Alert archive / New Mexico / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM
NWS Albuquerque, NM issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2021, 3:03 PM MDT for Sandoval County, New Mexico. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2021, 3:03 PM MDT (21:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 27 min
- Issued by
- NWS Albuquerque, NM
County Sandoval County, NM
The radar
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 53 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -150 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1518 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 11:45 AM MDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 11:45 AM MDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1145 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Showers and thunderstorms will develop by 19-20Z over the northern and western mountains. Most storms today will focus over the north central and west central areas of the state as storms shift off the mountains toward the west around 10kts. KGUP, KFMN and KSAF will have the greatest chance to see impacts from thunderstorms with brief excursions into MVFR due to low cigs/vsbys in heavy rainfall. Much of the thunderstorm activity should diminish by 06-07Z, though a few showers and thunderstorms may persist a few hours longer. On Thursday, storms will start by late morning across the northern and western mountains. Storms are expected to be more widespread over central and western NM with the threat for heavy rainfall and low cigs/vsbys in the aftn/eve. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Storm coverage increases across central and western New Mexico starting today with the most widespread coverage likely Thursday through Saturday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be an increasing concern each day this week, especially across the west where localized totals could exceed two inches. Temperatures will remain near to slight below normal through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A similar weather scenario to yesterday is forecast for today with a slight shift westward. 00Z HREF continues to hit north-central and west-central areas the hardest this afternoon with very similar storm steering flow to yesterday. Sandias/east mountain areas and the ABQ metro will likely be spared today given that the deformation axis is about 50 miles farther west this afternoon. Issued flash flood watch for portions of northern and west-central NM as a result of plentiful low-level moisture and the resulting rain rates falling on areas that have been saturated from recent heavy rains. Convection is forecast to taper off most areas several hours after sunset with isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing over the northwest quarter until midnight or so. 07Z HRRR smoke forecast for today reveals less to much less in the way of elevated smoke for central and especially eastern NM today. Inverted cold core closed low remains on track to move over west TX on Thursday. Numerical prediction models agree that this feature will result in increased lift/deformation over the western half of the state Thursday afternoon. The additional lift from this low will combine with abundant low-level moisture (precipitable water values above an inch most areas) and daytime heating to result in numerous strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall. A flash flood watch will likely be needed for much of northern and western NM Thursday but held off for now as to avoid confusion with today's watch. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... Models are still coming into better agreement with the retrograding upper-level low although there are still some big timing differences amongst the models. By Thursday night and Friday, models have this low just entering far southeast NM, and the H5 high is pushed westward. The low makes slow westward progress south of I-40 on Friday, and PWATs continue to rise for areas west of the central mountain chain with values well over an inch. Models have the 00Z Sat PWAT at KABQ ranging from 1.1 to 1.3", above the 90th percentile and nearing the daily max of 1.27". The latest WPC Day 3 ERO paints a broad slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of western NM. Heavy rain and flash flooding will become an increasing concern, especially depending on how much rain falls the previous day. The model differences in the track and timing of the low start to come into play this weekend. Most guidance is generally moving the low in a north-northwest direction into central NM. The NAM and GFS track it into AZ by Saturday while the ECMWF and Canadian are notably slower and keep the low over NM through the weekend. Regardless, an active weekend is ahead with widespread showers and thunderstorms, and heavy rain and flash flooding will be the biggest threat, especially across western NM. The low then exits by early next week, and the H5 high reorganizes to our east although there have been some new model differences in how fast it builds over OK/TX next week. When this happens, a more traditional monsoon pattern looks to set up across the area. 33/15 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns are forecast during the next 7 days thanks to a slow moving upper-level low that will trigger very heavy rainfall and flash flooding for much of the area from the central mountain chain westward Thursday through the weekend. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones... NMZ203-204-206-207-210-211. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 3:30 AM MDT, 11 hours 33 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 330 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 NMZ201>241-221100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 330 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become locally heavy. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of northern and west central NM through late this evening. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, with the greatest risk below recent burn scars and areas where soils are saturated. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rain, especially along and west of the Continental Divide Thursday through Saturday. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall totals and flash flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 15
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 21, 12:22 PM MDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1222 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW SEDILLO 35.12N 106.32W
07/20/2021 BERNALILLO NM SOCIAL MEDIA
TIJERAS ARROYO WAS AROUND 20 FEET WIDE AND 3 FEET DEEP
FLOWING OVER SEDILLO RD NEAR ROUTE 66. MUD AND LARGE
ROCKS WASHED OVER SEDILLO ROAD EASTWARD TO FOUR HILLS
RD. WHERE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING COVERED THE
INTERSECTION WITH MUD... ROCKS... AND DEBRIS. ONE LARGE
FENCE WAS DAMAGED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102465
GUYERSpecial weather statement, Jul 21, 3:03 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 NMZ211-212130- Jemez Mountains- 303 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MDT... At 303 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Fenton Lake State Park, or 12 miles southeast of Cuba, moving west at 10 mph. Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be likely with this storm. Locations impacted include... Fenton Lake State Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches. && LAT...LON 3600 10663 3582 10667 3582 10689 3600 10689 TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 088DEG 10KT 3593 10677 Guyer
The office that day
Everything else NWS Albuquerque, NM issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 7:30 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | ABQ | 30 min | |
| Jul 20, 8:12 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | ABQ | San Juan | 63 min |
| Jul 21, 3:04 AM MDT | Flash Flood Watch | ABQ | Bernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Los Alamos, McKinley, Rio Arriba and 5 more | 21 hr |
| Jul 21, 1:54 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | McKinley, San Juan | 111 min |
| Jul 21, 2:10 PM MDT | Flash Flood Watch | ABQ | Bernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Colfax, Los Alamos, McKinley and 10 more | 40 hr |
| Jul 21, 2:53 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Mora, San Miguel | 112 min |
| Jul 21, 3:15 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Rio Arriba, Sandoval | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 3:26 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | McKinley | 3 hr |
| Jul 21, 3:59 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ABQ | Rio Arriba, Taos | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 4:24 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | ABQ | Taos | 36 min |
| Jul 21, 5:02 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | ABQ | Rio Arriba | 3 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in New Mexico, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.