Small Craft Advisory 619, NWS Anchorage, AK

841 
FZAK51 PAFC 090004
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-091315-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+COOK INLET... 

A front in the western Gulf moves inland along the north Gulf 
coast tonight. A 992 mb low 20 nm south of Kodiak City Monday 
evening moves to 30 nm south of Cordova at 993 mb Tue morning and
then moves inland east of Cordova by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-091315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt, except SE wind 30 kt N and E of Middleton
Island then diminishing this evening. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-091315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-091315-
Resurrection Bay-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-091315-
Prince William Sound-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-091315-
Port Valdez-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-091315-
Valdez Narrows-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-091315-
Valdez Arm-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-091315-
Passage Canal-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming W 10 kt. Gusts to 30
kt in the evening. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming Variable wind 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-091315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-091315-
Barren Islands East-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-091315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-091315-
Chiniak Bay-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-091315-
Marmot Bay-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-091315-
Shelikof Strait-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-091315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-091315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-091315-
Kachemak Bay-
404 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main synoptic feature include a frontal boundary extending
from a surface low over the central Aleutians to the western
Gulf. A positive tilted ridge over the eastern interior of the
state is shifting eastward as the front advances toward the north
Gulf coast. The jet stream extends from the Kamchatka Peninsula
to the south of the Aleutian Chain with an embedded upper level
low located over the eastern Bering Sea near the Pribilofs. And,
remnants of Tropical Storm Nida from the Pacific Northwest will
provide a moisture feed into the jet and help enhance rainfall
rates throughout today. Radar is detecting light to moderate rain
ahead of the front across the Southcentral coast and northward
into Anchorage Bowl and the Mat- Su Valleys. Additionally, moist
cyclonic flow aloft associated with the aforementioned surface low
is providing showers over parts of the Bering and Aleutians with
the front ahead of the low spreading widespread showers across the
coastal and inland areas of Southwest, AK. The latest ASCAT
passes shows gusty winds wrapped around the low blowing over the
northern Bering Sea and funneling through gaps and passes of the
eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are coming into a better agreement compared to the previous
runs with the overall synoptic scale features in the short term
and still on track for an active and wet pattern across the
entire forecast areas through the middle of next week. The
uncertainty lies with remnants of typhoons that will play a role
with subsequent lows forming over the North Pacific and the onset
as well as duration with additional rainfall expected over the
coastal and inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds and increasing chances of rain continuing
through this evening along and behind the front with ceiling and
visibility changing at times from VFR to MVFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

Southcentral will receive a dousing of rain today, courtesy of a
potent upper low over the eastern Bering Sea. Southcentral will be
in the ideal location on the leading edge of the impressively
large cyclonic circulation, with a 100 kt+ jet streak and strong
short-wave driving northward toward Southcentral. This trough has
also tapped into a tropical moisture feed from the North Pacific.
This is demonstrated well by the total precipitable water value
of 1.31" on the 12Z Kodiak upper air sounding. Bottom line, all of
this will contribute to widespread rain, heavy at times, across
Southcentral today. As the strongest dynamics exit eastward
tonight, a series of short-waves rounding the weakening upper low
over Bristol Bay will cause rain to linger over Southcentral.
With deep south to southwest flow, rain will be favored across the
Mat-Su, Copper River Basin, and eastern Prince William Sound.
Rainfall totals through tonight will range from roughly one half
inch to one inch, with one to two inches along Prince William
Sound.

Meanwhile at the surface, a frontal system over the western Gulf
will lift to the north Gulf coast this afternoon, leading to a
gale force barrier jet in the typical area from Hinchinbrook
Entrance to Cape Suckling. These pre-frontal winds will be short-
lived as the front pushes quickly onshore and weakens late this
afternoon through early evening. However, strong and unstable
southwest flow will move in behind the front, bringing gusty winds
to much of the Gulf waters, Kodiak Island, and on up to Cook Inlet
and Kachemak Bay.

Attention will then shift to the remnants of Tropical Storm Nida
over the North Pacific. This storm will fully transition to an
extratropical low and be picked up by a digging short-wave south
of the western Aleutians today. This will cause the low to curve
northward toward southern Alaska, passing just south of the Alaska
Peninsula Monday then by Kodiak Island to the northern Gulf
Monday night. Once again, there will be a strong upper level jet
and abundant tropical moisture. However, in this case the jet will
be more zonal and we'll have a deep low over the Gulf instead of
a frontal system. Therefore, expect most of the rain to fall over
the southern half of Southcentral Monday night into Tuesday. Once
again, the heaviest rain will fall across the Prince William Sound
region, though rainfall totals all around will be quiet a bit
less than today's event. The storm will exit to the east Tuesday,
with rain lingering over the southeast Copper River Basin. This
storm will be impactful across much of the Gulf waters, with
widespread small craft to gale force winds, and possibly even some
storm force winds over the Gulf offshore zones.

Tuesday through Tuesday night will provide a brief break in steady
rain for most of Southcentral. However, the train of tropical
storms looks to continue, with at least one more round of rain
likely for Southcentral Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cloudy, wet and cool weather continues across Southwest Alaska
over the next few days as low pressure moves across the region.
The first low which is currently over the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay will continue to bring rain to Southwest Alaska today.
The first round of rain associated with the current low pressure
system will gradually taper off from west to east this evening and
tonight. A second round of rain is expected as the post-tropical
remnants of Nida pass to the south of the area. However, rain
bands associated with these remnants will move over Bristol Bay
Monday afternoon and evening. The second round of rain will
gradually taper off Monday night into Tuesday morning. Total 48hr
rainfall amounts will range between a half and one inch. The
highest amounts will be across the southern and eastern portions
of the region with lowest amounts over the northwestern portions
of the region. Due to the lack of diurnal heating as a result of
the ample cloud cover, thunderstorms are very unlikely during this
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather continues across the Bering/Aleutians over the
next couple days as low pressure exits the eastern Bering Sea to
over Southwest Alaska today. Localized areas of gale force winds
are expected this morning across the coastal waters along the
northern Alaska Peninsula. Winds will then ease to below gale
force this afternoon as the low moves inland. Winds will increase
across the coastal waters south of the Alaska Peninsula Monday
afternoon as the post-tropical remnants of Nida pass to the
distant south. Localized areas of gale force winds are expected
across the aforementioned area Monday afternoon. Winds will then
gradually ease from west to east Monday night into Tuesday
morning. No high seas are expected.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

The forecast period from Tuesday through Thursday looks to be
quite active for the area southeast of the Alaska Peninsula
northeast through the Gulf of Alaska. A low pressure system early
Tuesday will continue moving inland from Prince William Sound
while quickly weakening through Tuesday afternoon. As a result,
small craft winds are expected across a large area of the Gulf of
Alaska on the south side of the low with seas of 11 to 18 ft
subsiding throughout the day Tuesday to 6 to 12 ft. There will be
a brief break in activity Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
before another low follows a similar track for Wednesday into
Thursday. There remains uncertainty on exactly where the center of
this low will track but there is high confidence that another low
will bring gale force winds and seas 12 to 18 ft to the Gulf of
Alaska Wednesday. Models track this low anywhere from over Kodiak
Island to Kachemak Bay or as far east as Prince William Sound.
Regardless of track, there is also the potential for a high end
small craft or even gale force barrier jet along the North Gulf
Coast Wednesday. Lastly, expect winds less than 30 kts and seas
less than 7 ft for much of the Bering Sea through the forecast
period.

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term forecast period shows a Bering Sea trough with a
ridge over western North America and southwest flow in between the
two. Overall, this means a very active storm track for Southern
Alaska especially east of the Alaska Range to Southeast Alaska.
Southwest Alaska looks to predominantly remain in a showery regime
type pattern through the forecast period with the steadier and
heavier precipitation for east of the Alaska Range to Southeast
Alaska. The big challenge for this time period is determining the
timing and intensity of each system which remains drastically
different on the model suite. The GFS remains the strongest with
the system for Wednesday/Thursday with the Canadian-NH and ECMWF
further east and weaker. Overall, expect the sensible weather to
continue to entail unsettled conditions with plenty of wind and
rain, especially for coastal locations. Also, with the persistence
of this pattern, it should be noted that there is the potential
for an atmospheric river setup anywhere from the Prince William
Sound area east to Southeast Alaska. Some of these systems that
move northward into the Gulf of Alaska will also be possible
remnants of tropical systems in the West Pacific, therefore,
possibly very moisture laden. For the Bering Sea and Aleutians,
expect overall quiet conditions with occasional showers but with
generally light winds.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 119 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV