Small Craft Advisory 611, NWS Anchorage, AK

621 
FZAK52 PAFC 071128
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080000-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 85 nm Northwest of Dutch Harbor moves to 150 nm 
North of Dutch Harbor at 991 mb Sat afternoon. The low moves to 
130 nm North of Nelson Lagoon at 993 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-080000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080000-
Bristol Bay-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080000-
Unalaska Bay-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080000-
Adak to Kiska-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080000-
Kiska to Attu-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
607 AM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The jet stream spans from Kamchatka to the Central Aleutians and
dives south of Kodiak. At 500 mb there is a closed low near Attu
Island and a second closed low south of Kodiak. On satellite
imagery and radar the frontal boundary can be identified. And it
is moving up Cook Inlet and into the Gulf. There is a second
frontal boundary southwest of Dutch Harbor. Tropical Storm Nida is
east of Japan and moving closer to the northern jet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, model solutions are in good synoptic agreement through 48
hrs. By Sunday, there is model divergence over the North Pacific.
There are a series of tropical systems in the West Pacific Basin
and the models suggest that the remnants of the leading system
will move towards mainland Alaska. While there is consensus that
tropical moisture is headed our way, the precise track is yet
unknown.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...At the onset of the TAF period cigs near 1,000 feet have
been observed at PANC. On radar the front is moving up Cook
inlet. Cigs will bounce around today at PANC. Amendments will be
made as needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

A low east of Kodiak Island this morning will exit eastward across
the southern Gulf, with improving conditions across the island
through the day. Southcentral will remain underneath an upper
level ridge, with a hodgepodge of different cloud decks floating
around. As was the case yesterday, areas of low clouds and patchy
fog will start the day, especially from the western Kenai to
Anchorage. Then expect breaks of sun to develop this afternoon.
With weak instability in place across the region, precipitation
will be minimal with isolated to scattered showers focused along
inland mountains. A weak short-wave trough will lift northward
across Southcentral tonight, with increasing showers (and perhaps
even some steady rain) over the northern Susitna Valley and
northern Copper River Basin thanks to upslope flow.

The passing short-wave will push the ridge off to the east and
usher in a new more dynamic and much wetter pattern for
Southcentral. A series of weak impulses ejecting out of the
Bering Sea trough will cross overhead on Saturday. This will
combine with the remaining weak instability across inland areas
to produce increasing showers Saturday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, a frontal system extending from a low crossing the
southern Bering Sea will enter the Gulf Saturday afternoon,
bringing light rain to Kodiak Island. As the front lifts northward
toward Southcentral Saturday night a large and potent upper level
low will make quick progress toward Southwest Alaska, with a
leading short-wave and jet streak driving right toward Southcentral.
Strong upward vertical motion with these features will lead to
development of widespread steady rain across nearly all of
Southcentral on Sunday. Embedded areas of moderate to heavy rain
can be expected with the strongest forcing aloft and in upslope
flow along the north Gulf coast/Prince William Sound. The upper
low will track overhead of Southcentral Sunday night, with a host
of short-waves continues to rotate around it. Thus, expect areas
of rain to persist, though rain will become lighter and more
showery with time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An unsettled but benign weather pattern will continue across
Southwest Alaska over the next couple of days. Rain and showers
gradually taper off this morning and afternoon as a frontal
boundary moves eastward. A low pressure system will move in from
the west Saturday afternoon and bring rain to the Kuskokwim Valley
and Bristol Bay. The rain will continue moving eastward and reach
the Kuskokwim Valley Saturday night. The rain will then gradually
taper off from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. Due to
the ample cloud cover minimizing the intensity of diurnal heating,
thunderstorms are unlikely during this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather continues across the Bering/Aleutians as low
pressure moves into the eastern Bering this evening and tonight.
Sustained winds will generally remain below gale force, however
localized gale force gusts are to be expected along the cosstal
waters of the Alaska Peninsula (Bering Sea side) Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Winds will then ease Sunday night into Monday
as this low moves over Southwest Alaska. No high seas are expected
at this time.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...
The main marine focus will be on a low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska Monday Night into Tuesday. There continues to be a large
amount of uncertainty with the track and strength of this low.
Overall, it looks increasingly likely that the strongest winds and
highest seas will move into the eastern Gulf of Alaska. It
remains possible for Gale force winds and seas to 20 ft to occur across
much of the Gulf on Tuesday so it is worth mentioning, but this
solution is looking less likely so forecast will show lower winds
and seas for the time being unless a reason to change arises.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A North Pacific low is still expected to trek toward the Gulf but
more along the path of Kodiak Island on Monday and Tuesday. It's
not a surprise model solutions continue to differ with the
placement of the low and the arrival time of gales. Of all the
models, at least GFS and ECMWF invites gale winds near Kodiak
Island and portion of the Gulf between Monday evening and Tuesday
night. The bulk of tropical moisture associated with the low will
saturate the western and northern Gulf, including AK Peninsula
and the Alaska Range. At 500 mb, an upper low from the central
Aleutians will make its way through Bristol Bay by Tuesday,
causing clouds and increased rainfall to spread across the region
through at least Wednesday. This pattern combined with the
surface low will reinforced gusty winds especially along the gaps
and passes. Apart from the lows, a ridge of high pressure over
the Bering will transit from west to east through the midweek. As
a result, the forecast confidence remained moderate-high for the
first three days, Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB/CQ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CB