moves over Kodiak Island by Monday morning, with a
triple point low developing east of Kodiak City. This low will
lift to an area south of Seward by Monday afternoon. A deep fetch
of moisture will accompany a strong southeasterly flow along the
front and ahead of the low, with areas of moderate to heavy rain
along the coast and snow in the higher elevations (above 2,000
ft). The strong southeasterly flow will help induce downsloping,
keeping limiting precipitation across western Kenai Peninsula and
the Anchorage Bowl. Winds will also be on the increase ahead of
the front, especially as the low deepens as it tracks to the
northern Gulf. A storm- once barrier jet is expected across the
coastal waters of the northern Gulf with southeasterly gaps winds
and a northerly wind across the Anchorage Bowl, Cook Inlet, and
Valdez area.

As the surface low moves east and the trailing upper-level low
moves to the Gulf, a shortwave will lift north across the Copper
River Basin for Tuesday. This feature will allow a mix of rain and
snow to develop. The upper-level low exits the region late
Tuesday as yet another shortwave moves into the western Gulf.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through
Monday night)...

A low pressure system over the Bering is expected to bring another
round of rain and breezy conditions to Southwest for today through
Monday night. However, any cold air in place across Southwest this
morning is expected to be quickly eroded as warm air from the
Bering is brought inland. As a result, expecting any precipitation
with this system to be all rain for the Kuskokwim Delta, Bristol
Bay and most of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley except for perhaps
Sparrevohn where a rain/snow mix is expected. Though, even here
temperatures are expected to warm enough to be mainly a rain
event. Most of the rain is expected to be of the steadier variety
today becoming more showery overnight through Monday night as the
center of the low moves along the Southwest coastline. Colder air
will filter back in once again on the backside of the low Monday
evening/Monday night returning overnight low temperatures to near
freezing to slightly below for interior areas. Coastal areas will
mainly remain near freezing to the upper 30s. Any residual shower
activity Monday night will be cold enough to support flakes to
even low elevation areas but this is expected to be very minor
otherwise, expect most activity to remain over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday night)...

A gale force low pressure system continues moving from west to
east across the Bering today. Its front is expected to continue
moving along the Aleutian Chain bringing a round of rain and
increased winds once again. The Pribilofs on the backside of this
low are expected to endure storm force wind gusts due to the tight
pressure gradient combined with cold air advection this evening
through Monday morning. Winds will subside Monday morning as the
gradient relaxes and the cold air advection mostly ends.

Another gale force low pressure system moves into the Western
Aleutians and the western Bering Sea tonight. This system will
bring another round of rain and high end gale force winds with
storm force winds gusts- (especially south of the Aleutian Chain)
Monday through Monday night. Expect increased wave heights as well
of 20 to 25 feet. The system continues moving across the Bering
Monday spreading the rain and winds eastward along the Chain. The
front is expected to reach the Pribilofs and Dutch Harbor Monday
evening/night with rain and windy conditions.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf: A strong low in the Gulf on Tuesday produces low end storm
force winds along the North Gulf Coast as well as high end gales
along the Southern Gulf through Tuesday morning. Seas may reach as
high as 20-25 feet through Tuesday morning. Winds and waves
rapidly diminish throughout the day and into Wednesday morning as
the low dissipates.

Bering: A low in the western Bering produces
gale force winds across the Aleutian Islands through early
Wednesday morning. Winds and waves diminish throughout the day
Wednesday as the low crosses over the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A low over the Gulf dissipates rather rapidly as it pushes
onshore on Wednesday. Remnant energy merges with the base of a
trough extending off a Bering low, producing a broad upper level
longwave trough pattern over much of the state. Persistent low
pressure over the Gulf will keep conditions showery, with much of
the moisture inflow being shunted off towards the Panhandle. Any
moisture that makes its way northwards will be able to produce
precipitation along the upslope regions of the mountain ranges
along the Southcentral Coast. Further west, the Bering low brings
gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the Aleutians before
pushing into the Southwest Mainland. This system moves across the
Alaska Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Alaska by early Thursday
morning, it then lingers in the Gulf, weakening slowly, as we
enter the weekend. A third system enters the western Bering by
Saturday, catching the remnants of the Gulf low in its trough and
elongating the Bering low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 177 178 179 351
411 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM