Small Craft Advisory 610, NWS Anchorage, AK

558 
FZAK52 PAFC 062337
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071215-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 55 nm South of Nikolski moves to 150 nm North of 
Dutch Harbor at 980 mb then moves to 50 nm South of Cape Newenham at
995 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-071215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-071215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 15
kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-071215-
Bristol Bay-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-071215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt except S 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-071215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-071215-
Unalaska Bay-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-071215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-071215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-071215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-071215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-071215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-071215-
Adak to Kiska-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-071215-
Kiska to Attu-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-071215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-071215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-071215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-071215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming NE
20 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 15 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

621 
FZAK52 PAFC 071128
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080000-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 995 mb low 85 nm Northwest of Dutch Harbor moves to 150 nm 
North of Dutch Harbor at 991 mb Sat afternoon. The low moves to 
130 nm North of Nelson Lagoon at 993 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-080000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080000-
Bristol Bay-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080000-
Unalaska Bay-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080000-
Adak to Kiska-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080000-
Kiska to Attu-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 AM AKDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough extending along an axis from Russia to the
Alaska Peninsula continues to dominate the weather pattern over
the Bering. On the south side of this trough, a short wave has
spun up a low center south of Kodiak Island. Farther east, an
upper level ridge remains over the central mainland, keeping much
of the central and northern part of the state under clear skies.
A decaying front extends across the entirety of the Southwest
coast, keeping a stagnant pattern of rain and cloud cover in place
over Southwest Alaska. A persistent low over the southeastern Gulf
is gradually pushing inland over the Alaska-British Columbia
border.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, model solutions are in good synoptic agreement. The main
forecast challenge over the next few days will be the development
of the low center south of Kodiak Island and its track into the
Gulf. By the weekend, another low spins up over the eastern Bering
and begins to track eastward. Models are currently handling this
system well, though there are differences in timing as the upper
level trough extends over Southcentral by Sunday. Overall, there
is moderate confidence in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expecting VFR conditions and light winds, though ceilings
may drop intermittently to MVFR with low level stratus.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday afternoon)...

A low tracking into the western Gulf this evening will bring
moderate rain to Kodiak Island. Its associated upper trough will
weaken as it moves eastward and any lingering showers should end
by early Friday morning. Cloud cover is slowly breaking up over
Southcentral this afternoon which will lead to warming
temperatures before sunset. Mostly sunny conditions are seen
across the remainder of the region under a weak upper level ridge.
The same general pattern aloft is expected on Friday, with any
developing precipitation being confined to higher terrain over the
interior.

A broad upper low in the southern Bering will lead to a pattern
change into the weekend as it gradually displaces the
aforementioned ridge. An embedded shortwave will move over
Southcentral by Saturday afternoon, bringing light rain to the
area. The southwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect in more
moisture and thus the cooler, wet pattern looks to continue
through Sunday. Rain will overspread much of the mainland by
Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds are possible along Turnagain Arm
late Saturday through Sunday afternoon as the surface low moves
northward near Bristol Bay and weak high pressure develops over
Prince William Sound. Although this is reminiscent of a more
fall-like pattern, winds in Anchorage are not expected to be
significant at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A quasi-stationary front over central Southwest Alaska will move
slowly east overnight while weakening. The main upper level energy
has separated from the front, moving south of the AKPen and
towards Kodiak Island. As a result, the system has lost much of
its upper level support, thus bringing an end to the rain by
Friday afternoon. The exception to this will be over the high
terrain where upslope flow will keep the precipitation going. On
Saturday, expect warmer conditions with pockets of sunshine. The
break in the weather will be brief however, as a strong low moves
from the North Pacific into the Eastern Bering. The mid to upper
level vorticity field from the system is expansive, resulting in
lift and onshore flow that will bring widespread rain to the
region on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The broad longwave trough with transient shortwaves will persist
over the region through the forecast period. A system developing
in the North Pacific today will strengthen rapidly as it moves
into the area, tapping into the large temperature gradient between
the North Pacific and Bering Sea. Widespread small craft advisory
winds and rain will accompany the low as it moves over the
Central and Eastern Aleutians Friday night. The low is expected to
reach its minimum pressure Sunday morning over the Eastern
Bering. Expect showery conditions over the Aleutian Chain after
the low passage, becoming widespread rain over the AKPen on Sunday
as the low stalls out.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...
The main marine focus will be on a low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska Monday Night into Tuesday. There continues to be a large
amount of uncertainty with the track and strength of this low.
Overall, it looks increasingly likely that the strongest winds and
highest seas will move into the eastern Gulf of Alaska. It
remains possible for Gale force winds and seas to 20 ft to occur
across much of the Gulf on Tuesday so it is worth mentioning, but
this solution is looking less likely so forecast will show lower
winds and seas for the time being unless a reason to change
arises.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A North Pacific low is still expected to trek toward the Gulf but
more along the path of Kodiak Island on Monday and Tuesday. It's
not a surprise model solutions continue to differ with the
placement of the low and the arrival time of gales. Of all the
models, at least GFS and ECMWF invites gale winds near Kodiak
Island and portion of the Gulf between Monday evening and Tuesday
night. The bulk of tropical moisture associated with the low will
saturate the western and northern Gulf, including AK Peninsula
and the Alaska Range. At 500 mb, an upper low from the central
Aleutians will make its way through Bristol Bay by Tuesday,
causing clouds and increased rainfall to spread across the region
through at least Wednesday. This pattern combined with the
surface low will reinforced gusty winds especially along the gaps
and passes. Apart from the lows, a ridge of high pressure over
the Bering will transit from west to east through the midweek. As
a result, the forecast confidence remained moderate-high for the
first three days, Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CB