Small Craft Advisory 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

993 
FZAK52 PAFC 232341
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-241215-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low 35 nm southeast of Adak moves to 250 nm northeast of 
Shemya at 989 mb Mon afternoon and then becomes nearly stationary 
through Tue afternoon. A 991 mb low 175 nm south of Adak Tue morning
will move to 125 nm east of Atka at 994 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-241215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-241215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 13 ft except 8 ft from the Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-241215-
Bristol Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-241215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-241215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-241215-
Unalaska Bay-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-241215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-241215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-241215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-241215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-241215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-241215-
Adak to Kiska-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-241215-
Kiska to Attu-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
 Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-241215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-241215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-241215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-241215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 PM AKDT Sun May 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

681 
FZAK52 PAFC 241153
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-250045-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low 150 nm north of Adak moves to 200 nm north of Attu 
at 990 mb Tue morning and then departs to the east. A 994 mb low 
50 nm east of Atka moves to 50 nm west of St. Paul at 999 mb by 
Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-250045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-250045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-250045-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-250045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-250045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-250045-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt by afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-250045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-250045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt by afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-250045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-250045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming variable at 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-250045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-250045-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-250045-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-250045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-250045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-250045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-250045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

223 
FZAK52 PAFC 242353
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-251215-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

$$

PKZ150-251215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-251215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-251215-
Bristol Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-251215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-251215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-251215-
Unalaska Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-251215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-251215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-251215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-251215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-251215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-251215-
Adak to Kiska-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-251215-
Kiska to Attu-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-251215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-251215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-251215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-251215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 PM AKDT Mon May 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT Sat May 22 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level shortwave is nearly stationary across the northern
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin this afternoon. A large
longwave ridge is building into Southwest Alaska, whose axis is
over the eastern Bering and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Further
west, a large upper level low and nearby associated surface low
are centered over the Western Aleutians about halfway between
Shemya and Adak.

Skies have begun to slowly clear out across southern mainland
Alaska this afternoon, with a large area of clear skies noted on
satellite imagery across Bristol Bay and expanding over Cook
Inlet. much of the rest of the area has at least broken cloud
cover. Temperatures are once again holding largely in the 50s in
most areas, with a few 40s noted where the clouds are their
thickest.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement is good through Monday afternoon. The position of
the center of the low out over the western Bering deviates by
Monday morning, but the leading front and the surface pressure
fields across mainland Alaska are in excellent agreement. Forecast
confidence is high. Some forecast challenges today include the
strength of the outflow winds Sunday and Sunday night through
Seward, Whittier, and Turnagain Arm, by far the warmest
temperatures of the season so far for most areas, and how much any
fire weather concerns increase this upcoming week across interior
areas with sunny and locally breezy conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. West to southwest winds may
gust to 15 kt at times this afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds
will calm down tonight and will remain light and variable through
Sunday morning and then shift north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure moving into the region will allow for sunny skies,
warm temperatures and lower relative humidity for the next 3
days. Due to the current synoptic pattern with higher pressure
expected in the Alaskan Interior with lower pressure over the Gulf
of Alaska and North Pacific, dry offshore flow will persist and
aid to these warmer temperatures and drier conditions. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be on Tuesday afternoon in the
Copper Basin as a shortwave trough while conditions remain
unstable as 200 J/kg of CAPE with negative LI values are
expected. Due to the northerly flow the greatest chance for
thunderstorms within the Copper Basin on Tuesday afternoon will be
along the southern periphery as these northerly winds will help
orographically lift the air and enhance the potential for
convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern features a high amplitude ridge axis over
the Eastern Bering and SW Alaska this forecast period. Mostly
cloudy skies will continue near the coast this afternoon as a
ridge approaches from the west. With widespread subsidence in
place, a dry, warming trend is expected into early next week.
Offshore flow Sunday and Monday will lead to mostly sunny skies.
Portions of the interior like Sleetmute will reach to the 70F
benchmark.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A 985 mb surface low is currently over the western Aleutians.
Looking at satellite imagery (CIMSS MIMIC) there is sub tropical
moisture embedded in this system. Its associated front is slowly
tracking eastward across the Chain and will bring rains and gusty
southerly winds through the weekend. An upper level ridge over
Southwest Alaska will cause this system to stall and gradually
weaken over the Alaska Peninsula on Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Tuesday through Thursday)...

A North Pacific low moves over the Western Aleutians with gale
force winds for Thursday. In the East, a slack gradient brings
light winds over the Gulf through Thursday.

&&

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)

Global ensemble guidance remains in relatively good agreement in
the long term longwave pattern. On Wednesday a broad longwave
trough is expected over the Bering Sea with a high amplitude ridge
centered over central to western Alaska. This pattern indicates
unsettled weather for the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska while
the interior and Southcentral should remain sunny, warm and dry.
The primary difference amongst the ensemble guidance is the speed
at which the Bering trough and primary shortwave break down the
ridge over the interior. The speed at which this occurs will
determine the transition of a sunny dry pattern over the mainland
to cloudy and wetter weather, similar to what we have observed
this week. The GEFS ensemble mean is the quickest to break down
the ridge, returning mainland Alaska to southwesterly flow aloft
Wednesday afternoon, while the Canadian ensemble mean keeps the
ridge through midday Thursday. The ECMWF takes a middle ground
approach between the two. In comparison to yesterday's model runs,
all the ensemble means have shifted later in the week for the
ridge breaking down, which means sunnier weather later into the
week for Southcentral should these solutions hold.

The operational run of the GFS differs considerably from the
ensemble means by keeping the ridge over the interior through the
start of the weekend with the primary energy from the Bering
trough swinging south of the state. The Canadian solution is
similar to the ensembles, swinging a front into Southwest
Wednesday and into Southcentral Thursday. In summary, the bulk of
the deterministic and ensemble solutions yield the return of
overcast and rainy weather for the latter half of the week,
however; models tend to break down ridges too quickly, so the
drier GFS solution can’t be totally ruled out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 170 172-176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CJ