Small Craft Advisory 523, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK52 PAFC 021133
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030015-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA 
WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 mb low 60 nm northwest of Cold Bay lifts northward and
dissipates Fri morning. A 996 mb low 230 nm north of Shemya Fri
morning moves 100 nm north of Shemya at 1003 mb Fri night. The low 
then remains nearly stationary and weakens to 1003 mb Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-030015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030015-
Bristol Bay-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030015-
Unalaska Bay-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030015-
Adak to Kiska-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030015-
Kiska to Attu-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 AM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

922 
FZAK52 PAFC 022331
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031300-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 165 nm northeast of Attu Island moves to 100 nm 
northeast of Attu Island at 1003 mb Sat morning and becomes nearly
stationary through Sunday.

$$

PKZ150-031300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031300-
Bristol Bay-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031300-
Unalaska Bay-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031300-
Adak to Kiska-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031300-
Kiska to Attu-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 PM AKDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge axis extends over the eastern half of the state from the
Copper River Basin southward over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Low
level stratus and fog remains trapped under the ridge, especially
across parts of the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a broad area
of low pressure is centered south of the central Aleutians. Its
associated front is lifting inland over Southwest with showers
spreading northward along the coast. High level clouds are slowly
approaching Southcentral this morning as the front gradually lifts
into the northern Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to remain in great synoptic agreement, leading to high
forecast confidence through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Gusty
southeasterly winds will develop late this afternoon/evening
through Turnagain Arm. Expect these winds to arrive over the
terminal and persist overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday evening)...

Most of Southcentral will get to endure one more gorgeous day with
plentiful sunshine and very warm temperatures, especially in the
Copper River Basin where Gulkana may reach 80 degrees. Elsewhere,
mostly expect 70s for the Mat-Su Valleys and parts of the
Anchorage Bowl with 60s closer to the Inlet. Sea breezes are also
expected for the typical local effect areas today.

High clouds in association with a frontal system will continue
moving northward this morning, therefore, expect increasing clouds
especially across the Kenai Peninsula. Clouds will continue
moving northward overspreading the Anchorage Bowl area and Mat-Su
Valleys later this afternoon. This frontal system is expected to
bring around approximately an inch of rain to Kodiak City today
along with increasing winds (~15-20 mph for Kodiak). Small craft
winds are expected for the marine waters southeast of Kodiak
Island today through Thursday night. As this front continues
moving northward, expect the pressure gradient to build against
the Chugach Mountains. Therefore, as the interior of the Susitna
Valley heats up this afternoon and the pressure gradient building
with an upper level piece of energy moving overhead, this will
send the Turnagain Arm wind into West Anchorage this evening
through the overnight hours. Current thinking is that these winds
will drift south and remain over Turnagain Arm for Friday before
the next upper level disturbance moves through bringing these
winds back into West Anchorage. Think winds may gust as high as 25
mph with the first round tonight with gusts as high as 35 mph
Friday evening. Also, expect the Knik River Valley wind to
increase this evening and continue through Thursday night. The
Copper River Valley wind is also expected to increase this
afternoon and is expected to continue through Saturday morning.
The strongest Copper River wind is expected during the day on
Friday with gusts as high as 30 mph possible.

Saturday, much of Southcentral will remain under southwesterly
flow, therefore, expect cool, cloudy, and showery conditions to
continue through at least the first part of the 4th of July
holiday weekend. Temperatures for most areas Saturday will mostly
be in the upper 50s to low 60s for many areas with the Copper
River Basin having the best chance of seeing a decent amount of
sunshine to have temperatures climb into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A front from a large low over the Bering is moving into the coast
this morning. Rain is overspreading much of the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay. The front will drift across the region through
Friday, though largely dissipate as its own unique entity by late
Friday. Very gusty winds will be the primary impact across
Southwest Alaska today through Friday. Gusts along the coast
today and in the gaps through Friday will be increasing into the
45 to 55 mph range in the windiest locations.

One to three inches of rain are likely through Friday along the
east facing slopes of the Kuskokwim Mountains, while the downslope
areas along the west facing slopes will pick up fractions of an
inch of rain in the same time period.

By Saturday, the broad flow will turn more southwesterly
throughout the atmosphere, such that when disturbances move
through, all areas pick up some light rain. Thus, most areas from
here on out can expect cloudy skies and at least chances of rain
through Saturday.

Temperatures will be at or below normal as the sun will be
shrouded in cloud cover nearly everywhere right through the 4th of
July weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A large vertically stacked low southwest of Nikolski this morning
will move quickly eastward along the south side of the Aleutians
and degenerate into a front/trough over the Alaska Peninsula and
eastern Bering by Friday morning. Associated steady rain is
expected through Unalaska later this morning into this afternoon,
and along the AKPEN this evening through tonight. The bulk of the
remaining energy with the low will phase with another weak trough
into the western Bering Friday morning. The large, but weak low
will move to the Western Aleutians and stall there through
Saturday. Cloudy skies, occasional showers, but overall general
light winds are expected over much of the Bering by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Generally, expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft
for the Day 3 through 5 period. The only exception is the
possibility for a stronger low to track from the North Pacific
into the Bering Sea on Sunday. This low may have the potential to
produce gale-force winds near the eastern Aleutians and the
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Broad longwave troughing across the Bering Sea will be the
dominant pattern through the long term, with southwest flow over
the mainland favoring a cool, wet Independence Day weekend. On
Saturday, there is good model agreement that a shortwave trough
will be located over Southwest and Southcentral Alaska, pushing
northeast and bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation along
with it. Despite models diverging in the timing and location of
specific features, similar conditions will prevail beyond Saturday
as several shortwaves rotate through the southern side of the
longwave trough. Periods of wet, unsettled weather should be
expected with each one as they pass, with brief respites from the
rain in between.

With this pattern in place, a developing surface cyclone in the
North Pacific may be drawn up into the Bering early next week. The
GFS, which has depicted deeper lows in recent weeks that have
tended to verify, suggests the possibility of gale force winds
through the Aleutians. The Canadian and ECMWF models show a
weaker low, but given the recent performance of the GFS, this
feature is worth watching. On Tuesday, the longwave trough axis
begins to shift eastward into mainland Alaska, keeping
temperatures cool and bringing further precipitation.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF