Gale Warning 492, NWS Anchorage, AK

902 
FZAK62 PAFC 031146
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-040145-
346 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1000 mb low near 50N 170W moves to 58N 174W at 991 mb by Wed 
morning. The lows front moves across the Eastern Bering through 
Wed afternoon. The low then moves to 60N 179W at 985 mb Wed 
afternoon and exits into Northern Kamchatka by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-040145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-040145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...SW wind up to 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-040145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-040145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

076 
FZAK62 PAFC 032352
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041345-
352 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 998 mb low near 54N 171W will move to 60N 167E at 985 mb Wed 
night. The low will then drift west and start to weaken.

$$

PKZ411-041345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...N to E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

312 
FZAK62 PAFC 041139
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050030-
339 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low near 59N 175W will move to 61N 177E at 985 mb Wed 
night. The low will then drift west and start to weaken. Fri 
afternoon a 1002 mb low at 51N 173W will move to 52N 167W Sat
morning and weaken to 1003 mb.

$$

PKZ411-050030-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050030-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Very slow progress at the synoptic level continues to support
little change to sensible weather conditions, particularly over
interior Southcentral, where continued clear skies and warm
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s prevailed on Sunday
afternoon under a strengthening upper ridge. A stacked low
continues to spin in place to the south over the Gulf, with the
earlier shower activity around the center now diminishing. A deck
of marine stratus is beginning to creep back into the north Gulf
Coast, with areas of mist drifting into Cordova and around much of
Kodiak Island. Radiation fog has managed to form in patches along
the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley, although it will be
unlikely to last much after the sunrise this morning.

Things are beginning to quiet down somewhat for the Southwest
where a previously stalled front has now lifted north and out of
the Y-K Delta area as a warm front and as the ridge expands into
much of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Gusty southwest
winds continue along the Southwest Coast and through gaps along
the AKPen, with winds locally as high as gale strength anticipated
this morning just offshore along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. These
winds are courtesy of the tight pressure gradient between a low
moving into the far northern Bering and the surface ridge centered
over the northern Gulf. This same low has left another front
trailing in place along a north-south axis, roughly between St
Matthew Island and Atka Island underneath a 115 kt meridional jet
streak aloft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in still in good agreement at the large scale, though
have continued to struggle somewhat with the handling of a series
of easterly waves that will track into Southcentral over the next
several days around the stacked low stalled over the Gulf. Most
newer guidance now brings more of the energy and moisture
associated with the first couple waves moving through on Tuesday
and Wednesday a little farther inland than previous solutions.
This should help to decrease convection potential for areas that
cloud back up on Tuesday, while also casting doubt on some of the
very warm highs earlier anticipated for the Kenai Peninsula and
Mat-Su Valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday. Outside of these
continued discrepancies, the remainder of the forecast is on track
with overall good forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Winds will
become southerly by this evening, but should remain light and
generally 10 to 15 kts or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2...Mon
through Tue)...Another sunny day is in store for most areas
before the pattern begins to shift. An extension of the North
American Ridge will remain over the southern mainland today. This
will result in another day of mostly clear skies and above normal
temperatures. Inland areas will easily climb into the low 80s
again today with Anchorage likely to see another day of mid to
upper 70s. For coastal locations, some fog and stratus will hold
through the morning, before sea breezes develop this afternoon.

By tonight, the pattern change will start to unfold. The
vertically stacked low in the Gulf will drift a bit further north
through today. It will grab a hold of some convective energy
moving north through British Columbia and the Yukon. (In fact,
there has been lightning all through the night over those areas
associated with this wave.) It will then sling that energy from
northeast to southwest across the eastern Copper River Basin. Out
ahead of it late this afternoon into the early evening, there will
be a slight chance for thunderstorms to form, mainly along the
higher terrain of the Copper River Basin. Any convective potential
will be quickly taken over by steady, stratiform rain during the
overnight hours.

The biggest change to the forecast is that it now looks like Tue
will see more influence from the remnants of the easterly wave and
less influence from the ridging center in the interior. This will
likely result in a much cooler and cloudier day with a chance for
rain from Eureka down through the Mat Valley and into Anchorage.
The corridor of the most likely rain (and highest QPF amounts)
will stretch from the southern Copper River Basin down through the
Portage Valley it appears now. Over the northern areas of the
Susitna Valley and AK Range, there should still be enough heat and
instability on Tue afternoon/evening to produce a slight chance
for thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Most of Southwest has started clearing out as upper level ridging
continues building across the State. Clouds along the coastal
areas are the last to begin lifting, specifically areas west of
Bethel from Nunapitchuk to Toksook Bay, who are still seeing some
scattered low cloud decks. In addition to clearer skies, drier
conditions and warmer temperatures are expected to persist over
the next couple days, with warmest temperatures in the low 80's
across the Kuskokwim Valley. This pattern is expected to hold
through at least Wednesday before a front off a Bering low brings
unsettled weather back to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave trough pattern over the Bering includes two systems.
The first is a low in the northern Bering that is slowly tracking
towards eastern Russia. The second is a surface low at the base
of the trough that is quickly traveling northwards before merging
with the parent low. As a result, the front stalls over the
eastern Bering, producing small craft to gale force winds along
the Southwest Coast and through gaps and passes along the Southern
AKPen through early Tuesday morning. Additionally, persistent
rain showers are expected along the front. Following almost
immediately is a third system crossing into the central Bering
from the North Pacific by Tuesday afternoon. This system will keep
a pattern similar to the current one, with its front moving along
the eastern Bering. This system, however, looks to be a bit
stronger, with heavier rainfall and more widespread gale force
winds along the central and eastern Bering as well as through the
typical gaps and passes.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

A gale force low will be in place over the northern Bering Sea on
Wednesday, but will quickly exit to the far western Bering Sea
Wednesday night. Quieter conditions looks to prevail Thursday
through friday, though another low could move up from the Pacific
on Friday. Right now, it looks like this low will pass south of
Dutch Harbor, possibly bringing some small craft advisory winds
to the eastern Aleutians. Meanwhile, the extended stretch of
mostly benign conditions looks to continue for the Gulf of Alaska
coastal waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A pattern change is expected during the extended period across
Southcentral as upper level ridging retreats to the north while
the trough axis associated with an upper low moves in. This will
allow for an increase in cloud cover, cooler temperatures and a
higher likelihood of precipitation. The upper trough will continue
to linger over Southcentral and Southwest Alaska through Sunday
allowing for the cloudy and cool pattern to continue. Unsettled
weather will continue across the Bering/Aleutians as low pressure
remains over the area. Forecast confidence remains above average.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 165, 179, 180, 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED