Small Craft Advisory 1050, NWS Anchorage, AK

599 
FZAK51 PAFC 310058
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-311415-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 mb low 278 nm southeast of Middleton Island develops Thursday
afternoon, moves southeastward along the Gulf coast through 
Friday afternoon. A 986 mb low at 9 nm northeast of Middleton
Island develops Friday afternoon and moves to 178 nm southeast of
Middleton Island Saturday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-311415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-311415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-311415-
Resurrection Bay-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-311415-
Prince William Sound-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy Freezing spray
Sunday.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-311415-
Port Valdez-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-311415-
Valdez Narrows-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-311415-
Valdez Arm-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ129-311415-
Passage Canal-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray
after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Heavy Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-311415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT...NW wind 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-311415-
Barren Islands East-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-311415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to NW 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy Freezing spray
Sunday.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-311415-
Chiniak Bay-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-311415-
Marmot Bay-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray Sunday.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-311415-
Shelikof Strait-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-311415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-311415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.  Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after
midnight.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-311415-
Kachemak Bay-
358 PM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Freezing spray Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray
Sunday.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

493 
FZAK51 PAFC 311321
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010200-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 mb low 120 nm south of Seward moves to 80 nm south of Cordova 
at 976 mb Friday night. The low then remains stationary near Prince 
William Sound and weakens Saturday evening. A 975 mb low develops 30 
nm southwest of Middleton Island Saturday morning and moves to 200 nm
east of Kodiak Saturday evening.

$$

PKZ119-010200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010200-
Resurrection Bay-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010200-
Prince William Sound-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010200-
Port Valdez-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010200-
Valdez Narrows-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010200-
Valdez Arm-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010200-
Passage Canal-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 60 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010200-
Barren Islands East-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 55 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray after
midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010200-
Chiniak Bay-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010200-
Marmot Bay-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Heavy freezing spray after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010200-
Shelikof Strait-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after
midnight.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 40 kt.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-010200-
Kachemak Bay-
421 AM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strengthening low approaching the Western and Central Aleutians
has a leading warm front extending over much of the rest of the
Aleutians, moving over the Pribilofs, and extends a good way up
the AKPEN as well. Precipitation extends across the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, and is encroaching into the coast of Southwest
Alaska. Temperatures over Southwest Alaska are just a few degrees
below freezing, right around 30 degrees, but much of the sounding
gets cooler with height, unlike previous days. Thus, snow should
be a prominent precipitation type for most areas, though some rain
certainly could mix in, especially the further south you go.

Meanwhile over Southcentral, clouds are beginning to try to squeak
through the Alaska Range from that aforementioned frontal system
out west, though a large share of that cloud cover remains trapped
on the west side of the mountains, making for a rare, but
beautiful mostly sunny day for much of the mainland. Clouds have
overspread the Kodiak area however. Temperatures are a bit milder
as a southerly wind has developed along Cook Inlet, with Anchorage
down through Homer reporting above freezing temperatures.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement through Friday afternoon.
This includes some of the usual finer points of when snow
associated with the next storm begins first in Southwest Alaska
and then later into Southcentral. Snowfall amounts across the area
are also fairly consistent. Thus forecast confidence is high. A
few points of uncertainty include where the rain/snow line will
set up near the coast, and where any deformation zones set up near
Anchorage. Looking ahead there is also unanimous agreement that
the full wrath of the Arctic plunges back into southern Alaska to
start the New Year, and really through the first week of the
month, which will include a return to well-below normal
temperatures, strong winds through the usual gaps, and widespread
heavy freezing spray.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and southerly winds around 10 kt will
persist into this evening. The winds will subside this evening.
The next round of snow and MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
starting Thursday night and continuing through the day on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3:
Tonight through Saturday night)...

A broad ridge of high pressure will briefly attempt to rebuild
across Southcentral with the departure of an upper-level
disturbance into Yukon and British Columbia this evening. Despite
the threat for freezing rain during the overnight hours Tuesday
night, southerly winds managed to make their way into the
Anchorage Bowl, keeping many locations at or even just above
freezing. This diminished the overall impacts and the Wednesday
morning commute into Anchorage was largely uneventful.
Subsequently, the warm air mass in place over Southcentral also
remains for the most part with the exceptions existing over the
northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. For Wednesday
night into early Thursday generally mild conditions are forecast
with mild winds and mostly clear skies. A small shortwave trough
will skirt across the Alaska Peninsula tonight and over Kodiak
Island through early Thursday morning. Temperatures are well above
freezing across Kodiak Island currently and will likely remain
above freezing tonight with little in the way of cold air
advection anticipated. As a result, any initial snow this evening
will transition cleanly to all rain by or before midnight. Models
are in good agreement with keeping the wave of low pressure south
of the Kenai Peninsula, and the rest of Southcentral, and low
pressure should exit the Gulf into the North Pacific Thursday
morning with no other impacts.

The next storm system remains forecast to arrive into
Southcentral early Friday morning, first overspreading Kodiak
Island and then expanding northeastward into Prince William Sound
Friday night. This next system, while large in scale, with a front
forecast to extend from the Bering, through Southcentral, into
the Panhandle, will move over Southcentral with very little in the
way of upper-level support. As such, snowfall is expected to be
rather light, and accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches despite
the duration of snow potentially lingering for 24 hours. The
lower elevations are forecast to receive lesser snow amounts while
lingering moisture and upslope flow over the mountains could
promote higher amounts of 8+ inches over the eastern mountain
faces of the Kenai Peninsula.

A return to colder conditions is expected on Saturday as an
arctic air mass spills southward out of northern Alaska. These
temperatures will follow the backside of a trough on Friday night.
The usual strong outflow winds for the bays and passes can be
expected as the denser and colder air finds its way through the
valleys and into the northern Gulf over the weekend. This will
also see a returning threat for heavy freezing spray.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A weakening front from the eastern Bering sits across Bristol Bay
and the Alaska Peninsula this evening. This front is expected to
nudge slowly northward and produce light snow over mainly the
southern portions of Bristol Bay, with minimal accumulations
expected along the coast from Togiak to King Salmon and south
into the northern Alaska Peninsula before snowfall tapers off
later tonight.

Looking into Thursday, a second and more significant snow and
possibly mixed precipitation event begins to materialize as a
potent low moves into the central Bering. Deep warm advection
ahead of the low will essentially reinvigorate the initial frontal
axis across the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula and lift
north into the Southwest coast midday Thursday. Light to moderate
snowfall will overspread much of the region from southwest to
northeast as the front advances, with new snowfall totals of 2 to
4 inches possible for Bristol Bay through late Thursday night
north of King Salmon and higher totals of 4 to 6 inches further
west in the Kuskokwim Delta. Northeasterly winds are also expected
to develop along the front across the Delta which will lead to blowing
snow and decreased visibility as the front moves through Thursday
into Friday morning. See the Winter Weather Advisory issued for
the Kuskokwim Delta for more details.

Farther south, some concerns remain for return of a wintry mix of
precipitation, with potential for a weak nose of warm air aloft
to intrude over the cool air mass in place and allow for a period
of snow mixing with freezing rain and sleet. This is most likely
to occur with the initial band of frontal precip as it crosses
over the northern Alaska Peninsula between Pilot Point and King
Salmon on Thursday morning before winds behind the front veer from
easterly to southerly and help warm temperatures above freezing
at ground level.

Behind the front, precipitation tapers off across Southwest Alaska
as it turns showery and becomes scattered. The low in the central
Bering moves east and reaches the Alaska Peninsula by Friday
night. Cold, Arctic air wrapping in behind the low will begin to shut
off the remaining precipitation from west to east Friday
afternoon, reaching the Aleutian Range by Friday night. Strong
cold advection will induce strong winds out of gaps along the
Alaska Peninsula beginning early Saturday morning. The strength of
this Arctic push will drive gusty storm force to potentially
hurricane force winds on the southern side of the AKPEN through
the day Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A weakening frontal system continues to bring a mix of rain and
snow across the eastern Bering and Aleutians through tonight. This
front will be reinforced as a developing low pressure system crosses
the western Aleutians into the Bering tonight and brings a surge
of tropical moisture ahead of it. Rain showers across the
Aleutians and up into the Pribilofs continue through much of
Thursday. Polar air will wrap around the low as the low matures
and shifts into the eastern Bering, helping to support northwest
winds up to storm force and seas building to near 30 ft along
parts of the western and central Aleutians by Thursday afternoon.
Heavy freezing spray also makes its return on northeast winds
close to storm force and cooling temperatures in the northern
Bering. Strong northwesterly gap winds to gale force with storm
force gusts possible will also be a concern through the western
Aleutians in the lee of the low as it crosses the Alaska Peninsula
into the western Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Although, these
winds are not expected to have the same magnitude of cold air
advection bolstering them as will be seen on the southern side of
the AKPEN on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering...A low that tracks across the AKPEN Friday will bring
northerly winds across the Central and Eastern Bering Saturday.
Winds will peak at high-end gales on the backside of the low. As
the low exits into the Gulf, storm- force gap winds and heavy
freezing spray are possible south of the AKPEN Saturday through
early Sunday. In the Western Bering, a strong front will bring
southerly gales and areas of storm-force winds Saturday through
Sunday. Seas will be mostly 8-15 ft except 15-25 ft where gales
are expected. A ridge of high pressure will build over the Bering
Sunday night through Monday.

Gulf of Alaska...Gusty outflow winds intensify to gales early
Saturday and persist through Sunday, with storm-force winds likely
through Kamishak Gap. Heavy freezing spray is possible with these
strong and cold outflow winds that will continue through Monday.
Seas will increase to 15-25 ft Saturday though Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An upper-level ridge in the Bering moves eastward into Alaska
through Tuesday, transitioning the weather towards cold and mostly
dry conditions. As a surface low, developed by an upper-level
trough located over Alaska, moves out of the Gulf through
Saturday, snow will slowly taper off. Cold, northerly gap winds
out of the AKPEN and northern Gulf Coast will continue through
Monday due to high pressure over the interior and ridging in the
Eastern Bering. Cold air advection and clearer skies at night will
allow temperatures to drop below negative during the weekend.

Behind the upper-level ridge, a strong warm front brings rain and
southerly winds as it tracks across the Aleutians through
Tuesday. Some uncertainty remains with how quickly the front will
move east. However, temperatures warm by Tuesday/Wednesday across
Southwest as the front approaches.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 175-177 185.
		 Gale Warning: 155 165 170 172-174 178 180 181 411-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
MARINE/LONG TERM...NS