Small Craft Advisory 1051, NWS Anchorage, AK

932 
FZAK52 PAFC 310025
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-311345-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low at 278 nm northeast of Adak Thursday afternoon moves 
over the Alaska Peninsula Friday afternoon at 992 mb and exits the 
Bering Friday night. Its associated front extends across the Bering 
Thursday through Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure develops over 
the central Bering Saturday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-311345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 60 kt out of bays and passes after midnight. Seas 14 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 65 kt. Gusts to 80 kt out of bays and
passes. Seas 23 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 60 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-311345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind
30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays
and passes after midnight. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-311345-
Bristol Bay-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-311345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt except SW 25 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW wind 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-311345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-311345-
Unalaska Bay-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 13 ft in
the afternoon. Rain showers with snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-311345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-311345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-311345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-311345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 25 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-311345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-311345-
Adak to Kiska-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-311345-
Kiska to Attu-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft building to 28 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-311345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-311345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N of Cape Newenham, E wind 30 kt. S of Cape Newenham, S 
wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-311345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-311345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
325 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strengthening low approaching the Western and Central Aleutians
has a leading warm front extending over much of the rest of the
Aleutians, moving over the Pribilofs, and extends a good way up
the AKPEN as well. Precipitation extends across the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, and is encroaching into the coast of Southwest
Alaska. Temperatures over Southwest Alaska are just a few degrees
below freezing, right around 30 degrees, but much of the sounding
gets cooler with height, unlike previous days. Thus, snow should
be a prominent precipitation type for most areas, though some rain
certainly could mix in, especially the further south you go.

Meanwhile over Southcentral, clouds are beginning to try to squeak
through the Alaska Range from that aforementioned frontal system
out west, though a large share of that cloud cover remains trapped
on the west side of the mountains, making for a rare, but
beautiful mostly sunny day for much of the mainland. Clouds have
overspread the Kodiak area however. Temperatures are a bit milder
as a southerly wind has developed along Cook Inlet, with Anchorage
down through Homer reporting above freezing temperatures.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement through Friday afternoon.
This includes some of the usual finer points of when snow
associated with the next storm begins first in Southwest Alaska
and then later into Southcentral. Snowfall amounts across the area
are also fairly consistent. Thus forecast confidence is high. A
few points of uncertainty include where the rain/snow line will
set up near the coast, and where any deformation zones set up near
Anchorage. Looking ahead there is also unanimous agreement that
the full wrath of the Arctic plunges back into southern Alaska to
start the New Year, and really through the first week of the
month, which will include a return to well-below normal
temperatures, strong winds through the usual gaps, and widespread
heavy freezing spray.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and southerly winds around 10 kt will
persist into this evening. The winds will subside this evening.
The next round of snow and MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
starting Thursday night and continuing through the day on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3:
Tonight through Saturday night)...

A broad ridge of high pressure will briefly attempt to rebuild
across Southcentral with the departure of an upper-level
disturbance into Yukon and British Columbia this evening. Despite
the threat for freezing rain during the overnight hours Tuesday
night, southerly winds managed to make their way into the
Anchorage Bowl, keeping many locations at or even just above
freezing. This diminished the overall impacts and the Wednesday
morning commute into Anchorage was largely uneventful.
Subsequently, the warm air mass in place over Southcentral also
remains for the most part with the exceptions existing over the
northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. For Wednesday
night into early Thursday generally mild conditions are forecast
with mild winds and mostly clear skies. A small shortwave trough
will skirt across the Alaska Peninsula tonight and over Kodiak
Island through early Thursday morning. Temperatures are well above
freezing across Kodiak Island currently and will likely remain
above freezing tonight with little in the way of cold air
advection anticipated. As a result, any initial snow this evening
will transition cleanly to all rain by or before midnight. Models
are in good agreement with keeping the wave of low pressure south
of the Kenai Peninsula, and the rest of Southcentral, and low
pressure should exit the Gulf into the North Pacific Thursday
morning with no other impacts.

The next storm system remains forecast to arrive into
Southcentral early Friday morning, first overspreading Kodiak
Island and then expanding northeastward into Prince William Sound
Friday night. This next system, while large in scale, with a front
forecast to extend from the Bering, through Southcentral, into
the Panhandle, will move over Southcentral with very little in the
way of upper-level support. As such, snowfall is expected to be
rather light, and accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches despite
the duration of snow potentially lingering for 24 hours. The
lower elevations are forecast to receive lesser snow amounts while
lingering moisture and upslope flow over the mountains could
promote higher amounts of 8+ inches over the eastern mountain
faces of the Kenai Peninsula.

A return to colder conditions is expected on Saturday as an
arctic air mass spills southward out of northern Alaska. These
temperatures will follow the backside of a trough on Friday night.
The usual strong outflow winds for the bays and passes can be
expected as the denser and colder air finds its way through the
valleys and into the northern Gulf over the weekend. This will
also see a returning threat for heavy freezing spray.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A weakening front from the eastern Bering sits across Bristol Bay
and the Alaska Peninsula this evening. This front is expected to
nudge slowly northward and produce light snow over mainly the
southern portions of Bristol Bay, with minimal accumulations
expected along the coast from Togiak to King Salmon and south
into the northern Alaska Peninsula before snowfall tapers off
later tonight.

Looking into Thursday, a second and more significant snow and
possibly mixed precipitation event begins to materialize as a
potent low moves into the central Bering. Deep warm advection
ahead of the low will essentially reinvigorate the initial frontal
axis across the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula and lift
north into the Southwest coast midday Thursday. Light to moderate
snowfall will overspread much of the region from southwest to
northeast as the front advances, with new snowfall totals of 2 to
4 inches possible for Bristol Bay through late Thursday night
north of King Salmon and higher totals of 4 to 6 inches further
west in the Kuskokwim Delta. Northeasterly winds are also expected
to develop along the front across the Delta which will lead to blowing
snow and decreased visibility as the front moves through Thursday
into Friday morning. See the Winter Weather Advisory issued for
the Kuskokwim Delta for more details.

Farther south, some concerns remain for return of a wintry mix of
precipitation, with potential for a weak nose of warm air aloft
to intrude over the cool air mass in place and allow for a period
of snow mixing with freezing rain and sleet. This is most likely
to occur with the initial band of frontal precip as it crosses
over the northern Alaska Peninsula between Pilot Point and King
Salmon on Thursday morning before winds behind the front veer from
easterly to southerly and help warm temperatures above freezing
at ground level.

Behind the front, precipitation tapers off across Southwest Alaska
as it turns showery and becomes scattered. The low in the central
Bering moves east and reaches the Alaska Peninsula by Friday
night. Cold, Arctic air wrapping in behind the low will begin to shut
off the remaining precipitation from west to east Friday
afternoon, reaching the Aleutian Range by Friday night. Strong
cold advection will induce strong winds out of gaps along the
Alaska Peninsula beginning early Saturday morning. The strength of
this Arctic push will drive gusty storm force to potentially
hurricane force winds on the southern side of the AKPEN through
the day Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A weakening frontal system continues to bring a mix of rain and
snow across the eastern Bering and Aleutians through tonight. This
front will be reinforced as a developing low pressure system crosses
the western Aleutians into the Bering tonight and brings a surge
of tropical moisture ahead of it. Rain showers across the
Aleutians and up into the Pribilofs continue through much of
Thursday. Polar air will wrap around the low as the low matures
and shifts into the eastern Bering, helping to support northwest
winds up to storm force and seas building to near 30 ft along
parts of the western and central Aleutians by Thursday afternoon.
Heavy freezing spray also makes its return on northeast winds
close to storm force and cooling temperatures in the northern
Bering. Strong northwesterly gap winds to gale force with storm
force gusts possible will also be a concern through the western
Aleutians in the lee of the low as it crosses the Alaska Peninsula
into the western Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Although, these
winds are not expected to have the same magnitude of cold air
advection bolstering them as will be seen on the southern side of
the AKPEN on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering...A low that tracks across the AKPEN Friday will bring
northerly winds across the Central and Eastern Bering Saturday.
Winds will peak at high-end gales on the backside of the low. As
the low exits into the Gulf, storm- force gap winds and heavy
freezing spray are possible south of the AKPEN Saturday through
early Sunday. In the Western Bering, a strong front will bring
southerly gales and areas of storm-force winds Saturday through
Sunday. Seas will be mostly 8-15 ft except 15-25 ft where gales
are expected. A ridge of high pressure will build over the Bering
Sunday night through Monday.

Gulf of Alaska...Gusty outflow winds intensify to gales early
Saturday and persist through Sunday, with storm-force winds likely
through Kamishak Gap. Heavy freezing spray is possible with these
strong and cold outflow winds that will continue through Monday.
Seas will increase to 15-25 ft Saturday though Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An upper-level ridge in the Bering moves eastward into Alaska
through Tuesday, transitioning the weather towards cold and mostly
dry conditions. As a surface low, developed by an upper-level
trough located over Alaska, moves out of the Gulf through
Saturday, snow will slowly taper off. Cold, northerly gap winds
out of the AKPEN and northern Gulf Coast will continue through
Monday due to high pressure over the interior and ridging in the
Eastern Bering. Cold air advection and clearer skies at night will
allow temperatures to drop below negative during the weekend.

Behind the upper-level ridge, a strong warm front brings rain and
southerly winds as it tracks across the Aleutians through
Tuesday. Some uncertainty remains with how quickly the front will
move east. However, temperatures warm by Tuesday/Wednesday across
Southwest as the front approaches.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 175-177 185.
		 Gale Warning: 155 165 170 172-174 178 180 181 411-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
MARINE/LONG TERM...NS