Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

313 
FZAK62 PAFC 071209
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080200-
309 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low at 60N 171E moves to the Russian Chukchi Coast and 
dissipates Mon afternoon. Its front extends across the western 
Bering and western Aleutians Sun and moves across the Bering and 
Aleutians through Mon morning and into Western Alaska by Mon 
afternoon. Several troughs follow the front across the Bering 
through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
309 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray. Snow.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
309 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
309 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
309 AM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

343 
FZAK62 PAFC 080022
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081530-
322 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

VENIAMINOF VOLCANO AT 56N 159W IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE. 

A front extends across the western Bering and Western Aleutians 
Sun evening and moves across the eastern Bering and Eastern Aleutians
through Mon morning. The front then moves inland into Western 
Alaska by Mon afternoon. Several waves follow the front across 
the Bering through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081530-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
322 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... 

.TONIGHT...SW to NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray after midnight.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of
56N. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of
56N.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
322 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
322 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081530-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
322 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain becoming snow
after midnight.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

769 
FZAK62 PAFC 081247
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090145-
347 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

VENIAMINOF VOLCANO AT 56N 159W IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE. 

A front extends across the eastern Bering and eastern Aleutians 
Mon morning and moves into the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska Mon 
afternoon. Several troughs and weak lows follow the front across 
the Bering through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... 

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

585 
FZAK62 PAFC 090023
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091400-
323 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

VENIAMINOF VOLCANO AT 56N 159W IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE. 

Several troughs and weak lows follow the front across the Bering 
through Wed morning. A 1006 mb low at 53N 155W Tue afternoon 
moves into the Gulf by Wed afternoon. A front approaches the 
western Aleutians and Bering Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 57N.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK62 PAFC 091235
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100130-
335 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Several troughs and weak lows move across the Bering through Wed 
morning. A 1006 mb low at 53N 155W this afternoon moves into the 
Gulf by Wed morning. A front approaches the western Aleutians and 
Bering Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
Heavy Freezing spray N of 57N.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Sat Mar 6 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A negatively titled trough with a broad low over Chucki Sea
extends its axis from the northern Bering to the central Gulf, in
concert with a moist, westerly flow across the Bering to the
Southwest coast. Two distinct shortwaves over the Gulf, one
moving southeastward over the Pacific, and another, albeit
weaker, inverted trough / weak surface low moving northwestward
near Prince William Sound. WV/IR imagery has a N-S frontal
boundary associated with the Gulf low that is beginning to shear
apart across the mainland. This feature was responsible for the
light snow over parts of Kodiak Island, Western Kenai Peninsula,
and Susitna Valley overnight, and continues to produce an area of
light snow from Kenai to Homer this morning. Additionally, the
latest ASCAT pass (Scatterometer Wind) is capturing gale to storm
force winds south of the AKPEN to the western and central Gulf
associated with cold air advection on the backside of the low.
Radar is picking up light precipitation moving across the
Kuskokwim Bay Coast and scattered light showers south of Middleton
Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remain in consolidated agreement with synoptic
features for the short term and on track with the active weather
pattern over the Bering this weekend. However, model solutions
are having difficulties with the development of an inverted
trough / weak surface low south of Yakutat for Saturday and how
much, if any, precipitation can be expected for the coastal areas
near Cordova as well as higher elevations before weakening by
Sunday. Additionally, there are also minor discrepancies with the
extent of how much warm air moves over Southwest Alaska in
advance of a frontal system Sunday night into Monday as well as
the timing of the front as it tracks east. The 06z NAM is
currently the warmest and fastest solution and appears as the
outlier when compared to the GFS/GEM/ECWMF. Thus, updates made to
the overnight forecast package were weighted to the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions this morning are expected to become VFR by
late morning to mid-day with light winds through the period. After
midnight more MVFR to IFR low clouds possible through Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Today
through Monday Night)...

Light snow will continue through the early morning hours from
Kenai to Homer as a stationary boundary remains draped over Cook
Inlet. Later this morning, an upper-level wave tracking east from
Southwest Alaska will move across the area, ushering in a cold,
westerly flow aloft. The resultant cold air advection, in
combination with an upslope flow along the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna Mountains, will act to wring out any residual moisture
in the form of light snow before ending this evening. A brief
period of light snow is also possible for the Anchorage Bowl and
the Matanuska Valley this morning as the trough lifts through the
region. However, any accumulations will be light, most likely a
dusting to perhaps an inch for the Anchorage Hillside.

Outflow winds will also be on the increase this morning through
favored gaps and bays as the colder air advects into the
interior. These winds are expected to peak through Resurrection
Bay, Passage Canal and the Copper River Delta this evening
before diminishing on Sunday. Northwesterly gales will also
continue from Kamishak Bay across the Barren Islands through
Sunday.

Generally clear and dry conditions will persist Sunday into much
of Monday as the upper trough moves east and as a strong upper
ridge amplifies over the Gulf and extends across the mainland. The
only concern with the ridge building overhead will be the
possibility of fog developing along Cook Inlet and the Copper
River Basin early Sunday and Monday mornings. By late Monday,
this ridge slides east as the next frontal system advances from
Western Alaska to Southcentral. This systems looks to tap into
warmer air as a deep southerly flow develops ahead of a front
moving into the western Gulf Monday. Any snow during the onset of
precipitation for Kodiak Island late Monday morning looks to
change quickly to rain as temperatures push toward 40F.
Precipitation type could also become an issue along the immediate
coast late Monday into Tuesday. However, there is still a fair bit
of uncertainty as to the northward extend of warm air as well as
the development and placement of a surface low near the Kenai
Peninsula as the front moves to the northern Gulf for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Sunday night)...

A frontal boundary from the Bering will bring increased snow over
the coastal area from Kuskokwim Bay through Bristol Bay today,
and blowing snow conditions around mid-morning into this afternoon
for Kuskokwim Delta. Cold air advection across Southwest Alaska will
recede eastward as warm temperatures begin filling in the coastal
area this morning followed by warmer southwest winds Sunday morning.
In spite of warm airmass moving inland, the potential for snowy
conditions is high for populated areas in the next two days.
Thanks to the next slow-moving frontal system from the Bering
which will bring another round of increased snowfall on Sunday
night into Monday, and the potential for blowing snow around
Kuskokwim Delta through Monday. Temperatures at freezing level
will remain in place across the region, with slight minimum
variation over portions of AKPEN Sunday night into Monday. A
relatively good amount of rain will pass through AKPEN into
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Sunday night)...

Gales and elevated seas and swells will persist through the
forecast period. Two separate frontal boundaries from a low over
the western Bering will bring snow and snow/rain mix across the
area in the next couple days. The first frontal boundary extends
across the northern Bering this morning, which will bring a lot of
snow through St George and Nunivak Island today. The second
frontal boundary west of western Aleutians will bring snow/rain
mix across the central and eastern Bering and the Aleutians.
Latest models delayed the forward motion of the front, and its
still trekking toward Southwest Alaska by Sunday night into Monday
morning. Behind the front, cold air advection temperatures in the
16-24 degrees Celsius will stroll across the Bering and the
Aleutians which will give more reasons for freezing spray and
heavy freezing spray to return Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering Sea: A Northern Bering low tracks into the Chukchi Sea
through Tue. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft
winds and waves with some areas of gale force winds move across
the Bering, diminishing late Tue. Seas to 18 feet over the Western
Bering and Aleutians subsides by Tue. A new low and front moves
across the Central Aleutians and Bering through Tue. Winds become
light and variable over the Central and Eastern Bering, westerly
winds over the Western Bering

Gulf of Alaska: A low tracks the Alaska Peninsula coast over to
Prince William Sound for Wed. A front moves across the Gulf
through Wed. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft
winds and waves move across the Gulf through Wed. Gale force winds
develop from the Barren Islands into the Gulf Tue through Wed.
Waves to 18 feet move across the Gulf through Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The key features in the long term consist of a broad upper level trough
over the Bering with a highly amplified ridge in place over the
Alaska-Yukon border. As the trough shifts eastward over the
Mainland by Wednesday, several embedded shortwaves at the base of
the trough propagate across the Aleutian Chain from west to east.
This will likely translate into a more active weather pattern for
the Bering for the middle of next week. By Thursday morning, the
upper level trough axis is placed over the Mainland, with a
surface low spinning up at the base of the trough over the Gulf.
This low may bring the potential for snow to Southecentral, given
the colder airmass in place, however confidence is very low this
far out in time. Additionally, a cold Arctic airmass will be in
place across the Mainland Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday
night, model solutions are advertising a broad low entering the
western Bering and tracking eastward through the end of the week.
The front associated with this low will reach the Southwest coast
late Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178.
         Gale Warning 121 130-132 155 165 170 172-177 179-181 185
					  411-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF/TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST Sat Mar 6 2021

AKZ152-155-161-070615-
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay,
Nunivak Island, King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point
333 PM AKST Sat Mar 6 2021

...MAJOR WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...

Temperatures are likely to approach 40F throughout the region by
Sunday evening. Deep southerly flow along a front will bring in
warm temperatures and rain from west to east Sunday afternoon into
Monday. Strong southerly winds up to 40 mph are likely along the
coast and up to 30 mph over the interior. There is high confidence
in this expected pattern change with any remaining uncertainty in
regards to mixed precipitation potential.

The combination of warm temperatures...rain...and persistent winds
may cause rapid snowmelt. Travel may become difficult due to
overflow on rivers and slushy...wet snow. The rapid warm up may
also cause rooftops to shed their snow unexpectedly...so caution is
urged around buildings. Snow is possible on the tail end of the
front as the winds switch to the west and cold...seasonal
temperatures return late Monday into Tuesday. Please stay tuned to
the forecast at weather.gov/anchorage.

AKZ181-070615-
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
333 PM AKST Sat Mar 6 2021

...TRACE ASHFALL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF VENIAMINOF...

The Alaska Volcano Observatory has detected some activity and low
level ash emission in webcam and satellite data from the
Veniaminof Volcano located north of Perryville. Any ashfall is
expected to be of trace amounts.

Surface winds are northwesterly. Any potential ashfall would be
to the south or southeast of the volcano.