Small Craft Advisory 1040, NWS Anchorage, AK

299 
FZAK51 PAFC 280110
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-281345-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A trough will persist across the northern Gulf through Tue. The 
trough strengthens to a 1004 mb low 60 mi south of Cape Suckling Wed
morning and moves to the eastern Gulf by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-281345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Along
the coast, E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-281345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-281345-
Resurrection Bay-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt early increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-281345-
Prince William Sound-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-281345-
Port Valdez-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-281345-
Valdez Narrows-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-281345-
Valdez Arm-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-281345-
Passage Canal-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-281345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ131-281345-
Barren Islands East-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-281345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-281345-
Chiniak Bay-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-281345-
Marmot Bay-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-281345-
Shelikof Strait-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-281345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-281345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt near the Forelands after 
midnight. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight.
.WED...W wind 10 kt.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ141-281345-
Kachemak Bay-
410 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft in
the morning subsiding to 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

991 
FZAK51 PAFC 281255
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-290215-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A trough will persist across the northern Gulf through Tue. 
A 1005 mb forms 50 nm southeast of Cordova Wed morning. Then 
the low moves southeastward and exits the Gulf by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-290215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft except 5 ft near the coast.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Near the coast, E wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt late. 
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-290215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Near the coast, W wind 20 kt becoming variable
10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft except 6 ft near the coast.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt by midnight. Near the coast, 
variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt by midnight. Seas 8 ft 
building to 13 ft after midnight. Near the coast, variable wind 10 
kt becoming NW 25 kt by midnight. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-290215-
Resurrection Bay-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind less than 10 kt becoming N 25 kt with gusts to 
35 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-290215-
Prince William Sound-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
building to 8 ft late.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ126-290215-
Port Valdez-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-290215-
Valdez Narrows-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind to 15 kt. Seas to 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-290215-
Valdez Arm-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-290215-
Passage Canal-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W around midnight
and increasing to 35 kt late. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier toward
morning. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft late. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 50 kt near Whittier diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-290215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt midday, then becoming 
SW 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ131-290215-
Barren Islands East-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt around midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-290215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-290215-
Chiniak Bay-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt with gusts to 50 kt diminishing to 15 kt 
with gusts to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-290215-
Marmot Bay-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the evening. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-290215-
Shelikof Strait-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes in the evening. Seas 
10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-290215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-290215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt except S wind 20 kt near the Forelands.
Areas of freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ141-290215-
Kachemak Bay-
355 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft, except 5 ft in the outer bay.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 35 kt around midnight. 
Outer bay, seas 3 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. 
Inner bay, seas 2 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft late.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 PM AKST Sun Dec 26 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A very strong and warm subtropical ridge remains anchored over
the North Central Pacific with embedded shortwaves continuing to
ride along the ridge. Very warm air is also riding up and over
top of the ridge, across the Bering Sea and western Alaska, toward
Southcentral. This has led to ideal conditions for freezing
rain/drizzle due to the very warm air riding over top of the cold
air in place at the surface. Multiple Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued as a result. See these products for more
details.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to handle the ongoing system and freezing
rain/snow potential relatively well, with overall good synoptic
agreement through Wednesday. Models continue to indicate a
blocking high remaining in place over the North Pacific with a
series of shortwaves riding the western periphery, bringing
continued potential for periods of strong winds across the
Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea and chances for mixed precipitation
to the Southern Mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Rain/freezing rain/drizzle this afternoon may change to
all rain/drizzle this evening before tapering off overnight.
Expect LIFR/IFR cigs to briefly improve to MVFR his evening before
lowering again overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Temperatures near the surface have stayed below freezing for much
of Southcentral this afternoon. Higher elevations such as the
Upper Hillside of Anchorage reached the mid 40s. Warm air due to
southerly winds are hanging around the lower Cook Inlet.
Accumulating freezing drizzle started early over the Anchorage
Bowl. The sounding this afternoon over Anchorage has air below
freezing from about 1000 feet to the surface and while there is
some saturation of the dry layers in the mid to upper levels this
afternoon, dry layers in the sounding continues late this
afternoon and expecting primarily freezing drizzle for most of the
evening. However, there are radar returns from the Susitna Valley
moving south and a brief period of heavier precipitation may
still occur this evening with the expected timing of the
shortwave.

Precipitation will gradually diminish this evening into the
overnight hours with some areas potentially transitioning back
over to snow over interior Southcentral as the upper level trough
exits. Temperature inversions are expected. Fog and low clouds
will be prominent on Monday into Tuesday morning.

Another chance of precipitation will come Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night as a stronger shortwave and surface cold
front move through. The bulk of mixed precipitation will fall
ahead of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Wednesday)...

The stream of moisture and warm air will continue over Southwest
Alaska through Tuesday afternoon before a more seasonal airmass is
able to return to the region. Two more low pressure systems will
track from the western Bering into the Bering Strait, keeping the
region well within the warm sector of each storm. Expect highs and
lows to linger in the mid to upper 30s through Tuesday night. The
only exception to this is Hooper Bay and Chevak, where a brief
period of northerly winds Monday morning may allow for freezing
rain or freezing rain and snow. By Tuesday afternoon enough cold
air will finally wrap around the parade of lows to return cold
temps to the region. Some uncertainty remains as to whether or not
the cold air will make it in time to switch the precipitation
type to snow as the final front moves across the region Tuesday.
With so much ambient moisture, a brief shot of snow looks likely
but there is a chance the moisture will outpace the cold air on
its journey east, allowing for a hard freeze rather than fresh
snow on top of the ice prior to the freeze. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

An upper-level ridge is still anchored over the North Pacific,
and its upstream southerly flow continues to pump in moisture and
warm air to the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Tonight into Monday, a
North Pacific surface low and an associated upper-level shortwave
will track across the western and central Aleutians into the
Bering. The current models are showing this system to be weaker
than the previous runs, so widespread gales with storm force gusts
are now expected for the western region as the low tracks
northward. Since temperatures are still well above freezing, rain
is expected to be the primary precipitation type. This low will
track to the northern Bering on Monday and dissipate there late
Monday night. Thus, winds and rain will diminish across the
northern Bering. Another brief shot of rain and gales will occur
for the central Aleutians and southern Bering Monday afternoon
into Monday night as a weak surface low moves across the area.
From Monday night into Wednesday, a cold front extending from a
surface low near Russia will push eastward across the Aleutians
and Bering. This will gradually drop temperatures from west to
east across the region. Precipitation with this system should
remain ahead of the front in the warm sector, so rain is the
anticipated precipitation type. The low will spread gale force
winds across the western Bering Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering...Winds diminish to small crafts and below early Wednesday
morning. As a North Pacific low tracks into the Bering, expect
widespread gales Wednesday evening through Friday, with areas of
storm force winds possible. This low moves into the Eastern
Bering on Friday. Behind it, a Kamchatka low brings southerly
gales as its front tracks into the Western and Central Bering.
Seas of 20-30 ft are expected through this period.

Gulf of Alaska...A low develops in the Gulf Wednesday, leading to
cold air advection and outflow winds. Expect widespread small
crafts, with areas of gales especially through Kamishak Gap. Seas
will be 10-15 ft. By late Wednesday night, winds subside below
small crafts and seas below 8 ft. Another low develops in the Gulf
Friday morning, though its position and strength are uncertain.
Areas of small crafts are likely, with a potential for gales if a
barrier jet or robust outflow winds develop. Seas will be 15-25
ft.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Thursday through Sunday)...

A surface low and its front, supported by robust mid-level
vorticity, break down the persistent North Pacific ridge as they
track eastward Thursday. The front will bring widespread
precipitation across Southwest by Thursday morning, transitioning
to showers Friday. Precipitation is expected to begin late
Thursday in Southcentral, tapering off by late Saturday evening.
Though some mixed precipitation is possible, temperatures aloft
look cold enough to support mostly snow outside of Kodiak and the
Aleutians. By Friday, a developing low in the Gulf will drive
offshore flow throughout Southcentral. Uncertainty remains with
the track and strength of this low, leading to uncertainty in
winds and precipitation amounts/timing. Over the Southwest,
northerly flow dominates as a highly amplified ridge builds in the
Bering Sea through Sunday. Over the Western and Central Bering, a
warm front pushing in from the west will bring rain Saturday and
Sunday.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 125 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130-132 138-140 174-178 185 351 352
	     411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF/CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...RC