Small Craft Advisory 638, NWS Anchorage, AK

256 
FZAK52 PAFC 142336
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151215-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi Volcano 79 nm East of Kiska is currently active.

A developing 1008 mb low 330 nm south of Kiska merges with a 1002
mb low 350 nm south of Adak this afternoon, deepens to 997 mb and
moves to 65 nm south of Seguam Island at 1000 mb Sun afternoon. A
front moves into the Aleutian Islands and spread east to the 
Alaskan Peninsula through Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-151215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151215-
Bristol Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151215-
Unalaska Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151215-
Adak to Kiska-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151215-
Kiska to Attu-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
336 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

058 
FZAK52 PAFC 151204
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160045-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Semisopochnoi Volcano 79 nm East of Kiska is currently active.

A 998 mb North Pacific low 270 nm south of Adak tonight will move
to 140 nm south of Nikolski Tue morning. Its associated front 
will move into the Aleutian Islands and spread east to the Alaskan
Peninsula through Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-160045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160045-
Bristol Bay-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160045-
Unalaska Bay-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160045-
Adak to Kiska-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160045-
Kiska to Attu-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
404 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

637 
FZAK52 PAFC 152231
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161130-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 330 nm south of Adak strengthens to 995 mb 85 nm 
south of Seguam Island Mon morning. The low shifts to 50 nm east of 
Chignik and weakens to 1005 mb Tues afternoon. Its front crosses the 
Aleutian Islands and spreads into Bristol Bay through Tues 
afternoon. A series of weak lows cross the northern Bering through 
Tues afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161130-
Bristol Bay-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161130-
Unalaska Bay-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming E 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161130-
Adak to Kiska-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161130-
Kiska to Attu-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming NW. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
231 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E of St Matthew island, SW wind 20 kt. W of St Matthew Island,
N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern remains amplified with a positively tilted deep upper
level trough over the Alaskan mainland extending southwestward
through the western Bering/Aleutians. The jetstream remains south
of 50N through 160W, then extends northeastward to over Northwest
Territory. An upper low near 47N 173E is currently drifting
northeastward. This low is in the process of weakening as a second
low is developing farther to the southeast near the core of the
jet.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows isolated showers
moving northwestward across Prince William Sound into Turnagain
Arm. Other areas of isolated showers are moving southeastward
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features at both the surface and upper levels. This
allows for above average forecast confidence over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level longwave trough that had parked itself in the
eastern Bering Sea all and has been largely been responsible for
the wet week over Southcentral will finally move across the area
today. It had been expected that this trough would cause showers
over the mountains as it approached the area, but it appears that
there will be more showers at lower elevations today with it and
they will not just be over the mountains. This is especially true
for the Anchorage and Mat-Su Valleys. Another detail is that it
looks like the Copper River Basin will see a lot of shower
activity today with this trough. It is not nearly unstable enough
for thunderstorms, but the precipitation should be showery in
nature which should lead to some areas seeing briefly heavy
rainfall.

By this evening, the trough will have moved to the AlCan border
with a cut-off low in the northeast Gulf of Alaska. With the
trough passage there will be some clearing (or at least partial
clearing) for areas around Southcentral tonight into Sunday
morning. The next system will come in the form of a short wave
from the northwest Sunday afternoon or evening. Rainfall should
be mainly relegated to the far northern Susitna Valley with this
system with mainly high clouds elsewhere. A second short wave will
bring a chance of rain elsewhere on Monday but the next good
change of rain (after today) for most of the area will be Monday
night as a low approaching the area from the southwest phases
with the short wave and brings in a lot more moisture at that
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

At 500 mb there is a closed low over the Beaufort Sea and a
trough axis extending from Western Alaska Range to Alaska
Peninsula. There are several vorticity lobes associated with the
trough that is bisecting the AKPEN. There is a transitory ridge
pushing into Alaska Saturday morning and afternoon. Then more
shortwaves will get kicked out from the aforementioned closed low
and move towards Nunivak and into Southwest AK. Expect lingering
showers on Saturday, then a break and then another round of light
showers. The polar jet will make its way towards Bethel on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The Semisopochnoi volcano which is located approximately 140
nautical miles west of Adak has been having occasional eruptions.
Ash was observed on satellite imagery early this morning.
Easterly winds could transport trace amounts of ashfall to marine
areas west of the volcano.

The jet core with a magnitude of 115 knots is south of
Cold Bay this morning. At 500 mb there is a closed low south of
Adak and a trough axis extending from Kodiak to the Alaska
Peninsula. Additionally there is a closed low south of Adak.
There are several vorticity lobes associated with the trough and
the closed low. At the surface there is high pressure over most of
the Bering and a mature low with an occluded front south of the
chain. There Bering looks relatively mild for the next 48 hrs the
caveat being the northern Bering where gales force winds may
materialize. The Aleutians will also be relatively mild expect
gusty winds and intermittent precipitation associated with the
low on Sunday. The current thinking is that these enhanced winds
will be short lived and will subside on Sunday as the low
continues to weaken.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Forecast confidence continues high. A North Pacific low tracks
over the Aleutians Monday, into the Alaska Peninsula for Tuesday,
and across the Gulf by Wednesday. The main front remains South of
the Aleutians and Gulf through Wednesday. Gusty winds less than
gale force spread over the Aleutians Monday, increasing to gale
force winds across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, and
diminishing to less than gale force as it moves over the Gulf
through Wednesday. Seas less than 10 feet Pacific side of the
Aleutians Tuesday, 12 feet across the Southern Gulf for late
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The key discernible features in the long term are a broad upper
level trough over the eastern Bering and mainland, along with an
upper level ridge in place over the Gulf. This will make for an
amplified pattern to start the next week. On Tuesday, a potent
system will bring rain and wind to the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak
Island, and eventually Southcentral Alaska. Meanwhile farther
west, several upper level waves embedded within the trough will
keep showery conditions across Southwest Alaska during the middle
of next week as several surface lows spin up over the northern
Bering and then move into the Kuskokwim Delta coast. While the
trough attempts to dig southward over the Bering Wednesday, a
ridge noses in over the western Aleutians keeping much of the
western Bering quiet through midweek. By Thursday, the trough
pushes eastward and additional shortwaves will keep an active
pattern across the southern mainland with showers. As has been the
pattern recently, several lows spinning up in the northern
Pacific are steered northward thanks to the ridge over the Gulf.
This looks to occur again next Thursday into Friday as a
moisture-laden system in the North Pacific arrives over
Southcentral. Overall, there is moderate to high confidence that
an active and persistently wet pattern in on tap for much of
southern Alaska through the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ/KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KO