Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Albuquerque, NM

017 
WWUS55 KABQ 050342
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
942 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMC005-009-011-041-050352-
/O.CAN.KABQ.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-210705T0415Z/
Roosevelt-De Baca-Chaves-Curry-
942 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROOSEVELT...SOUTHEASTERN DE
BACA...NORTHEASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms that prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3416 10307 3386 10327 3374 10391 3437 10433
      3456 10398 3456 10304 3423 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 027DEG 15KT 3437 10361 3442 10308 

$$

DPorter

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Evening convection to continue with storms moving off the mountains
onto the valleys and plains. A few storms will become severe,
producing large hail and high winds. Steering flow taking storms
mostly from N to S, perhaps as far as KROW late this evening. East
and southeast canyon winds will occur again at KSAF and KABQ from
convection east of the Sandia/Manzanos. Conditions improve after
midnight with more patchy low clouds and fog over the eastern plains
Monday morning. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...201 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A marginal to slight risk of storms becoming severe exists across the
eastern plains for storms moving south from the Sangre de Cristo's
and Johnson/Bartlett mesas through the eastern plains late this
afternoon and evening. Tuesday will see the most active storm
coverage with a drying trend occurring Wednesday through Friday.
Storm motions look to remain mainly north to south regardless of the
storm chances each day. Unfortunately, the only spot to mostly miss
out with storm chances remains far northwestern NM near Farmington
each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Afternoon convection has already begun atop the high terrain this
afternoon. Abundant deep layer monsoon moisture remains, although it
has trended down a bit evidenced by this morning's ABQ sounding
sampling 1.01" PWAT. Dewpoints range from the high side on the upper
50s to 60s across the eastern plains the Rio Grande Valley, with 40s
along and west of the divide. Water vapor imagery shows the H5 upper
high now centered over southern UT and the Four Corners area, with a
perturbation sliding south over the high plains along the eastern
periphery of the upper high. This has created stronger N/NNW flow and
shear off the front range of the Rockies into eastern NM, overriding
continued southerly return flow at the surface. This combined with an
increasing instability over the plains has prompted a marginal to
slight risk of storms moving SE off the slopes of the central
mountain chain and Johnson/Bartlett mesas to become severe late this
afternoon and evening. Storm motions will favor a mostly north to
south direction. Severe winds and hail will the be the main severe
weather hazards associated with any storm. Meanwhile, an isolated
flash flood risk remains over the south-central and southwestern
areas where abundant moisture is closest to the center of the upper
high. Storm motions here will remain slow and erratic, but a lack of
shear should produce pulse convection keeping downpours short-
lived. Given this lesser threat, have elected to keep a blank Flash
Flood Watch map with this forecast package.

The overnight will see the severe storm risk gradually taper off near
the midnight hour over east-central and southeastern portions of the
forecast area. Low clouds and patchy fog look to return to parts of
the eastern plains again. Monday sees the upper high slide more over
the forecast area with lesser moisture to work with for storms.
However, it will not be enough of a downtick and scattered storms are
again in the cards to slowly drift off the high terrain during the
afternoon.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The long term period will begin with what looks to be the most active
convective day of the forecast period Tuesday. With the upper high
sliding back west over the Great Basin, northerly flow aloft
overriding surface easterly upslope flow through eastern NM will
steer high terrain storms along and east of the central mountain
chain southward spilling into surrounding lower elevations. Models
continue to depict dry air becoming entrained around the northern
side of the high wrapping around into northern NM beginning
Wednesday. This will bring a downtick in storm coverage mid-week,
especially as the upper high nudges back eastward over NM a bit.
Thankfully this looks to be short-lived with both the GFS and ECMWF
showing the high wobbling back west with northerly flow aloft and
easterly upslope flow setting back up again over eastern NM Saturday.

24/44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Continued
rounds of afternoon storms forming over the high terrain, generally
moving slowly or to the south every day. However, a few storms could
become severe producing severe winds and hail over eastern plains
late this afternoon and evening. Upper high will wobble west and east
from Four Corners to the Great Basin this week, with driest and
warmest days Wednesday through Friday. Return of more active storm
coverage by next weekend. Ventilation will be a mixed bag of poor to
good, with excellent recoveries remaining for many areas except the
far northwest plateau.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ201>241-051100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
323 AM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the eastern
plains of New Mexico from mid-afternoon through late evening. Main
threats will be large hail and damaging straight-line winds. Heavy
rainfall capable of localized flash flooding will also be a concern
across the entire region, especially with slow-moving storms and/or
near and downstream from wildfire burn scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The active monsoon pattern will continue to support elevated storm
coverage and the threat for heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding
for Monday and Tuesday. In fact, there may be an elevated threat for
flash flood potential along and east of the central mountain chain on
Tuesday, especially near and downstream from wildfire burn scars and
across parts of eastern Lincoln and western Chaves counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather, rainfall amounts
and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web
site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ233-050015-
Guadalupe County-
549 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 549 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Cuervo, or 13 miles northeast of Santa Rosa,
moving east at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cuervo.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 283 and 295.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3503 10465 3520 10457 3517 10430 3491 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 289DEG 6KT 3509 10453

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
612 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ234-050045-
Quay County-
612 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN QUAY COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

At 608 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Romero, or 17 miles east of Nara Visa, moving
southwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this severe
thunderstorm as it approaches the New Mexico border.  If the storm
holds together, it should cross into New Mexico with potentially
large hail and damaging winds near I-40 in far eastern Quay County
between 7-8 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Nara Visa.

This includes Interstate 40 near Mile Marker 373.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3523 10331 3566 10318 3574 10305 3574 10304
      3518 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 024DEG 22KT 3565 10279

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
647 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ234-235-050115-
Curry County-Quay County-
647 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL QUAY AND
NORTHEASTERN CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 645 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm 11
miles north of Glenrio, or 20 miles southeast of Nara Visa, moving
southwest at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this very large storm as it approaches the New Mexico border.  If it
holds together, the potential exists for large hail and damaging
winds in far eastern Quay County between 7 and 8 PM MDT.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Jon, Glenrio and Bard.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 357 and 373.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3490 10321 3511 10333 3541 10320 3547 10306
      3546 10304 3491 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 022DEG 28KT 3534 10295

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
728 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ230-050200-
Union County-
728 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM MDT...

At 728 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Seneca, or 14 miles north of Clayton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Clayton Lake State Park, Seneca and Moses.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 426 and 429.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3633 10304 3628 10313 3667 10338
      3677 10310 3669 10300 3650 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 321DEG 27KT 3666 10313

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
831 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ232>234-050300-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Quay County-
831 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL...WEST
CENTRAL QUAY AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

At 830 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Montoya, or 15 miles west of Tucumcari. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montoya.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 310 and 323.
 State Road 104 near Mile Marker 84.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3532 10404 3522 10382 3500 10392 3514 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 034DEG 2KT 3520 10400

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
859 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NMZ234-050330-
Quay County-
859 PM MDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL QUAY COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM MDT...

At 859 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ragland, or 21 miles south of Tucumcari. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ragland and Forrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3496 10370 3498 10345 3487 10340 3472 10364
      3484 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 356DEG 1KT 3487 10365

44