Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

268 
FZAK62 PAFC 300000
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301400-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Bering will move slowly east through 
Sunday.

$$

PKZ411-301400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray N
of 58N and E of 175W. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

164 
FZAK62 PAFC 301203
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
303 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-310200-
303 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 46N 157E moves to 55N 171E at 968 mb by Sun 
night.

$$

PKZ411-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
303 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
303 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
303 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-310200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
303 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

227 
FZAK62 PAFC 310025
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-311400-
325 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front slowly tracks west to east across the Bering trough 
Monday. A 967 mb low at 51N 168E Sun afternoon moves to 55N 173E 
at 971 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-311400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
325 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-311400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
325 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-311400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
325 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-311400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
325 PM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray in
the morning N of 57N and E of 169W.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough is in place over the Bering. At the
surface, two lows are keeping an active weather pattern in place
with one centered over the northern Bering and another centered
over the northern Gulf. Over the Bering, cold air and snow
showers are filling in on the backside of the low. Meanwhile over
the Gulf, a low centered just east of Kodiak Island is spreading a
front northward toward the northern Gulf coast. Additionally,
surface observations and satellite imagery confirm snow spreading
inland over the Susitna Valley this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions have ultimately come into better agreement with
the formation of the low east of Kodiak Island. The most recent
NAM model has illustrated a solution more in line with the GFS,
therefore confidence in the low taking a more southerly track
across the Gulf has increased. Models are also suggesting the low
briefly stalls over the Gulf Friday morning before moving south.
Farther west, model solutions remain in generally good agreement
through the weekend as they track another low arriving over the
western Aleutians Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist this afternoon.
MVFR ceilings are possible this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday morning)...

A low tracking into the Gulf is currently bringing snow and
blowing snow to Kodiak Island. While the heaviest snow should
remain offshore, it is expected to persist for the next few hours
before gradually diminishing through early Friday morning. Snow
will continue over the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince
William Sound through Friday as the low stalls in the central
Gulf. Highest totals are expected in the Whittier area, dropping
quickly from east to west. As the low departs southward by
Saturday, cooler, dry conditions will continue through the weekend
across Southcentral with temperatures falling to near zero across
much of the region by Sunday morning. An upper level trough will
lead to light snow over the Copper River Basin on Sunday with
moderately gusty outflow winds in the usual terrain gaps. Areas
to the west are expected to remain precipitation-free.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Sunday morning)...
Currently a decaying front is over the mainland, and will keep
snow showers in the forecast for this evening. As the low pressure
system approaches and the wind field lightens up, fog and stratus
will build back in tonight, especially around Bristol Bay. The
pattern will change tomorrow as that system slides into the Gulf.
That change will bring in a short-lived arctic air mass. Friday
night and Saturday night will see temperatures below zero, with
the Kuskokwim Valley getting into the negative teens. This pattern
may not hang around for long as a strong front move across the
Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An arctic air mass will begin to move south across the Bering Sea
tonight, as another front moves into the western Bering Sea from
the west. The arctic air in the eastern Bering will make for some
area of heavy freezing spray, especially near to the ice edge. The
warmer air mass coming in from the west over the weekend will end
this threat. The front will bring a good amount of moisture and
rain along with gale-force winds.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska - Model tracks and development are similar, so
confidence is good through the forecast period. A weak ridge over
the Alaska Peninsula pushes against a weak inverted trough across
the Gulf through Tue. Outflow conditions produce northwesterly
small craft with gale force winds through the Barren Island into
the Central Gulf diminishing Mon. Wave heights to 12 feet over the
Western Gulf for Sun and Mon. Gusty winds less than small craft
will linger through Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait through Tue.

Aleutians / Bering - Model tracks and development are similar, so
confidence is good through the forecast period. A well developed
front moves across the Aleutians and Bering through Tue.
Widespread southerly small craft winds surround a broad band of
gale force winds moving into the Eastern Bering. High end easterly
gale force winds with storm force develop with the front over the
Northern Bering Mon and Tue. Winds diminishing over the South
Tue. Wave heights building to 28 feet over the Northern Bering,
and 24 feet Pacific side with the front Mon. A second front
approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering Tue. Wave heights with
this front to 20 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A high amplitude pattern will be expanding and smoothing out over
the forecast period. Models are in decent agreement, but favoring
those with lesser eastward progression.

On Monday, a well developed low over the Western Bering will
track eastward and begin to displace a prominent ridge over
Western Alaska. Meanwhile, a second upper level low over the Yukon
Territory will move into the Arctic. The low over the western
Bering then regress to the northwest into Siberia. This allows the
ridge to expand and weaken in the west, and ultimately results in
a more zonal pattern with continued active weather expected to
persist across the Bering and Aleutians.

A front extending from the Bering low pushes across into the
Western Alaska before breaking into two parts. The first part
lifts northward into the Chukchi Sea, and the second moves through
to the Gulf of Alaska. Widespread precipitation is expected
through Thursday. Inland areas over Southcentral will see more
snow, but amounts vary with location and lingering cold air.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 131 132 150-180.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 150-165 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK