Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern New Mexico today. Locally heavy rainfall, damaging wind, and
large hail are the primary threats. Another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible over Memorial Day for much
of northern and central New Mexico. Temperatures will be cooler than
normal for most of the forecast area with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon this week. Temperatures will
trend warmer towards the weekend, bringing most locales near to
slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Low level moisture made a run farther west as well as up the Rio
Grande Valley last night and this morning. While some of this has
finally started to mix out this afternoon, enough has survived to
pop a few cells over and near the Valley as well as over Rio Arriba
County. Some of this activity should be dry with gusty erratic
winds. Elsewhere, the threat for strong to severe storms east of the
central mountain chain continues for the rest of the afternoon.
Locally heavy rain remains a threat, although cells have not been as
prolonged in one place has the one this morning north of Tucumcari
to Logan. Considered whether or not the current Flash Flood Watch
needed to be expanded but models indicating mixed messages. The
NAM12 is indicating a west to east oriented swath of precipitation
over portions of east central NM late this evening but the HRRR is
shunting the majority of the heavy precipitation into TX around 00Z.
Therefore will let the current Watch ride. On Memorial Day,
northwest flow is forecast over north central and northeast NM as
low level moisture continues to leak westward, therefore the focus
for heavy rain may be more over the northern mountains and northeast
Memorial Day, where locally heavy rainfall has been inserted in the
weather grids. The severe threat is forecast to be more limited
Memorial Day to southeast NM, at least at this time per the SPC Day
2 Outlook.  Otherwise, low clouds and fog will return to the east
tonight and where high temperatures Memorial Day will be much cooler
than normal.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Upper level low pressure in the Baja will continue to spin in place
on Tuesday as a disturbance digs into northern NM. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be favored across the eastern slopes of the
central mts before pushing off into the eastern plains in the
afternoon. With steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of around 8 deg/km and
CAPE values between 800 to 1200 J/kg, a few storms may become strong
with isolated hail and damaging wind. Wednesday offers a similar
setup as the upper low maintains its anchor in the Baja while the
trough in the Midwest continues to swing its axis to the east.
Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be on tap
for the central mts and eastward as the west remains mostly dry. The
exception might be across portions of southwest NM, where some
residual moisture may help to support some limited convection, though
accumulations of more than a few hundredths of an inch look
unlikely. By Wednesday night, an area of high pressure forms near the
Great Basin, forcing the western portion of the CONUS into a Rex
block. This will allow for moisture to continue to be pulled in from
the Gulf and for the daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
persist through the end of the week. While coverage across areas west
of the central mt chain looks more favorable, it is not very well
resolved by models at this stage in the game. The Rex block degrades
on Saturday, shifting the pattern into a less favorable moisture
regime for the Land of Enchantment. Models diverge at this point,
with the GFS displaying the cutoff low wandering through the Baja
while the ECMWF develops a ridge across the Desert Southwest and the
CMC brings an amplified low in off the coast of CA. Evolution of
these upper level features will dictate the possibility of continued
precipitation coverage towards the end of the long term. Otherwise,
temperatures will trend below average through next week for most
locales, the exception being the west which will be near to above
average. 12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture has leaked into the Rio Grande Valley and
Northwest Mountains last night and this morning, allowing for some
mostly dry showers and storms with erratic winds between the Rio
Grande Valley and Continental Divide through this evening. Moisture
will continue to seep westward tonight and Memorial Day where
chances will increase for wetting rain with any convection.

From the central mountain chain eastward, wetting showers and storms
will continue though Memorial Day. Some of the storms will be strong
to severe during the afternoons and evenings and some may contain
locally heavy rain, which could lead to flooding. Flooding is a
concern for any burn scars along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains for the rest of this afternoon and evening.

Overall, humidities will trend up and temperatures down on Memorial
Day. Areas of poor ventilation are forecast from the central
mountain chain eastward Memorial Day and Tuesday while rates over
the west will be mostly good to excellent.

An upper ridge may begin to dominate the state by the middle of the
week, but enough moisture will linger for daily rounds of showers
and storms, focused over the mountains and east. However, chances
for wetting rain gradually diminish from day to day. High
temperatures will trend warmer again and humidities lower.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Low level moisture is continuing to make a run westward of the
central mt chain, which will result in potential for drier
convection with wind gusts to around 45kt over portions of nw and
west central NM as well as the RGV. From the central mt chain ewd,
lcl MVFR cigs persist with occasional terrain obscurations at 18Z.
These cigs will slowly improve but with showers and tstms rapidly
developing. Some of the convection will be severe with large hail and
wind gusts to 50kt. Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs/vbys in br and
precipitation to develop aft 05Z from the central mt chain to the TX
border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  80  49  83 /  10  30  20  10
Dulce...........................  44  68  38  76 /  10  60  30  30
Cuba............................  49  71  42  77 /  10  50  30  30
Gallup..........................  43  79  39  82 /   5  30  20  20
El Morro........................  42  74  39  77 /   5  40  30  30
Grants..........................  45  75  40  79 /  10  40  30  30
Quemado.........................  46  76  43  78 /   5  30  20  40
Magdalena.......................  53  75  48  76 /  10  40  30  50
Datil...........................  48  74  44  76 /   5  30  20  50
Reserve.........................  47  79  43  84 /   5  30  10  40
Glenwood........................  53  83  51  88 /   0  10   5  30
Chama...........................  40  59  34  68 /  30  80  60  50
Los Alamos......................  50  67  44  71 /  40  80  50  50
Pecos...........................  46  61  42  68 /  60  70  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  43  59  38  65 /  50  80  70  60
Red River.......................  37  50  34  59 /  60  90  70  70
Angel Fire......................  39  55  35  62 /  70  90  80  70
Taos............................  44  63  38  71 /  40  80  60  60
Mora............................  42  56  39  66 /  70  80  70  70
Espanola........................  50  71  45  76 /  30  80  60  40
Santa Fe........................  50  67  44  71 /  40  70  50  50
Santa Fe Airport................  51  70  44  75 /  30  60  50  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  76  52  78 /  20  50  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  77  53  81 /  20  40  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  80  53  83 /  20  40  40  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  78  52  81 /  20  40  40  30
Belen...........................  56  82  51  83 /  10  30  40  40
Bernalillo......................  56  78  50  83 /  20  40  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  57  80  51  82 /  20  40  40  30
Corrales........................  58  78  51  84 /  20  40  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  56  81  50  82 /  10  40  40  40
Placitas........................  55  76  49  78 /  20  50  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  57  77  50  81 /  20  40  40  30
Socorro.........................  57  83  53  85 /  10  30  20  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  70  46  74 /  30  60  40  30
Tijeras.........................  52  74  47  77 /  20  50  40  30
Edgewood........................  48  69  44  76 /  30  60  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  69  43  78 /  30  60  50  40
Clines Corners..................  48  63  44  70 /  50  60  50  40
Mountainair.....................  50  73  45  76 /  20  50  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  51  74  45  76 /  20  40  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  54  79  51  81 /  20  20  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  51  70  47  73 /  30  40  30  50
Capulin.........................  45  54  42  64 /  90  70  60  60
Raton...........................  47  59  44  68 /  80  70  60  70
Springer........................  48  61  45  67 /  80  70  70  60
Las Vegas.......................  45  58  41  67 /  70  70  70  60
Clayton.........................  51  58  47  67 /  90  60  40  40
Roy.............................  49  60  46  65 /  80  70  50  50
Conchas.........................  54  66  51  72 /  80  60  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  53  67  50  70 /  70  70  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  68  51  72 /  80  60  40  30
Clovis..........................  54  67  51  71 /  80  60  50  20
Portales........................  55  70  53  73 /  80  60  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  55  71  53  75 /  70  70  50  30
Roswell.........................  60  78  58  78 /  60  50  40  40
Picacho.........................  55  69  52  73 /  50  40  40  40
Elk.............................  53  72  50  73 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ214-215.

&&

12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
420 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021

NMZ201>241-311100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
420 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and
central New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the eastern half of New Mexico today. Some storms will be strong to
severe with heavy downpours, large hail, and damaging winds. Locally
heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding over recent wildfire
burn scars, especially in the Sangre de Cristo mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again on Memorial
Day with storms expanding into more of central to northwestern New
Mexico. Again, some storms will be capable of heavy downpours, large
hail, and damaging winds.

Thunderstorms will redevelop each day thereafter, generally favoring
the eastern half of the state with a few strong to severe storms
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report their observations of any severe
weather through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

52

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MDT SUN MAY 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             TINNIE                  33.37N 105.23W
05/30/2021  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102338

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021

NMZ228-229-231-232-302100-
Eastern San Miguel County-Far Northeast Highlands-Harding
County-Northeast Highlands-
236 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL...WEST
CENTRAL HARDING AND SOUTHEASTERN MORA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 236 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Conchas Dam, or 21 miles southwest of Mosquero, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bell Ranch.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3546 10411 3556 10462 3592 10446 3571 10384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 228DEG 18KT 3559 10425

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
238 PM MDT SUN MAY 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             1 NW OCATE              36.18N 105.06W
05/30/2021  M1.00 INCH       MORA               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102339

CA

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