Small Craft Advisory 599, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK52 PAFC 031200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040045-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low 180 nm south of Nikolski moves to 130 nm south of St
Matthew at 991 mb by Wed morning. The lows front moves across the
Eastern Bering through Wed afternoon. The low then moves to 200 nm
west of St Matthew at 985 mb Wed afternoon and exits into 
Northern Kamchatka by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040045-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040045-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040045-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040045-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

089 
FZAK52 PAFC 032357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041245-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 mb low 85 nm northwest of Nikolski will move to 450 nm 
northwest of Attu at 985 mb Wed night. The low will then drift west 
and start to weaken.

$$

PKZ150-041245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041245-
Bristol Bay-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kts out of bays and passes. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041245-
Unalaska Bay-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041245-
Adak to Kiska-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041245-
Kiska to Attu-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

168 
FZAK52 PAFC 041143
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-050030-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 130 nm northwest of St Paul will move to 400 nm 
northwest of St Paul at 985 mb Wed night. The low will then drift
west and start to weaken. Fri afternoon a 1002 mb low 100 nm 
south of Atka will move to 70 nm south of Nikolski Sat morning and
weaken to 1003 mb.

$$

PKZ150-050030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-050030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-050030-
Bristol Bay-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-050030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-050030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-050030-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-050030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-050030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-050030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-050030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-050030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-050030-
Adak to Kiska-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-050030-
Kiska to Attu-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-050030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-050030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-050030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-050030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt diminishing to
15 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt.
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

216 
FZAK52 PAFC 042334
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051245-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low 275 nm West of St Matthew Island moves to 90 nm 
Southwest of Attu at 1002 mb Fri afternoon. Its front dissipates 
over the Northern Bering Fri afternoon. A 1009 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 100 nm South of Seguam Island at 999 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-051245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-051245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-051245-
Bristol Bay-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-051245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-051245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-051245-
Unalaska Bay-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-051245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-051245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-051245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-051245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-051245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-051245-
Adak to Kiska-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-051245-
Kiska to Attu-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-051245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-051245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-051245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-051245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Very slow progress at the synoptic level continues to support
little change to sensible weather conditions, particularly over
interior Southcentral, where continued clear skies and warm
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s prevailed on Sunday
afternoon under a strengthening upper ridge. A stacked low
continues to spin in place to the south over the Gulf, with the
earlier shower activity around the center now diminishing. A deck
of marine stratus is beginning to creep back into the north Gulf
Coast, with areas of mist drifting into Cordova and around much of
Kodiak Island. Radiation fog has managed to form in patches along
the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley, although it will be
unlikely to last much after the sunrise this morning.

Things are beginning to quiet down somewhat for the Southwest
where a previously stalled front has now lifted north and out of
the Y-K Delta area as a warm front and as the ridge expands into
much of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Gusty southwest
winds continue along the Southwest Coast and through gaps along
the AKPen, with winds locally as high as gale strength anticipated
this morning just offshore along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. These
winds are courtesy of the tight pressure gradient between a low
moving into the far northern Bering and the surface ridge centered
over the northern Gulf. This same low has left another front
trailing in place along a north-south axis, roughly between St
Matthew Island and Atka Island underneath a 115 kt meridional jet
streak aloft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in still in good agreement at the large scale, though
have continued to struggle somewhat with the handling of a series
of easterly waves that will track into Southcentral over the next
several days around the stacked low stalled over the Gulf. Most
newer guidance now brings more of the energy and moisture
associated with the first couple waves moving through on Tuesday
and Wednesday a little farther inland than previous solutions.
This should help to decrease convection potential for areas that
cloud back up on Tuesday, while also casting doubt on some of the
very warm highs earlier anticipated for the Kenai Peninsula and
Mat-Su Valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday. Outside of these
continued discrepancies, the remainder of the forecast is on track
with overall good forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Winds will
become southerly by this evening, but should remain light and
generally 10 to 15 kts or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2...Mon
through Tue)...Another sunny day is in store for most areas
before the pattern begins to shift. An extension of the North
American Ridge will remain over the southern mainland today. This
will result in another day of mostly clear skies and above normal
temperatures. Inland areas will easily climb into the low 80s
again today with Anchorage likely to see another day of mid to
upper 70s. For coastal locations, some fog and stratus will hold
through the morning, before sea breezes develop this afternoon.

By tonight, the pattern change will start to unfold. The
vertically stacked low in the Gulf will drift a bit further north
through today. It will grab a hold of some convective energy
moving north through British Columbia and the Yukon. (In fact,
there has been lightning all through the night over those areas
associated with this wave.) It will then sling that energy from
northeast to southwest across the eastern Copper River Basin. Out
ahead of it late this afternoon into the early evening, there will
be a slight chance for thunderstorms to form, mainly along the
higher terrain of the Copper River Basin. Any convective potential
will be quickly taken over by steady, stratiform rain during the
overnight hours.

The biggest change to the forecast is that it now looks like Tue
will see more influence from the remnants of the easterly wave and
less influence from the ridging center in the interior. This will
likely result in a much cooler and cloudier day with a chance for
rain from Eureka down through the Mat Valley and into Anchorage.
The corridor of the most likely rain (and highest QPF amounts)
will stretch from the southern Copper River Basin down through the
Portage Valley it appears now. Over the northern areas of the
Susitna Valley and AK Range, there should still be enough heat and
instability on Tue afternoon/evening to produce a slight chance
for thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Most of Southwest has started clearing out as upper level ridging
continues building across the State. Clouds along the coastal
areas are the last to begin lifting, specifically areas west of
Bethel from Nunapitchuk to Toksook Bay, who are still seeing some
scattered low cloud decks. In addition to clearer skies, drier
conditions and warmer temperatures are expected to persist over
the next couple days, with warmest temperatures in the low 80's
across the Kuskokwim Valley. This pattern is expected to hold
through at least Wednesday before a front off a Bering low brings
unsettled weather back to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave trough pattern over the Bering includes two systems.
The first is a low in the northern Bering that is slowly tracking
towards eastern Russia. The second is a surface low at the base
of the trough that is quickly traveling northwards before merging
with the parent low. As a result, the front stalls over the
eastern Bering, producing small craft to gale force winds along
the Southwest Coast and through gaps and passes along the Southern
AKPen through early Tuesday morning. Additionally, persistent
rain showers are expected along the front. Following almost
immediately is a third system crossing into the central Bering
from the North Pacific by Tuesday afternoon. This system will keep
a pattern similar to the current one, with its front moving along
the eastern Bering. This system, however, looks to be a bit
stronger, with heavier rainfall and more widespread gale force
winds along the central and eastern Bering as well as through the
typical gaps and passes.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

A gale force low will be in place over the northern Bering Sea on
Wednesday, but will quickly exit to the far western Bering Sea
Wednesday night. Quieter conditions looks to prevail Thursday
through friday, though another low could move up from the Pacific
on Friday. Right now, it looks like this low will pass south of
Dutch Harbor, possibly bringing some small craft advisory winds
to the eastern Aleutians. Meanwhile, the extended stretch of
mostly benign conditions looks to continue for the Gulf of Alaska
coastal waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A pattern change is expected during the extended period across
Southcentral as upper level ridging retreats to the north while
the trough axis associated with an upper low moves in. This will
allow for an increase in cloud cover, cooler temperatures and a
higher likelihood of precipitation. The upper trough will continue
to linger over Southcentral and Southwest Alaska through Sunday
allowing for the cloudy and cool pattern to continue. Unsettled
weather will continue across the Bering/Aleutians as low pressure
remains over the area. Forecast confidence remains above average.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 165, 179, 180, 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED