Small Craft Advisory 637, NWS Anchorage, AK

869 
FZAK51 PAFC 142252
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151215-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 mb low 30 nm south of Middleton Island dissipates into a 
trough 150 nm south of Middleton Island Sun morning as its front 
moves into southeast Alaska. An interior Alaska trough will form a
1011 mb low south of Seward midday Sun and move through Middleton
Island at 1017 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151215-
Resurrection Bay-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151215-
Prince William Sound-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151215-
Port Valdez-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151215-
Valdez Narrows-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas
3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151215-
Valdez Arm-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151215-
Passage Canal-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151215-
Barren Islands East-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151215-
Chiniak Bay-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151215-
Marmot Bay-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151215-
Shelikof Strait-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 8 ft S of Anchor Point.
.SUN...S of Anchor Point, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. N of Anchor
Point, variable wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151215-
Kachemak Bay-
252 PM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

996 
FZAK51 PAFC 151145
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160100-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1012 mb low will develop 40 nm south of Seward Mon evening and 
move to 15 nm south of Middleton Island at 1017 mb Mon afternoon. A 
1004 mb North Pacific low will move to 85 nm south of Kodiak Tue 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-160100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160100-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160100-
Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160100-
Port Valdez-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160100-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160100-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160100-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160100-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160100-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160100-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160100-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160100-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

111 
FZAK51 PAFC 152245
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161130-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weak trough elongates across the Northern Gulf through Tues 
afternoon. The front transits into the Northern Gulf trough Tues 
afternoon. A 1004 mb low forms 50 nm east of Chignik Mon afternoon 
and moves to 35 nm south of Montague Island Tues afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-161130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161130-
Resurrection Bay-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161130-
Prince William Sound-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161130-
Port Valdez-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161130-
Valdez Narrows-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161130-
Valdez Arm-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161130-
Passage Canal-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161130-
Barren Islands East-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161130-
Chiniak Bay-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161130-
Marmot Bay-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161130-
Shelikof Strait-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161130-
Kachemak Bay-
245 PM AKDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern remains amplified with a positively tilted deep upper
level trough over the Alaskan mainland extending southwestward
through the western Bering/Aleutians. The jetstream remains south
of 50N through 160W, then extends northeastward to over Northwest
Territory. An upper low near 47N 173E is currently drifting
northeastward. This low is in the process of weakening as a second
low is developing farther to the southeast near the core of the
jet.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows isolated showers
moving northwestward across Prince William Sound into Turnagain
Arm. Other areas of isolated showers are moving southeastward
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features at both the surface and upper levels. This
allows for above average forecast confidence over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level longwave trough that had parked itself in the
eastern Bering Sea all and has been largely been responsible for
the wet week over Southcentral will finally move across the area
today. It had been expected that this trough would cause showers
over the mountains as it approached the area, but it appears that
there will be more showers at lower elevations today with it and
they will not just be over the mountains. This is especially true
for the Anchorage and Mat-Su Valleys. Another detail is that it
looks like the Copper River Basin will see a lot of shower
activity today with this trough. It is not nearly unstable enough
for thunderstorms, but the precipitation should be showery in
nature which should lead to some areas seeing briefly heavy
rainfall.

By this evening, the trough will have moved to the AlCan border
with a cut-off low in the northeast Gulf of Alaska. With the
trough passage there will be some clearing (or at least partial
clearing) for areas around Southcentral tonight into Sunday
morning. The next system will come in the form of a short wave
from the northwest Sunday afternoon or evening. Rainfall should
be mainly relegated to the far northern Susitna Valley with this
system with mainly high clouds elsewhere. A second short wave will
bring a chance of rain elsewhere on Monday but the next good
change of rain (after today) for most of the area will be Monday
night as a low approaching the area from the southwest phases
with the short wave and brings in a lot more moisture at that
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

At 500 mb there is a closed low over the Beaufort Sea and a
trough axis extending from Western Alaska Range to Alaska
Peninsula. There are several vorticity lobes associated with the
trough that is bisecting the AKPEN. There is a transitory ridge
pushing into Alaska Saturday morning and afternoon. Then more
shortwaves will get kicked out from the aforementioned closed low
and move towards Nunivak and into Southwest AK. Expect lingering
showers on Saturday, then a break and then another round of light
showers. The polar jet will make its way towards Bethel on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The Semisopochnoi volcano which is located approximately 140
nautical miles west of Adak has been having occasional eruptions.
Ash was observed on satellite imagery early this morning.
Easterly winds could transport trace amounts of ashfall to marine
areas west of the volcano.

The jet core with a magnitude of 115 knots is south of
Cold Bay this morning. At 500 mb there is a closed low south of
Adak and a trough axis extending from Kodiak to the Alaska
Peninsula. Additionally there is a closed low south of Adak.
There are several vorticity lobes associated with the trough and
the closed low. At the surface there is high pressure over most of
the Bering and a mature low with an occluded front south of the
chain. There Bering looks relatively mild for the next 48 hrs the
caveat being the northern Bering where gales force winds may
materialize. The Aleutians will also be relatively mild expect
gusty winds and intermittent precipitation associated with the
low on Sunday. The current thinking is that these enhanced winds
will be short lived and will subside on Sunday as the low
continues to weaken.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Forecast confidence continues high. A North Pacific low tracks
over the Aleutians Monday, into the Alaska Peninsula for Tuesday,
and across the Gulf by Wednesday. The main front remains South of
the Aleutians and Gulf through Wednesday. Gusty winds less than
gale force spread over the Aleutians Monday, increasing to gale
force winds across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, and
diminishing to less than gale force as it moves over the Gulf
through Wednesday. Seas less than 10 feet Pacific side of the
Aleutians Tuesday, 12 feet across the Southern Gulf for late
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The key discernible features in the long term are a broad upper
level trough over the eastern Bering and mainland, along with an
upper level ridge in place over the Gulf. This will make for an
amplified pattern to start the next week. On Tuesday, a potent
system will bring rain and wind to the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak
Island, and eventually Southcentral Alaska. Meanwhile farther
west, several upper level waves embedded within the trough will
keep showery conditions across Southwest Alaska during the middle
of next week as several surface lows spin up over the northern
Bering and then move into the Kuskokwim Delta coast. While the
trough attempts to dig southward over the Bering Wednesday, a
ridge noses in over the western Aleutians keeping much of the
western Bering quiet through midweek. By Thursday, the trough
pushes eastward and additional shortwaves will keep an active
pattern across the southern mainland with showers. As has been the
pattern recently, several lows spinning up in the northern
Pacific are steered northward thanks to the ridge over the Gulf.
This looks to occur again next Thursday into Friday as a
moisture-laden system in the North Pacific arrives over
Southcentral. Overall, there is moderate to high confidence that
an active and persistently wet pattern in on tap for much of
southern Alaska through the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ/KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KO