Alert archive / New Mexico / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

July 21, 202116 counties in New Mexico

NWS Albuquerque, NM issued this flash flood watch at Jul 21, 2021, 2:10 PM MDT for 16 counties in New Mexico. It took effect at Jul 22, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2021, 2:10 PM MDT (20:10 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 22, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT
Expired
Jul 23, 2021, 6:00 AM MDT
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Albuquerque, NM
Flood severity
None

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Catron County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, McKinley County, NM, Mora County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Juan County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The radar

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2021-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 53 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2021-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -23 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
53 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1518 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

871 
WGUS65 KABQ 212010
FFAABQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
210 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

NMZ203-204-206-207-210-211-220600-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0011.210722T1800Z-210723T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210722T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West Central
Mountains-West Central Highlands-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-
210 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in north central New 
  Mexico, Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northwest 
  Highlands and Tusas Mountains Including Chama. In west central New 
  Mexico, West Central Highlands and West Central Mountains.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* An approaching low pressure system combined with continued above 
  normal moisture will yield numerous showers and thunderstorms 
  across much of central and western New Mexico Thursday afternoon 
  through Thursday night. These storms will be capable of very heavy 
  rainfall, with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour. These 
  rates combined with slow storm motions increase the threat for 
  flash flooding. Locations over and downstream of wildfire burn 
  scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central and west central New Mexico, including 
  the following areas, in north central New Mexico, Far Northwest 
  Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northwest Highlands and Tusas 
  Mountains Including Chama. In west central New Mexico, West 
  Central Highlands and West Central Mountains.

* Until Midnight MDT tonight.

* Plentiful low-level moisture in place will produce scattered to 
  numerous showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall over 
  portions of north-central and west-central areas this afternoon 
  and evening. Storms will develop over the mountains and then move 
  toward the west and southwest into nearby areas. The threat for 
  flash flooding will increase in areas with repeated rounds of 
  heavy rainfall and on or near wildfire burn scars.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

NMZ202-205-208-213>221-241-220600-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0011.210722T1800Z-210723T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-Southwest Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande
Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-San Agustin Plains
and Adjacent Lowlands-
210 PM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central, north central, 
  northwest, and west central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, in central New Mexico, Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio 
  Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and 
  Adjacent Lowlands and Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. 
  In north central New Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Espanola Valley, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, 
  Santa Fe Metro Area, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Upper 
  Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska Mountains. In 
  west central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains and West Central 
  Plateau.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* An approaching low pressure system combined with continued above 
  normal moisture will yield numerous showers and thunderstorms 
  across much of central and western New Mexico Thursday afternoon 
  through Thursday night. These storms will be capable of very heavy 
  rainfall, with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour. These 
  rates combined with slow storm motions increase the threat for 
  flash flooding. Locations over and downstream of wildfire burn 
  scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

34
4 follow-up statements
793 
WGUS65 KABQ 220640
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1240 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

NMZ202>208-210-211-213>221-241-222130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0011.210722T1800Z-210723T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West
Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio
Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio
Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-San Agustin Plains
and Adjacent Lowlands-
1240 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque 
  Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands and 
  Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. In north central New 
  Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, 
  Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including 
  Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska 
  Mountains. In west central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains, West 
  Central Highlands, West Central Mountains and West Central Plateau.

* From Noon MDT today through late tonight.

* An approaching low pressure system combined with continued above 
  normal moisture will yield numerous showers and thunderstorms 
  across much of central and western New Mexico Thursday afternoon 
  through Thursday night. These storms will be capable of very heavy 
  rainfall, with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour. These 
  rates combined with slow storm motions increase the threat for 
  flash flooding. Locations over and downstream of wildfire burn 
  scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

11
714 
WGUS65 KABQ 222009
FFAABQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
209 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

NMZ202>208-210-211-213>221-241-230600-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0012.210723T1800Z-210724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210723T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West
Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio
Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio
Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-San Agustin Plains
and Adjacent Lowlands-
209 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central, north central, 
  northwest, and west central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, in central New Mexico, Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio 
  Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and 
  Adjacent Lowlands and Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. 
  In north central New Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Espanola Valley, Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez 
  Mountains, Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Northwest 
  Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, Southern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including Chama and Upper Rio Grande 
  Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska Mountains. In west central 
  New Mexico, Southwest Mountains, West Central Highlands, West 
  Central Mountains and West Central Plateau.

* From Friday afternoon through late Friday night.

* The low pressure system will shift over New Mexico on Friday. Lift 
  associated with this feature combined with continued above normal 
  moisture will yield another round of numerous showers and 
  thunderstorms across much of central and western New Mexico Friday 
  afternoon through Friday night. These storms will be capable of 
  very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per 
  hour in the strongest storms. These rates combined with slow storm 
  motions increase the threat for flash flooding. Locations that 
  receive heavy rainfall today and tonight as well as areas over and 
  downstream of wildfire burn scars will be especially susceptible 
  to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque 
  Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands and 
  Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. In north central New 
  Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, 
  Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including 
  Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska 
  Mountains. In west central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains, West 
  Central Highlands, West Central Mountains and West Central Plateau.

* Through late tonight.

* An approaching low pressure system combined with continued above 
  normal moisture will yield numerous showers and thunderstorms 
  across much of central and western New Mexico through late 
  tonight. These storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, with 
  rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour. These rates combined 
  with slow storm motions increase the threat for flash flooding. 
  Locations over and downstream of wildfire burn scars will be 
  especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

NMZ201-209-212-222>226-230600-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0012.210723T1800Z-210724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest Plateau-San Francisco River Valley-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
209 PM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central, north central, 
  northwest, and west central New Mexico, including the following 
  areas, in central New Mexico, Central Highlands, Estancia Valley, 
  South Central Highlands, South Central Mountains and Upper 
  Tularosa Valley. In north central New Mexico, Glorieta Mesa 
  Including Glorieta Pass. In northwest New Mexico, Northwest 
  Plateau. In west central New Mexico, San Francisco River Valley.

* From Friday afternoon through late Friday night.

* A low pressure system will shift over New Mexico on Friday. Lift 
  associated with this feature combined with continued above normal 
  moisture will yield another round of numerous showers and 
  thunderstorms across all of central and western New Mexico. These 
  storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates 
  exceeding two inches per hour in the strongest storms. These rates 
  combined with slow storm motions increase the threat for flash 
  flooding. Locations that receive heavy rainfall today and tonight 
  as well as areas over and downstream of wildfire burn scars will 
  be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

34
986 
WGUS65 KABQ 230639
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1239 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021

NMZ202>208-210-211-213>221-241-231445-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210723T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0012.210723T1800Z-210724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West
Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio
Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio
Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-San Agustin Plains
and Adjacent Lowlands-
1239 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque 
  Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands and 
  Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. In north central New 
  Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, 
  Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including 
  Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska 
  Mountains. In west central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains, West 
  Central Highlands, West Central Mountains and West Central Plateau.

* Until 6 AM MDT early this morning.

* An approaching low pressure system combined with continued above 
  normal moisture will yield numerous showers and thunderstorms 
  across much of central and western New Mexico through late 
  tonight. These storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, with 
  rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour. These rates combined 
  with slow storm motions increase the threat for flash flooding. 
  Locations over and downstream of wildfire burn scars will be 
  especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque 
  Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands and 
  Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. In north central New 
  Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, 
  Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including 
  Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska 
  Mountains. In west central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains, West 
  Central Highlands, West Central Mountains and West Central Plateau.

* From Noon MDT today through late tonight.

* The low pressure system will shift over New Mexico on Friday. Lift 
  associated with this feature combined with continued above normal 
  moisture will yield another round of numerous showers and 
  thunderstorms across much of central and western New Mexico Friday 
  afternoon through Friday night. These storms will be capable of 
  very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per 
  hour in the strongest storms. These rates combined with slow storm 
  motions increase the threat for flash flooding. Locations that 
  receive heavy rainfall today and tonight as well as areas over and 
  downstream of wildfire burn scars will be especially susceptible 
  to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

NMZ201-209-212-222>226-231445-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0012.210723T1800Z-210724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest Plateau-San Francisco River Valley-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
1239 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Central Highlands, Estancia Valley, South Central Highlands, South 
  Central Mountains and Upper Tularosa Valley. In north central New 
  Mexico, Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass. In northwest New 
  Mexico, Northwest Plateau. In west central New Mexico, San 
  Francisco River Valley.

* From Noon MDT today through late tonight.

* A low pressure system will shift over New Mexico on Friday. Lift 
  associated with this feature combined with continued above normal 
  moisture will yield another round of numerous showers and 
  thunderstorms across all of central and western New Mexico. These 
  storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates 
  exceeding two inches per hour in the strongest storms. These rates 
  combined with slow storm motions increase the threat for flash 
  flooding. Locations that receive heavy rainfall today and tonight 
  as well as areas over and downstream of wildfire burn scars will 
  be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

11
475 
WGUS65 KABQ 231210
FFAABQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
610 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021

NMZ202>208-210-211-213>221-241-232200-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-210723T1200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0012.210723T1800Z-210724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-West
Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio
Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio
Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-San Agustin Plains
and Adjacent Lowlands-
610 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

The previous watch has expired and today's watch will go into effect 
at noon MDT.

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Lower Rio Grande Valley, Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque 
  Metro Area, San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands and 
  Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood. In north central New 
  Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Espanola Valley, 
  Far Northwest Highlands, Jemez Mountains, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Santa Fe Metro Area, 
  Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Tusas Mountains Including 
  Chama and Upper Rio Grande Valley. In northwest New Mexico, Chuska 
  Mountains. In west central New Mexico, Southwest Mountains, West 
  Central Highlands, West Central Mountains and West Central Plateau.

* From Noon MDT today through late tonight.

* A low pressure system will shift over New Mexico today. 
  Instability associated with this feature combined with continued 
  above normal moisture will yield another round of numerous showers 
  and thunderstorms across much of central and western New Mexico 
  today through tonight. These storms will be capable of very heavy 
  rainfall, with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour in the 
  strongest storms. These rates combined with some already saturated 
  grounds will increase the threat for flash flooding. Areas over 
  and downstream of wildfire burn scars will be especially 
  susceptible to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

NMZ201-209-212-222>226-232200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0012.210723T1800Z-210724T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest Plateau-San Francisco River Valley-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
610 AM MDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central, north central, northwest, and west central 
  New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, 
  Central Highlands, Estancia Valley, South Central Highlands, South 
  Central Mountains and Upper Tularosa Valley. In north central New 
  Mexico, Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass. In northwest New 
  Mexico, Northwest Plateau. In west central New Mexico, San 
  Francisco River Valley.

* From Noon MDT today through late tonight.

* A low pressure system will shift over New Mexico today. 
  Instability associated with this feature combined with continued 
  above normal moisture will yield another round of numerous showers 
  and thunderstorms across all of central and western New Mexico. 
  These storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall, with rainfall 
  rates exceeding two inches per hour in the strongest storms. These 
  rates combined with some already saturated grounds will increase 
  the threat for flash flooding. Areas over and downstream of 
  wildfire burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

11

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 21, 11:45 AM MDT, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 11:45 AM MDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms will develop by 19-20Z over the northern
and western mountains. Most storms today will focus over the north
central and west central areas of the state as storms shift off the
mountains toward the west around 10kts. KGUP, KFMN and KSAF will have
the greatest chance to see impacts from thunderstorms with brief
excursions into MVFR due to low cigs/vsbys in heavy rainfall. Much of
the thunderstorm activity should diminish by 06-07Z, though a few
showers and thunderstorms may persist a few hours longer. On
Thursday, storms will start by late morning across the northern and
western mountains. Storms are expected to be more widespread over
central and western NM with the threat for heavy rainfall and low
cigs/vsbys in the aftn/eve.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm coverage increases across central and western New Mexico
starting today with the most widespread coverage likely Thursday
through Saturday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be an
increasing concern each day this week, especially across the west
where localized totals could exceed two inches. Temperatures will
remain near to slight below normal through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A similar weather scenario to yesterday is forecast for today with a
slight shift westward. 00Z HREF continues to hit north-central and
west-central areas the hardest this afternoon with very similar
storm steering flow to yesterday. Sandias/east mountain areas and
the ABQ metro will likely be spared today given that the deformation
axis is about 50 miles farther west this afternoon. Issued flash
flood watch for portions of northern and west-central NM as a result
of plentiful low-level moisture and the resulting rain rates falling
on areas that have been saturated from recent heavy rains.
Convection is forecast to taper off most areas several hours after
sunset with isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing over the
northwest quarter until midnight or so. 07Z HRRR smoke forecast for
today reveals less to much less in the way of elevated smoke for
central and especially eastern NM today.

Inverted cold core closed low remains on track to move over west TX
on Thursday. Numerical prediction models agree that this feature
will result in increased lift/deformation over the western half of
the state Thursday afternoon. The additional lift from this low will
combine with abundant low-level moisture (precipitable water values
above an inch most areas) and daytime heating to result in numerous
strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall. A flash flood
watch will likely be needed for much of northern and western NM
Thursday but held off for now as to avoid confusion with today's
watch.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Models are still coming into better agreement with the retrograding
upper-level low although there are still some big timing differences
amongst the models. By Thursday night and Friday, models have this
low just entering far southeast NM, and the H5 high is pushed
westward. The low makes slow westward progress south of I-40 on
Friday, and PWATs continue to rise for areas west of the central
mountain chain with values well over an inch. Models have the 00Z
Sat PWAT at KABQ ranging from 1.1 to 1.3", above the 90th percentile
and nearing the daily max of 1.27". The latest WPC Day 3 ERO paints
a broad slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of western NM.
Heavy rain and flash flooding will become an increasing concern,
especially depending on how much rain falls the previous day. The
model differences in the track and timing of the low start to come
into play this weekend. Most guidance is generally moving the low in
a north-northwest direction into central NM. The NAM and GFS track
it into AZ by Saturday while the ECMWF and Canadian are notably
slower and keep the low over NM through the weekend. Regardless, an
active weekend is ahead with widespread showers and thunderstorms,
and heavy rain and flash flooding will be the biggest threat,
especially across western NM.

The low then exits by early next week, and the H5 high reorganizes
to our east although there have been some new model differences in
how fast it builds over OK/TX next week. When this happens, a more
traditional monsoon pattern looks to set up across the area.

33/15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are forecast during the next 7 days thanks
to a slow moving upper-level low that will trigger very heavy
rainfall and flash flooding for much of the area from the central
mountain chain westward Thursday through the weekend.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ203-204-206-207-210-211.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 3:30 AM MDT, 10 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

NMZ201>241-221100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
330 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become locally heavy. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of northern and west
central NM through late this evening. A few storms may also produce
small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and
evening. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy.
This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, with the greatest
risk below recent burn scars and areas where soils are saturated.
Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rain, especially
along and west of the Continental Divide Thursday through Saturday.
A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall totals and flash flooding through
the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq
or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

15

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 12:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1222 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW SEDILLO            35.12N 106.32W
07/20/2021                   BERNALILLO         NM   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TIJERAS ARROYO WAS AROUND 20 FEET WIDE AND 3 FEET DEEP
            FLOWING OVER SEDILLO RD NEAR ROUTE 66. MUD AND LARGE
            ROCKS WASHED OVER SEDILLO ROAD EASTWARD TO FOUR HILLS
            RD. WHERE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING COVERED THE
            INTERSECTION WITH MUD... ROCKS... AND DEBRIS. ONE LARGE
            FENCE WAS DAMAGED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102465

GUYER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Albuquerque, NM issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 7:30 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementABQ30 min
Jul 20, 8:12 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementABQSan Juan63 min
Jul 21, 3:04 AM MDTFlash Flood WatchABQBernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Los Alamos, McKinley, Rio Arriba and 5 more21 hr
Jul 21, 1:54 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryABQMcKinley, San Juan111 min
Jul 21, 2:53 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryABQMora, San Miguel112 min
Jul 21, 3:03 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementABQSandoval27 min
Jul 21, 3:15 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryABQRio Arriba, Sandoval2 hr
Jul 21, 3:26 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryABQMcKinley3 hr
Jul 21, 3:59 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryABQRio Arriba, Taos2 hr
Jul 21, 4:24 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementABQTaos36 min
Jul 21, 5:02 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningABQRio Arriba3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in New Mexico, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.