Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
321 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Storm chances will continue to increase through Saturday, mainly
south of Interstate 40 and east of Interstate 25. Areas of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible, with amounts of 2-3
inches total. Temperatures will drop closer to seasonal averages for
mid-August starting tomorrow. The forecast generally trends drier
Sunday and Monday, but storm coverage ramps up again by mid to late
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
Showers and storms are more numerous this afternoon compared to 24
hours ago, thanks to increasing moisture and a weak upper
circulation stretched from south central to northeast NM. Models
have analyzed this feature farther north than yesterday, and cells
have been developing even over far northeast NM. Consequently, the
focus for heavy rainfall has also stretched farther north, and the
Flash Flood Watch area from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am Friday also
does, pretty much in agreement with the WPC ERO Day 1 Slight risk
area. There is potential for heavy rain to persist overnight tonight
in the watch area, if the NAM12, HREF, HRRR, etc are right. Although
confidence is relatively low, went ahead and put some patchy fog in
the weather grids for late tonight and early Friday morning from the
east slopes of the central mountain chain to the TX border, given
the wet environment. Expect the Flash Flood Watch will be adjusted
in area and/or time for Friday and Friday night at some point as
forecast models tend to move the upper low slowly south and westward
as the upper high center expands into Colorado. The far northwest
corner of the state will be least likely to see rain in the short
term.

High temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler central and
east on Friday, pushing them farther below normal as compared to
today.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding continues
on Saturday, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. The upper-level
high will be located over the Great Basin, with the low somewhere
across southern New Mexico, acting as the lift to keep precipitation
going. Some locations will average around 1-2" between Saturday and
Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible due to upslope flow and
slow storm motions. It is likely that the Flash Flood Watch issued
through Friday will be extended through the Saturday period. As of
right now, the WPC ERO Day 3 outlook has a slight risk outlined for
the far southern portion of the forecast area. Temperatures stay near
to below across much of the forecast area, with the exception of
above normal temperatures across the northern portion of the state on
Saturday.

On Sunday, the upper-level low slides back to the south and west, as
the high builds over the Great Basin. PWAT's drop near or below the
1" range Sunday and Monday. 12z models generally have the high over
New Mexico by Tuesday, before a longwave trough drops down from the
Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF has this trough further south than
previous model runs; this could mean precipitation chances
continuing well into the latter portion of next week.

99/31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cell motion tonight will be slowly to the southwest over central and
western New Mexico while in the east central part of the state,
cells will move from north to south. Locally heavy rainfall which
could lead to flash flooding is possible over portions of south
central and eastern New Mexico, but any cell will be capable of
heavy rain.  The far northwest corner of the state is least likely
to see rain tonight.

An upper low/trough stretched from south central to northeast New
Mexico will move slowly to the south and west late this week and
early next week. This will result in a wet period with scattered to
numerous showers and storms, some of which will produce heavy rain,
especially along and south of I-40. There may be a brief downtick in
the number of showers and storms Sunday and Monday, but if it occurs
it may not last. Forecast models for mid to late next week seem to
keep a tap of monsoon moisture flowing over at least part of New
Mexico.

The higher and good to excellent ventilation rates will favor
northern New Mexico Friday and Saturday.

99

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A weak upper low/trough over se and east central NM will lead to
sct-nmrs showers and tstms, especially along and south of I-40 and
east of I-25. Storm motion will be to the sw around 10-15 kts over
nrn and wrn NM but will be more erratic over south central and east
central NM. Brief mt obscurations with MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are
possible in the stronger storms. Showers and tstms to persist aft
03Z, especially east of the central mountain chain where terrain will
become obscured in sct MVFR to IFR cigs/vsybs in br and rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  93  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  53  87  49  87 /  20  40  30  40
Cuba............................  58  80  53  80 /  30  40  30  30
Gallup..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  20  20  20
El Morro........................  55  81  55  79 /  40  40  30  30
Grants..........................  57  82  57  81 /  40  40  30  30
Quemado.........................  56  79  56  78 /  60  60  50  50
Magdalena.......................  58  77  57  73 /  70  70  60  60
Datil...........................  54  75  55  72 /  70  70  50  60
Reserve.........................  56  80  58  80 /  70  80  60  70
Glenwood........................  61  82  63  82 /  60  80  70  80
Chama...........................  52  80  46  80 /  20  40  40  40
Los Alamos......................  60  79  54  77 /  30  50  40  40
Pecos...........................  57  73  53  75 /  60  70  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  49  77  46  80 /  20  50  30  40
Red River.......................  45  67  42  72 /  30  50  30  40
Angel Fire......................  43  69  42  72 /  40  60  40  40
Taos............................  51  80  49  82 /  30  50  20  30
Mora............................  53  69  49  73 /  50  70  40  40
Espanola........................  57  86  56  85 /  20  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  60  78  55  78 /  50  60  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  58  81  55  81 /  40  50  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  80  61  81 /  50  50  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  81  63  83 /  40  50  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  84  64  84 /  40  50  40  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  83  62  83 /  40  40  30  30
Belen...........................  65  84  63  84 /  50  50  50  40
Bernalillo......................  64  85  61  86 /  40  50  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  63  83  63  83 /  50  50  40  30
Corrales........................  64  84  62  85 /  40  50  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  63  84  63  84 /  50  50  40  30
Placitas........................  63  82  59  80 /  40  50  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  83  61  85 /  40  40  30  30
Socorro.........................  64  84  63  81 /  60  60  60  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  75  56  75 /  50  60  40  40
Tijeras.........................  62  77  58  78 /  50  60  40  40
Edgewood........................  59  75  56  77 /  50  60  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  74  56  76 /  50  60  40  40
Clines Corners..................  56  69  53  73 /  70  70  50  40
Mountainair.....................  58  74  56  74 /  70  70  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  58  73  56  72 /  70  80  70  50
Carrizozo.......................  62  74  59  75 /  70  80  70  60
Ruidoso.........................  56  65  53  64 /  80  90  70  70
Capulin.........................  55  74  52  78 /  40  50  20  20
Raton...........................  53  79  52  82 /  30  50  20  20
Springer........................  55  77  53  81 /  40  50  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  69  53  74 /  60  70  40  40
Clayton.........................  62  79  60  82 /  40  40  20  20
Roy.............................  58  71  54  78 /  60  60  40  20
Conchas.........................  64  77  61  83 /  70  60  50  30
Santa Rosa......................  65  75  61  79 /  70  70  60  40
Tucumcari.......................  67  80  63  81 /  70  60  40  30
Clovis..........................  66  77  61  74 /  70  60  60  50
Portales........................  67  79  62  75 /  70  60  60  50
Fort Sumner.....................  67  75  63  76 /  80  70  60  40
Roswell.........................  68  78  68  77 /  70  70  60  50
Picacho.........................  63  71  60  75 /  70  80  70  60
Elk.............................  59  67  56  71 /  70  80  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ223>226-229-231>240.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
315 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

NMZ201>241-131100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
315 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight
mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor. Flash flooding may
occur, especially over recent burn scars, areas of complex terrain,
and within urban drainages. Storm motions will very slow and erratic.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday
mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor. Flash flooding may
occur, especially in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall, over burn scars, complex terrain, urban drainages, and low
lying areas. Rises in creeks and streams may occur across southern
portions of the area in response to several days of widespread heavy
rainfall.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Sunday and
Monday with locally heavy rainfall still possible. Another uptick in
storm coverage may occur Tuesday and Wednesday with potential for
more flash flooding across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

Guyer

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