Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 PM MDT Fri May 28 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered thunderstorms continue across eastern New Mexico this
afternoon. The threat for strong to severe storms will continue
through about 03Z when the storms should then move into west TX.
Main threats continue to be heavy rain, frequent lightning, large
hail, and damaging winds. Outflow boundaries propagating westward
along with sufficient low-level moisture will cause low-clouds with
MVFR to IFR ceilings to redevelop for areas along and east of the
central mountain starting around 06Z and continuing through mid-
morning. The east canyon wind is still expected at KABQ, but wind
speeds should remain below 35 knots. Therefore, an Airport Weather
Warning is not anticipated.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT Fri May 28 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be the rule during the afternoons
and evenings in eastern New Mexico this evening through at least
Memorial Day. Best chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in the Rio Grande Valley and points west will be on
Memorial Day. High temperatures on Saturday will be near average,
cooling to below average Sunday and into early next week. Slight
chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
East to southeast flow at the surface continues for areas along and
east of the central mountain chain, complements of last night's
backdoor cold front. Upslope flow has allowed for storms to develop
early this afternoon across the northern high terrain, and they are
slowly propagating east-southeast onto the lower elevations. These
storms will be entering an unstable and sheared environment which
will allow them to intensify through this evening. Aloft at 500mb,
westerly flow is present while farther up at 300mb, flow is more
northwesterly. While flow aloft is fairly week with only about 10 to
20 knots at 500mb, the curved hodograph indicates plenty of
directional shear. The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of
instability as well with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE from roughly San
Miguel County southward through Lincoln and Chaves counties. This
environment will support severe or supercell thunderstorms with the
primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. These storms
should develop into multi-cell clusters or linear segments as they
approach the NM/TX border this evening, and both the latest HREF and
HRRR guidance indicate the severe weather threat should be over by
03-04Z as the storms exit into west TX.

Outflow from these storms will surge westward tonight, helping to
reinforce low-level moisture as well as produce an east canyon wind
in the middle RGV similar to last night. Surface winds across the
east will veer more southeasterly on Saturday, limiting the upslope
component that's present today. However, as an H5 low starts to take
shape to our west, a mid-level jet streak will be steered over the
CWA. While directional shear is reduced, speed shear increases
thanks to the jet streak. Additionally, upper-level divergence is
enhanced across the northeast corner of the state which will be
within the left exit region of the jet. With plenty of instability
remaining in place, Saturday will feature another round of strong to
severe storms again for the eastern portions of the CWA,
particularly the northeast where the latest SPC Day 2 Outlook
highlights a slight risk.

The other concern for Saturday will be the possibility for heavy
rainfall across the northeastern plains as well as areas along the
NM/TX border. By Saturday night, a shortwave disturbance over
southern CO will interact with another backdoor cold front. This
area of convergence combined with increased instability along the
front will help additional convection to develop. There also high
confidence with more than sufficient moisture with PWATs near to
even exceeding an inch. These PWATs are above climatology which adds
to the heavy rainfall confidence. Models are in fairly decent
agreement with the potential for heavy rainfall totals although
there are differences in placement. By Sunday morning, there is the
potential for some locations to see upwards of 2-3" of rain which
may produce flash flooding.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
Sprawling surface high pressure centered near the Great Lakes will
keep a southeasterly return flow going across eastern NM Sunday.
At the same time, a weak upper-level low over far southern CA is
forecast to slowly slide southeastward over northern Baja and
northwest Sonora during the day Sunday. This upper-low results in
surface low pressure developing over west-central NM Sunday
afternoon. Another round of strong to severe storms is likely across
much of eastern NM Sunday afternoon/evening with a strong westward
push of moist rain-cooled air surging westward Sunday night. Strong
east winds are forecast for the RGV Sunday night into Monday
morning. GFS and ECWMF agree that Gulf moisture associated with this
surge will be plenty deep to not get scoured out via afternoon
mixing west of the central mountain chain. Memorial Day still looks
like the best day for wetting showers and thunderstorms in the RGV
and points west. Out east, another round of strong to severe storms
is forecast underneath increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of the
above mentioned upper low.

Upper-level trough axis slides east of NM Tuesday. Enough residual
low-level moisture remains for a round of afternoon mainly mountain
convection Tuesday. The northern mountains and northeast
highlands/plains stand the best chances for convection Wednesday
thanks to atmospheric stretching (deformation) between a deep upper-
level trough to the east and a building high pressure ridge to the
west.

15/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are currently no critical fire weather concerns over the next
week. A very active pattern through the holiday weekend will lead to
daily rounds of thunderstorms, especially across eastern NM. Storm
coverage this weekend will favor areas along and east of the central
mountain chain. Across the west, dry conditions prevail with minRHs
in the single digits, however, winds will remain relatively light.
Chances for wetting precipitation increase for central and western
NM Monday and Tuesday as low-level moisture being pushed westward to
the Continental Divide should result in an uptick in storm coverage.
Chances for storms and wetting precipitation will gradually trend
down by the middle of next week as winds continue to remain light.

15

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
353 AM MDT Fri May 28 2021

NMZ201>241-291100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
353 AM MDT Fri May 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon across the eastern plains, where frequent lightning,
damaging winds, and large hail are possible with any passing storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the
eastern plains this weekend where frequent lightning, damaging winds,
and large hail are possible. Saturday's slight risk will focus over
northeastern NM, while Sunday's storm activity will be more
widespread across the eastern plains.

Memorial Day will see the most widespread storm activity, with strong
to severe storms possible again. Slow storm movements and antecedent
wet soils will raise the threat of localized flash flooding mainly
along and east of the central mountain chain. Arroyo flooding will be
possible through the Rio Grande Valley as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

24

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