Gale Warning 226, NWS Anchorage, AK

411 
FZAK62 PAFC 011228
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020230-
328 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb complex low at 59N 177W moves to 57N 161W at 975 mb by
Tue morning, then crosses the Alaska Peninsula into the North
Pacific near 52N 150W at 982 mb by early Wed morning. Its front 
moves across Southwest Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska through Wed 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-020230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft subsiding to 19 to
29 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 42 to 49 ft subsiding to 32 to
45 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

562 
FZAK62 PAFC 020052
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021400-
352 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 58N 177W moves to 53N 157W at 985 mb Tue 
afternoon continuing into the North Pacific. Its front extends 
through Southwest Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska and dissipating 
Wed afternoon. A Kamchatka front moves into the Western Aleutians 
and Bering by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 30 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

003 
FZAK62 PAFC 021224
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030200-
324 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 mb complex low at 58N 166W moves into the North Pacific and
weakens through this afternoon. A Kamchatka front moves over the 
western Aleutians and Bering by Wed morning then spreads into the 
central Aleutians by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
324 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. Rain with snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
324 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
324 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
324 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 30 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

082 
FZAK62 PAFC 030050
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031400-
350 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb complex low at 57N 150W exits into the North Pacific by 
this evening. A low near Kamchatka extends a front into the 
western Aleutians and Bering by Wed morning. The front then 
crosses into the eastern Aleutians and Bering through Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 33 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 35 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray after midnight. Snow
and rain.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

220 
FZAK62 PAFC 031235
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-040200-
335 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Bering weakens through this afternoon. A
front over the western Bering and Aleutians associated with a 970
mb Kamchatka low moves into the eastern Bering and Aleutians by 
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-040200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 28 ft. Heavy freezing spray in
the morning.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 33 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-040200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray
in the morning. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft building to 16 to
22 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-040200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 35 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-040200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
20 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

970 
FZAK62 PAFC 040048
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041400-
348 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb North Kamchatka low moves to the East Siberian Sea coast
for Fri afternoon. Its front moves across the Aleutians and 
Bering into Western Alaska by Thu afternoon. A 972 mb North 
Kamchatka low Thu afternoon moves to 61N 176W at 992 mb through 
Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-041400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.THU...W wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 30 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 25 to 34 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 56N.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 33 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 32 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
20 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 29 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 31 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A rapid moving upper-low over the Gulf with a broad band of
moisture and clouds across Southcentral will bring rain/snow mix
over Prince William Sound and farther inland through Copper River
Basin this morning. Cold air advection from upstream dipped south
of the Alaska Range, which will enhance the potential for snow
over parts of Matanuska Valley this morning. An amplified upper
level ridge over eastern Bering is focused on advancing eastward
through Southwest today followed by a vigorous upper low and
frontal system. The latter pattern is already providing storm to
hurricane force winds over the Bering Sea and portions of the
Aleutians. Low cloud deck and stratus spreads over much of
Southwest Alaska, portions of western Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak
Island from last night into this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in favorable synoptic agreement through at least
Wednesday afternoon. The most busiest weather traffic will
remain over the Bering Sea and Aleutians through Tuesday morning.
Overall, solutions are in sync with the motion and placement of
lows over the Gulf and Bering in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Cloud ceilings will continue to improve into the afternoon,
with predominantly moderate northwest winds near the Airport
today. Winds will gradually diminish tonight. Hence, VFR
conditions will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

A deep low over the northern Gulf this morning will exit eastward,
reaching Southeast Alaska by this evening. Snow will linger in the
Copper River Basin through midday then taper off this afternoon.
Moderate to strong cold air advection will occur across the entire
region in the wake of the low. This will produce widespread strong
gusty winds through many of the mountain passes as well as through
bays along the coast. The strongest winds are expected across the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island (where a High Wind Warning remains
in effect through the morning hours).

Cold air advection may initially lead to some localized upslope
snowfall, most likely along the western side of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains. However, drier and colder air will ultimately
wind out bringing and end to any snow by this evening.
Temperatures will hold steady or fall today as the arctic airmass
settles in. Cloud cover and winds are the only thing keeping
temperatures from plummeting. Winds will die down this evening
over inland areas of Southcentral, so expect a more significant
drop in temperatures tonight.

However, the colder temperature will be short-lived, thanks to
very progressive steering flow aloft. A front extending from a
Hurricane force low near the western Aleutians will arrive in the
western Gulf/Kodiak Island by early Monday morning and then
continue a rapid eastward march across the Gulf and Southcentral
during the day Monday. Arctic air wrapping into the Aleutian low
will drive eastward so that the bulk of "warmer" air will pass
south of Kodiak Island. As a result, expect precipitation to fall
as all snow except perhaps the south end of Kodiak Island and over
the Gulf waters. Do expect a low to form along the front and take
a similar track to the current low across the northern Gulf.
However, this low will not be as deep and there will be a broad
trough aloft, so expect fairly homogeneous snow amounts across the
region, generally on the order of 2 to 4 inches. A showery regime
will then settle in Monday night through Tuesday night as a
long-wave trough settles in, with the remnants of the Aleutian low
ultimately exiting across the southern Gulf. Most of the activity
will be centered over the Gulf with just a chance of showers over
Southcentral. Temperatures will generally remain "chilly" and below
average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

There is a fast moving front associated with a strong North
Pacific low. The leading edge of the precipitation shield will
make its way to the southwest coast by tonight. On satellite
imagery, this front has a fetch of moisture that spans to the
Western Pacific north of Attu Island. The models are showing that
this boundary will modify the the airmass over SW AK slightly, but
the precipitation that falls is expected to be snow. Snow is
expected to arrive later tonight across the area and will continue
through Monday. With gusty and widespread windy, some areas will
see blowing snow. A triple point low forms over the Alaska
Peninsula Monday, and will sustain additional snowfall for the
Western Alaska Range and AKPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

This morning there is a strong low surface low near Attu Island.
This is a fast moving system and the front will move eastward this
forecast period bringing strong winds and another round of snow
and blowing snow over the western Bering that will progress
eastward today through early next week. A Winter Weather Advisory
for blowing snow has been issued for Saint Paul and Saint George
as high winds and snow will limit visibility to one half mile at
times on Sunday.

As cold air gets entrained into the low, southwesterly to westerly
winds will follow, with hurricane force gusts likely across much
of the western Bering Sunday into Monday. A High Wind Warning has
been issued for the western Chain, including Shemya for today into
Monday. This front will push eastward another High Wind Warning
has been issued there as well for late Sunday through the majority
of Monday for Adak. A third High Wind Warning has been issued for
the central Aleutians, including Unalaska/Dutch Harbor, where
there is potential for strong winds Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Bering: A well developed low and front tracks into Southwest
Alaska for Tue. Model confidence is good. Widespread high end
gale force winds and waves with areas of storm force winds over
the Eastern Bering, Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, diminishing
Thu. Waves to 40 feet on the Bering side of the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, subsiding. A new low and front moves across
into the Central Aleutians and Bering by Thu. Widespread high end
gale force winds with storm force gusts spread into the Central
Aleutians and Bering through Thu. Wave building to 25 feet over
the Western Bering by Thu.

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Southern Gulf Wed. Models vary,
but confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves
with areas of gale force winds mostly south and west of Kodiak
Island. Waves 18 feet building to 22 feet for Wed. Outflow winds
from the Alaska Peninsula spread from the Shumagin Islands to the
Barren Islands into the Western Gulf. Widespread gale force winds
diminish to small craft winds for Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term forecast period continues to look quieter overall
with most of the active weather remaining out over the Bering Sea
with an occasional front moving into Southwest for potential light
snow. The period from Wednesday through Saturday continues to
suggest (and there is great model agreement on this) that an upper
level Arctic/Siberian low will move southward through southern
Alaska on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds in across the
Bering Sea. This upper level ridge is expected to move over
Southwest Alaska on Thursday bringing the potential for some light
snow though it seems with each new model run, these upper level
features are being shifted slightly westward. Potential exists
this front may never move onshore Southwest Thursday afternoon
into early Friday timeframe. The main thing to take away from the
pattern going forward during the forecast period above is colder
than normal temperatures for southern Alaska along with below
normal precipitation. Winds through gaps and passes appear to be
the main theme with the cold air expected to generally move from a
northwest to southeast orientation. This continues to not be the
ideal setup for very strong winds out of the gaps and passes
across Southcentral, except for possibly Whittier. Winds will be
on the uptick, however, during this timeframe but the extent as to
how strong they would get will be limited due to the way the cold
air will be pushing through. Another stronger front may try to
move into Southwest Alaska at the end of the forecast period
Friday night into Saturday bringing more snow to Southwest and
some slightly warmer temperatures, though, still remaining below
normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 131 141 155 195
		 High Wind Warning 171 185 187 191
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 130 178
		 Storm Warning 131 132 138 150 170 171 173-177 185
 		 Gale Warning 120 121 125 127 129 136 137 139 155 160 165
					  172 179 180 181
	 	 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 139 150 160 165 180
									  185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CMB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MV